Texas Summer - 2013

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

:uarrow: I'll get in depth later about temps and the link but it is the rarity of this pattern that is the key and when it is occuring.

And oh my goodness taking a run this morning the north wind is going and cool air with no humidity feels spectacular here, it's like mother nature turned on her natural A/C. I honestly cannot remember experiencing this in July.

I miss my cool weather!!!!!

[Tireman4]

Oh my goodness. After Saturday, this is a blessing. I mean a blessing. It was actually CHILLY this morning. Today's run (at 2 pm) should be great.

[wxman57]

Oh my goodness. After Saturday, this is a blessing. I mean a blessing. It was actually CHILLY this morning. Today's run (at 2 pm) should be great.

Glad you are now agreeing with me - it was too darn cold this morning. It'll be even colder tomorrow morning.

[Tireman4]

Oh my goodness. After Saturday, this is a blessing. I mean a blessing. It was actually CHILLY this morning. Today's run (at 2 pm) should be great.

Glad you are now agreeing with me - it was too darn cold this morning. It'll be even colder tomorrow morning.

Ha ha, Dark Lord of Summer. I will say this. If yesterday's 99 can be that comfortable all the time, then I can "live" with it. Notice, I said "live" with it. Let us, however, have our 68 and 67's at night. We can live with that too.

[weatherdude1108]

71 this morning at my place when I left for work. Drier. Felt like Fall!

Looks like the 40% chance for rain for the 4th has "evaporated" and the rain chances get reduced and pushed back further. I saw a story that the combined storage of Lakes Buchanan and Travis has a chance of reaching record low territory for LCRA history come this Fall if things don't change.

http://www.kvue.com/home/Lake-Travis-ma ... 07601.html

But, the silver lining is I'll take Fall temps in July ANY DAY!

[Ntxw]

You mean bad pattern? If it was comparable to Dec 1983 and Dec 1989 cold outbreaks for 500 mb height anomalies on the "page" (what is page again?), wouldn't the highs be like in the 60s and lows maybe high 50s? I have a feeling the flip of the front intrusions will occur around peak hurricane season as Equilibrium needs to occur (ridging in the south and east coast during September hasn't been prominent in a very long time).

Here is the standard anomaly forecasts from the HPC based on model output that NWS FW mentioned.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/training/SDs/

3 SD's below normal is roughly 4% chance of happening and 4 SD's below normal is less than 1%, indicating exceptionally rare event maybe once a 50-100 year event or something (I'll have to dig deeper for that info).

July wall to wall is our hottest month. It is impossibly improbable to get any kind of meaningful front at all, southerly flow will never allow any longer than a 24 hour shift typically to a northerly component. It is usually only wind shifts from rain outflows. While the mid upper 80s can be achieved through persistent rain storms with higher dew-points involved lows rarely go below 70 even on coolest days. Here we are getting almost a work week's worth of near record lows with full sunshine. Waco and areas outside of the urban heat island will challenge all time record lows for July. (DFW's 56 looks pretty safe). The record lowest maximum for us is 71 under steady rain and also the great summer cold week of 1924, who's records we are challenging. No rain this time though so that looks safe too but if there was I suspect we would come close. I'm sure many here can tell you it's just not something we see, we are accustomed to record highs or high minimums especially the past 2 decades, and definitely not the summer.

DFW is not alone, Austin Bergstrom all time July record low is 62 and forecast of mid 60s will come dangerously close. Adjacent Oklahoma is experiencing this as well, there is a major record heat wave out west and somewhere there is record cold adversely and that's targeting the southern and central plains. Houston doesn't get the duration since tropical moisture is coming which will set stage for a rainy period coming,but even for them dry air is nonexistent in the summer months so near to the coast. As mentioned in a previous post patterns like this usually traps vorticity at 5H, there's a candidate moving through Florida that may become a player in Texas later in the week as the mid level low and that feature provides moisture.

[weatherdude1108]

66.1 degrees at the Weatherdude Center at 6:30AM, JULY 2nd.
Oh how I wish for this all Summer.

But I guess if this were normal, it wouldn't be special.

[Ntxw]

Crisp air at the north Texas branch of PWC. May have even felt a little 'wind chill'! July is the new September.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

68.9F here in Sugar Land this morning. Yesterday afternoon felt like AZ in the spring!

[Portastorm]

We tied a record low this morning at ABIA with 63 degrees. At 6:10 am, when the lead meteorologist from the Portastorm Weather Center took his morning 1.5-mile walk, it was 65 glorious degrees! Isn't it amazing to have this weather in early July?!

Nice to see those reports coming in from our North Texas branch as well!

[Rgv20]

It's almost 3 pm July 2 with 86F and a North West wind!!

[South Texas Storms]

The cooler temperatures are definitely nice, but we still need rain! Unfortunately the models have backed off on the surge of tropical moisture this weekend and now I don't know when it will rain again...

[Ntxw]

The cooler temperatures are definitely nice, but we still need rain! Unfortunately the models have backed off on the surge of tropical moisture this weekend and now I don't know when it will rain again...

They have definitely backed off on rain. Things around here are starting to get dry (vegetation). The cooler temperatures probably have helped some but haven't seen a good rain in a couple of weeks now. Could sure use a tropical system about now but the gulf just won't get one going.

