Tornado outbreak possible - March 2-4

[CrazyC83]

Coverage from WAPT Jackson MS: http://www.wapt.com/video/4906971/index.html

[jaxfladude]

Coverage from WAPT Jackson MS: http://www.wapt.com/video/4906971/index.html

Thanks for the link, it looks bad, hope my area does not get even close tomorrow for the JAX, FLA area...

[Brent]

* AT 533 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
HOLLY BLUFF...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROLLING FORK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* AT 547 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CARY. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LOUISE...OR 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF ROLLING FORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

Pretty long-lived cell it looks like...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CST MON MAR 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 92...

VALID 032358Z - 040100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 92 CONTINUES.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE GRADUAL
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS SRN MS WHERE DEW POINTS
ARE NOW RISING INTO THE MID 60S. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE AN OTHERWISE MEAGER INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT...MOST LIKELY THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT FOR MORE ROBUST
SUPERCELLS. EVEN SO...A FEW LONGER LIVED...POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM SERN LA
INTO CNTRL MS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADENING BAND
OF PREFRONTAL STORMS THAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO ECNTRL MS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

..DARROW.. 03/03/2008


ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...

29239216 29769216 29829199 30399196 30409171 31019177
31059157 31629140 32159104 32619104 33449112 33719110
34129089 34119070 33979064 33989045 34079043 34089012
34169009 34168923 34088919 34088819 32078845 29888831
29868846 29418870 29158865 28728890 28628929 28688962
28988976 28799003 28749051 28799111 28939131 29169161
29109195

[CrazyC83]

2 tornadic storms separated by 15 miles right now.

[jaxfladude]

The local TV met on CH12 is still worried about some form of severe weather outbreak for tomorrow (TUESDAY MARCH 4TH), the worst of the worst should be more to the north of JAX, FLA metro, but still the nasty weather will be a factor tomorrow.....
=======================
PRAYERS CONTINUE FOR ALL....
=======================

[CrazyC83]

2317 4 ESE CARY SHARKEY MS 3278 9086 BRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWN JUST ESE OF CARY. (JAN)

Yeah tomorrow is anyone's guess.

[CrazyC83]

Risk for tonight down to SLGT. Looks like no major outbreak tonight (a relief to many considering how bad this year has been), but tomorrow is a new day.

[tidesong]

How's it looking for New Orleans with this line?

[CrazyC83]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST MON MAR 03 2008

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN
VALLEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ATTM INVOF SURFACE FRONT/AHEAD
OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH...WITH A SMALLER/EMBEDDED AREA OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM NRN MS/SWRN TN SWD TO THE LA GULF COAST. BROKEN
CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS NOW EXTENDS FROM FAR
WRN MS SWD INTO S CENTRAL LA...WITH OTHER/MORE ISOLATED ROTATING
STORMS E OF THE LINE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA AND CENTRAL/SRN MS.

WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS
ERN MS AND INTO AL...CONTINUED SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PER 00Z RAOBS
AND LATEST VWPS SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH EXTREME SHEAR AND MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER INTO SERN LA/SRN MS/SRN AL COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR TWO...IT APPEARS NOW THAT COVERAGE OF SEVERE
THREAT WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF A
MODERATE RISK. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY LINGER HOWEVER THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD...INTO E CENTRAL AND SERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
THROUGH 04/12Z.

..GOSS.. 03/04/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0107Z (8:07PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Weatherfreak14]

The local TV met on CH12 is still worried about some form of severe weather outbreak for tomorrow (TUESDAY MARCH 4TH), the worst of the worst should be more to the north of JAX, FLA metro, but still the nasty weather will be a factor tomorrow.....
=======================
PRAYERS CONTINUE FOR ALL....
=======================

Im just NE of SAV ga and im going out chasing tommrow afternoon i hope to find something. My prayers are for all in these storms path. I think the target tommrow will be SE south Carolinia with a possible strong tornado ,Large Hail.

[baygirl_1]

And so it begins for us in Alabama (and Mississippi and Florida):

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 93
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM UNTIL
500 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CENTREVILLE ALABAMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 92...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WW OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF VERY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST...BUT SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...EVANS

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CST MON MAR 03 2008

WT 0093
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

So, it may not be as bad as they thought it would be earlier today, but hey-- one tornado is all it takes to cause major problems. It's been so windy all night long here. You can almost feel the nasty weather that is coming. It doesn't help that Alan Sealls, my favorite local meteorologist, is on TV (in his shirt sleeves-- no jacket-- gasp!) telling us that things are going to get very bumpy around here after midnight. Hunkering down now....

[Bunkertor]

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1037 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

MSC067-040445-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0091.000000T0000Z-080304T0445Z/
JONES MS-
1037 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CST FOR JONES
COUNTY...

AT 1037 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELLISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SANDERSVILLE AND 6 MILES WEST OF MILL CREEK BY 1045 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

[baygirl_1]

I was just on the phone with my nephew in Tuscaloosa about an hour or so ago and they were "hunkering down" too. Looks like the nasty weather is just to their southwest (in the Aliceville area):

TORNADO WARNING
ALC063-107-119-040530-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0060.080304T0451Z-080304T0530Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 PM CST MON MAR 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ALICEVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 1130 PM CST
* AT 1048 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES WEST OF
EMELLE...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF CUBA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF EMELLE BY 1100 PM CST...
GEIGER BY 1105 PM CST...
WARSAW BY 1115 PM CST...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST GREENE BY 1120 PM CST...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALICEVILLE BY 1125 PM CST...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.
LAT...LON 3276 8839 3283 8837 3297 8836 3317 8815
3299 8794 3282 8818 3279 8820 3271 8833
3266 8838 3268 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 0451Z 225DEG 54KT 3270 8852

[tidesong]

If anyone's interested, here's a link to streaming TV from Birmingham/Tuscaloosa: http://nbc13.com/gulfcoastwest/vtm/news/live_video.html

I can't get it to work, but I'm on a Mac that doesn't always cooperate.

[HURAKAN]

[Bunkertor]

If anyone's interested, here's a link to streaming TV from Birmingham/Tuscaloosa: http://nbc13.com/gulfcoastwest/vtm/news/live_video.html

I can't get it to work, but I'm on a Mac that doesn't always cooperate.

[Brent]

ABC 33/40 before they went off a few minutes ago mentioned major damage at Camp Shelby in Forrest County, MS with 5 people injured. Storm is now near Quitman and about to cross into Choctaw County, AL.

[HarlequinBoy]

Yeah, 14 injured at Camp Shelby when a barracks was heavily damaged.

As is typical in MS at least several of the wind reports will likely be classified as tornadoes when they survey.