Texas Fall 2013

[ravyrn]

So... is the low that was supposed to track through Texas current on on the NM/CO border?

[Kelarie]

Got to my car this morning and a lovely gaze of ice had settled on it. Freezing rain on Texas side of Texarkana.

[Ntxw]

Time to say it, in terms of what fell this was a bust. GFS' conservatism came out the winner. Shallow arctic air masses is just not good enough to work with and miss often. On to the next storm second week of December!

Very, very cold air I'm more certain with the next one. As for next storm we'll have to wait and see. This was good practice and glad to see everyone back and posting! Long winter ahead for wxman57, blankets and all.

[wxman57]

RUC still shows a large above freezing layer around 6000-10000 ft over Dallas/Ft. Worth. Precip is coming to an end there.

[RedRiverRefuge]

Ignorant question.. On FWD discussion it mentioned something about a Trowal feature. ie when UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO WRAP UP A TROWAL FEATURE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW BEFORE IT MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. I know models aren't supporting this according to CAVY but was just curious what one "looks" like or what would i see in the models etc. Anybody up for trying to explain this phenomena in laymens terms? If not i can go search it out on the web. Just thought maybe others would be curious as well. thanks

[gboudx]

Hah, I had to look it up. Here ya go if none of our experts can explain in simple terms.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/290

http://marrella.meteor.wisc.edu/cyclwkshp.html

[mmbrown10]

well i know this storm wasn't what we thought. But just looked at the GFS models and they are still hinting potential for some snow in our southeastern counties. But if the ULL tracks a little more north of the current track then we will have some snow showers in the southern part of north Texas (I-30 South). Could be a dusting could be up to an inch, and who knows if someone gets a good snow-band then maybe it will be 8 inches!

Matt

[mmbrown10]

well i know this storm wasn't what we thought. But just looked at the GFS models and they are still hinting potential for some snow in our southeastern counties. But if the ULL tracks a little more north of the current track then we will have some snow showers in the southern part of north Texas (I-30 South). Could be a dusting could be up to an inch, and who knows if someone gets a good snow-band then maybe it will be 8 inches!

Matt

and The NAM is hinting this too!

[RedRiverRefuge]

Hah, I had to look it up. Here ya go if none of our experts can explain in simple terms.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/290

http://marrella.meteor.wisc.edu/cyclwkshp.html

Thanks gboudx !!!

[Tireman4]

39 and a chilly rain in Humble.....

[horselattitudesfarm]

For what it's worth, if this does fail to materialize into anything significant overnight, then IMO, yes it's an official bust.

We were under Winter Storm Watches and Warnings. And more than 20 pages of the "Texas Fall" thread have been dedicated to this event.

And now there may be nothing more than a little ice in the trees or on vehicle windows to talk about in the morning.

The cold weather has been nice though.

Uh.....was there something I mentioned about a 'watched-pot' last night in one of my posts?

[horselattitudesfarm]

Just a light drizzly rain here last night and this morning. Not even enough to get an Armadillo's bottom wet. We totaled out about .3" for the multi-day event. By the way, Lake Lavon is now down to about 47% full. I'm in hopes they'll get Texoma on-line come January.

[iorange55]

Well, we have some ice on the tree limbs and mailboxes...that's enough to warrant a winter storm warning, right?

You can't win 'em all, folks! I'm just glad that we avoided the major freezing rain event.

[weatherdude1108]

I haven't been studying models like most folks on here, but I would say for the Austin metro area, based on casual observations and historical trends, my loose prediction is occasional cold light to moderate rain on Sunday, changing to an occasional sleet mix in the middle of the night Monday morning.

Rain off and on most of Monday, then rain with a few flurries/sleet pellets mixed in Monday night into Tuesday morning, turning to all rain late Tuesday morning. Rain tapering to drizzle with peeks of Sun towards dusk Tuesday.

