STORM2K

txtwister78 wrote:Good news is outside of the one big storm west of Devine, most of the activity seems to be behaving. Morning cloud cover and storm modes may have helped to limit significant hail threat so far.

Bring on the rain though!

Edwards Limestone wrote:

txtwister78 wrote:Good news is outside of the one big storm west of Devine, most of the activity seems to be behaving. Morning cloud cover and storm modes may have helped to limit significant hail threat so far.

Bring on the rain though!

Yeah it looks like most of the severe hail will miss SA metro to the south which is good news.

txtwister78 wrote:

Edwards Limestone wrote:

txtwister78 wrote:Good news is outside of the one big storm west of Devine, most of the activity seems to be behaving. Morning cloud cover and storm modes may have helped to limit significant hail threat so far.

Bring on the rain though!

Yeah it looks like most of the severe hail will miss SA metro to the south which is good news.

Hope so. Still a few out west near Sabinal/Uvalde that we need to watch, but the one approaching Devine means business. Another storm going up over far west Bexar just east of Castroville.

Mesoscale Discussion 0766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...

Valid 131645Z - 131815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail will continue with ongoing
supercells. Severe/damaging winds should become an increasing
concern this afternoon as convection attempts to grow upscale into a
bowing cluster.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing to the south of the San
Antonio TX metro as of 1635Z. With extreme instability present
(4000+ J/kg MUCAPE), along with strong deep-layer shear of 45-50 kt,
a supercell mode will likely be maintained in the short term. Steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on area 12Z soundings from DRT/CRP/BRO
will aid robust updraft accelerations and a threat for large to very
large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. To the north
of this supercell into central TX, destructive updraft
interference/interactions have occurred, with a messier storm mode
observed and a lesser threat for large hail. With time, expectations
are for convection to gradually grow upscale into a small bowing
cluster as activity continues eastward through the afternoon. A
greater threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph should exist
once this mode transition occurs.

..Gleason.. 05/13/2024

Ntxw wrote:Glad our friends in S-C Texas getting rain this morning. That's a hail core south of SA. Should be some more opportunities before climo shifts.

20.44" for the year so far at DFW, normal is 16.59". Most areas east and south of the I-35 corridor are running 25"+. Think the arrow is pointing towards a 1973, 2007, 2020 type La Nina transition from El Nino. Where the prior year was dry and delayed Nino and the La Nina summer was the wet, cool one.

CaptinCrunch wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Glad our friends in S-C Texas getting rain this morning. That's a hail core south of SA. Should be some more opportunities before climo shifts.

20.44" for the year so far at DFW, normal is 16.59". Most areas east and south of the I-35 corridor are running 25"+. Think the arrow is pointing towards a 1973, 2007, 2020 type La Nina transition from El Nino. Where the prior year was dry and delayed Nino and the La Nina summer was the wet, cool one.

That would be welcomed after last years hot and dry Summer.

txtwister78 wrote:Biggest rainfall winner so far today stretches from just south of Uvalde to Devine. Radar estimates have anywhere from 2-4 inches of rain across that region. In San Antonio spotty areas of 1-2 inches mainly across western, downtown and eastern sections.

bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GNhr6_ybEAAC4f9?format=jpg&name=small

snownado wrote:00z GFS in particular is looking quite torchy for the Southern Plains starting this weekend through the end of May.

Obviously the models will continue to struggle with the exact details over the next several days and potential MCS along the edges will complicate things the further north one is, but with a deeply -PNA and the MJO headed into Phase 4, the signal pattern-wise for that well-advertised Mexican heat ridge to expand/settle NE is definitely there.

And with it in all likelihood being a dirty ridge, it's going to be an oppressively muggy one too (similar to last June).

For the folks down in South/Central Texas, better savor the last of your widespread rain / cloud cover chances this week while you can...

txtwister78 wrote:

snownado wrote:00z GFS in particular is looking quite torchy for the Southern Plains starting this weekend through the end of May.

Obviously the models will continue to struggle with the exact details over the next several days and potential MCS along the edges will complicate things the further north one is, but with a deeply -PNA and the MJO headed into Phase 4, the signal pattern-wise for that well-advertised Mexican heat ridge to expand/settle NE is definitely there.

And with it in all likelihood being a dirty ridge, it's going to be an oppressively muggy one too (similar to last June).

For the folks down in South/Central Texas, better savor the last of your widespread rain / cloud cover chances this week while you can...

In the words of the legendary college football gameday broadcaster and former coach Lee Corso..."Not so fast my friend".

I think the last 7-10 days of May could bring us one more window of some active weather before we truly get into the doldrums of a dry summer heat pattern down here (tropical impacts notwithstanding). Central and South-Central Texas is no stranger to seeing storms late into May and so I'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet after Thursday partly because we need the rain and climatology is on my side. Lol.

Pattern does still look active though for portions of Texas as it stands today. Hopefully we can rally late.