[vbhoutex]

The cooler temperatures are definitely nice, but we still need rain! Unfortunately the models have backed off on the surge of tropical moisture this weekend and now I don't know when it will rain again...

They have definitely backed off on rain. Things around here are starting to get dry (vegetation). The cooler temperatures probably have helped some but haven't seen a good rain in a couple of weeks now. Could sure use a tropical system about now but the gulf just won't get one going.

[vbhoutex]

Someone forgot to tell Houston about the cool down. Low at my house was 72f with a high of 98f. Admittedly better than 107f, but really???

[jasons2k]

I love the cooler weather, compared to the 108 I had Saturday. But I'm dying for some rain over here. If this weekend's rain event is a bust, I fear another tree loss this summer.

The hardwoods are wilting bad and the pines have that yellow-grayish tinge to them. Some of them are already starting to turn brown again, just like in 2011. The sad thing with the pines is that it happens almost overnight - poof!

Here are some stats for my house:

2013 rain: 13.06"

Monthly rain: 0.00"
Days without rain: 21
Last measurable rain: .01" on June 12th
Last rain > 1": 1.24" on June 2nd

And that was after recording only .58" in all of May.

[vbhoutex]

WOOHOO!! Long lived popup shower has given us at least half an inch of rain I think(haven't checked the gauge as it is still raining). Cooled us down to 74f from 86f too. That is more rain than I have had in the last three weeks. In fact I just watered the yard yesterday to try and keep my grass from dying. Our pines are dropping needles like crazy. Not sure if they will survive another drought situation.

[KatDaddy]

Very isolated slowing moving thunderstorms possible the next several days due to a large upper level low across the lower Missouri Valley. You are lucky if you experience one. and my yard could use one.

[weatherdude1108]

I sent a photo to my brother on June 29th of the Weather Channel forecast for the 4th of July for my area. It mentioned a high of 90 with a 40% chance of storms.

I sent him a photo today (four short days later) of the Weather Channel forecast for the 4th of July for my area. It mentions a high of 95 with a 20% chance of storms.

Then I see last night on the local news about how Lake Travis is less than a foot from approaching a level it has not been at since 1964 or something, and the forecaster mentioning mid-upper 90s, but how it feels "NICE" because the air is "DRY." It is nice, but the "dry" part is not so "nice" given our water supply situation. If we had a surplus, it would be really nice!

Then I hear on the radio on way to work this morning the announcer enthusiastically saying how it is going to approach 100 this 4th of July weekend. So I got out in my yard this morning and watered the dry spots in my yard, thinking it probably won't rain. I hope I am wrong.

The forecast models predicted rain during this time for at least a week. I guess I'm wondering how the models can go so completely in another direction in a matter of a few days(?).

I know my emotions are getting the best of me right now, but I'm not having much faith in any of the models at this point.

But, I am looking forward to a nice, long 4th of July weekend! In whatever case, have a good 4th of July weekend everyone!

[Portastorm]

Don't despair, weatherdude1108. While I can't verify this, I'm assuming EWX is banking its forecast entirely on the GFS, because the Euro shows a wetter pattern for us. So, it'll be interesting to see which model forecast verifies. Furthermore there could be some nice tropical influences on our weather by early next week. Read what Houston met Jeff Lindner wrote this morning:

Upcoming pattern change will slowly transpire over the next 3-4 days with the parched area hopefully getting some much needed rainfall.

Highly unusual upper air pattern in place across the US with blocking ridges on both coasts and a full latitude trough in the center of the nation. This pattern will slowly retro-grade (move westward) over the next 3-4 days with the trough axis pushing deeper into TX allowing increasing instability and eventually and significant surge of tropical moisture. In addition, a tropical wave currently over the Yucatan will move generally WNW to NW over the next 3-4 days along the eastern side of the eastern side of the trough axis. Latest global forecast models attempt to spin up a surface low pressure from this tropical wave over the W/NW Gulf of Mexico late this weekend and they have been suggesting this off and on for several days now. Eastern sides of upper trough tend to be fairly active areas for thunderstorms to blossom and if upper level wind shear is favorable it is very possible that a surface circulation could close off over the NW Gulf. Any tropical cyclone formation would be on the weak side and likely move inland fairly quickly along the LA or TX coasts.

Should see a few isolated storms again this afternoon and evening and again on Thursday. Surge of tropical moisture nears the area on Friday and expect a little better coverage of storms along the seabreeze. Moisture moves inland over the weekend with good rain chances likely starting Saturday. Still a little uncertain as to how much coverage, but think the eastern areas (E of I-45) will see decent coverage on Saturday and likely the entire area on Sunday. Uncertainty is greater on Sunday as any surface low will tend to help concentrate rainfall near and east of the center. With tropical moisture increasing, rainfall rates will be on the rise also and while the ground is very dry, the prolonged nature of this potential event does warrant some concern.

Could be some significant changes to wind and seas forecast by late in the weekend if a weak tropical system does attempt to form over the NW Gulf. Should see gradually increasing winds out of the ESE and SE and building seas out of the near flat clam now as the SE wind fetch increases with the tropical wave axis.

Would advise residents to pay close attention to the weather over the holiday weekend and remain update to date on potential for rainfall and amounts.