May have a few issues with slush on the overpasses, but the roads in contact with the ground will be fine. I think there is sufficient ground warmth with how early in the season it is, and the fact that it was in the 80s and 90s within the past week for a few days heating the ground, which could help to act as a kind of a latent geothermal conductor onto the surface during this cold snap, reducing icing risk.

I think the main issues or annoyances will be the leftover sand on the bridges, scattering dust everywhere and all over your vehicle with traffic passing over it once it dries up.

Anyway, my two pesos. Probably way off, but can't hurt to try. Every storm/event is different.
All I know my work may close Monday if we get freezing drizzle! Hope so!

Guess I'm not too far off. Work not closed today. Bummer!

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR SO. CNTL TX.

.ABUNDANT RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO WARM TEMPS & LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES TO BRING SURFACE TEMPS TO ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF SO. CNTL TX THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SLEET WILL OCCASIONALLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING.ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED OVER SO. CNTL TX. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.MAINLY RAIN & SNOW FOR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER.PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

TXZ171>173-184>192-206-251500-
/O.CAN.KEWX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-131125T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.LLANO.BURNET.GEORGETOWN.
ROCKSPRINGS.LEAKEY.KERRVILLE.BANDERA.FREDERICKSBURG.
BOERNE.BLANCO.SAN MARCOS.AUSTIN.NEW BRAUNFELS
800 AM CST MON NOV 25 2013

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO RISE.WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. BY 11 AM.ALL PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CNTL TX SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

$$

[mmbrown10]

pretty excited for our next possible system in 2 weeks! some cold air filtering down trying to see if it will get an ULL to help get this storm on track so we can get something to talk about on here, cause besides tonight were gonna have to wait till then

[Portastorm]

Monday Morning Musings from the Portastorm Weather Center in chilly, wet southwest Travis County

Hey gang, I just came in the house from building a Cold Rain Man with the neighborhood kids. I just hate how wet it gets our gloves though.

Let me own up and say I was wrong about the Austin-area weather. I really thought we'd see more of a wintry mix threat than what we did. As I mentioned several times, I knew we were always on the cusp and I wasn't really too bullish on Austin seeing major winter action from this event. Nevertheless, I didn't expect we'd have a cold rain almost universally here. But that's ok ... rain is ALWAYS good!

Forecasting winter weather in Texas is tough and it gets tougher the more complicated the pattern. We've had a lot of good action in this thread over the last 3-4 days and I hope it continues. As Ntxw and orangeblood and srainhoutx and myself have posted ... the period ahead has a LOT of potential and I'm certain this won't be the last time the I-35 corridor flirts with a major winter storm.

This has been a good learning lesson for all of us. We've learned more about wintry precip and how the vertical profiles in the air impact those precip types. We've learned a little about model bias. And we've learned from our fellow S2Kers here about some good weblinks and Facebook pages focusing on Texas weather (Texas Storm Chasers, Texas Weather Board). All in all, that's a win to me!

[srainhoutx]

In ejoyed being around again after a couple of years away. I promise to make an appearance more often and appreciate my friends Portastorm and wxman57 very much...

Morning Update from Jeff:

Winter Storm in progress over TX this morning with ice/snow across much of western TX extending into the Hill Country and eastward to just west of Fort Worth.

Locally widespread rainfall has developed as expected over the region with amounts thus far in the .25 to .75 of an inch range across the area. Temperatures have cooled into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s with the onset of the rainfall and evaporative cooling, but this process has now ended and the low level thermal profile is now isothermal. Expect temperatures to hold around 40 degrees the entire day and into tonight. Soundings this morning at both LCH and CRP show the freezing level way up at around 12,000 ft with significant warming from the surface to about 800mb. This sounding supports nothing more than cold rain and there have been no sleet reports across SE TX this morning.

Today:

Upper level storm system over NM/NW TX will dive SE toward C TX and the middle TX coast by early Tuesday. This will drive the formation of a surface low off of Brownsville which is underway at this time. Bands of rainfall will continue to develop as warm moist Gulf air is forced up and over the cold arctic dome at the surface. 10C 850mb temperature line appears to match well with the model QPF of heavier rainfall amounts running near/just south of US 59. In fact the radar trends this morning appear to be lining up very well with short term model guidance from yesterday evening suggesting the heaviest rains near/just south of US 59. May see a brief break in the widespread rainfall this afternoon late before the onset of strong dynamical forcing tonight associated with the main upper level storm system.

Tonight-Tuesday Midday:

Strong upper level system drops SE in an unusual track across TX. Impressive 110kt mid level jet streak rounds the base of this feature after dark out of NE MX and carves across the coastal bend into SE TX. Expect strong forcing to generate more rainfall especially along the coast. Surface low off of Brownsville currently will track NE and across our southern coastal waters tonight with winds shifting from the NE to N and NW with time. This feature will help draw the highest moisture levels eastward which becomes very important by early Tuesday.

P-type:

Cold temperatures aloft begin to overspread the region tonight with the most notable cooling noted across our western and northern counties. This cooling is in response to the cold pocket associated with the core of the upper level low. HRRR forecast soundings for College Station at 600am Tuesday show nearly the entire column (except maybe the lowest 1,000ft) falling below freezing and saturated below 800mb with a large dry layer above that. As is usually the case in this area the “great” battle between the arriving cold air aloft and the amount of available moisture will determine if any frozen precipitation falls. Forecast soundings certainly show significant cooling of the air column between midnight and 600am north of a Columbus to Conroe to Livingston line, but at the same time moisture is rapidly being carried eastward away from the area. With that said, the position of the core of the upper level feature potentially just SW of the area between Houston and Matagorda Bay could result in some moisture being wrapped back NW around the northern side of the upper low and falling as snow.

It is fairly rare to have P-type rain to snow over SE TX with upper level lows as they usually track just north of the area over N TX. Usually the cold air is lagging the moisture and the rain shuts off prior to it being cold enough for snow. Of the 3 major snow events in the last decade (Dec 04, Dec 08, Dec 09) only the Dec 08 event shows some similarities to the potential for Tuesday morning and that event was pretty much a surprise and dropped upwards of 6 inches of snow in Liberty County.

For now think that most of the moisture will have been carried east of the area by the time the air column can support the changeover. With that said would not be surprised to see some light snow reports N and W of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston early Tuesday. Will have to keep a close eye on this part of the forecast this afternoon and evening as the short range guidance can better resolve this period to determine if any greater amounts of moisture would be present which would increase the chances for snow. Even if snow does fall, the surface temperatures are expected to remain above freezing resulting in melting on contact with the ground.

Wednesday-Friday:

Winter storm moves east of the state with dry cold NW flow in control. Clearing skies on Wednesday will set the stage for what appears to be a fairly widespread freeze on Thanksgiving morning. Could see lows well below freezing over our northeast counties with many areas falling into the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. Some area have yet to freeze this fall so a freezing warning will likely be needed. High temperatures should finally break 50 on Thanksgiving day and may reach close to 60 on Friday.

Note: while it seems like a long time ago, the high temperature for Houston last Sunday was a toasty 85 degrees, the high yesterday a week later was 50.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

40 and dumping with rain in Sugar Land

[Big O]

Joe B stated this morning that yesterday's number one analog was December 21, 1983. For those that don't remember, this was a historic Arctic outbreak for Texas. He goes on to show European ensemble 10-15 day, and its upper air pattern is remarkably similar to this analog. Finally, he says that he has informed his clients about the potential for a "huge Arctic outbreak." The key is the anomalously strong ridging in Alaska. For those who feel down because of the lack of wintry precipitation with the current system, do not despair; their is increasing "chatter" (term taken from Srain) of a significant Arctic intrusion beginning on or around December 5, and my thinking is that it could last at least a week, with an undercutting jet stream possibly injecting "moisture" into the potentially frigid air mass.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Could call Big O. Its going to be a cold one.

Im still hanging on to the possibility for snow here in SE Tx. Going to be a long night.