C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains
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Portastorm
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:I am hoping so bad for the scenario euro has about a week out. We need a pacific TC development early next week so that the predicted western trough can pull moisture due northeast into Texas. If only...
{Image deleted for this response}
Don't lose hope yet Ntxw ... both the 0z GFS and Euro show an El Nino-like massive trough entering the picture in about six days. If that verifies and continues moving eastbound, we should have a very healthy rain event.
It has been amazing how we in Austin have missed all the rain this week. It's been north, east, south, and west of us ... but nothing here. There must be a mini cockroach ridge of death overhead!
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Portastorm
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Re: C/S TX Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!
By the way, this "lovely" article ran in today's (9.30.11) Austin American-Statesman:
CURRENT DROUGHT COULD BECOME WORST EVER, CLIMATOLOGIST SAYS
Texas could be in the midst of a drought the history books have never seen, meaning water planners need to prepare for worse than what they've seen, state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said Thursday.
The current drought could last until 2020, because the region's climate is in the middle of a 20- to 40-year dry phase, Nielsen-Gammon said.
Water planners, including state agencies and river authorities, have long since made water plans based on the drought of record, a nearly 10-year dry spell in the 1940s and 1950s.
"Sooner or later there will be a drought that's worse" (than the drought of record), Nielsen-Gammon said. "The planning needs to be able to cover the bases not just for the worst that we've seen but also have a plan going forward in case conditions become worse than that."
The state's water development board, which conducts long-term water planning, declined to comment on whether the benchmark should be raised to accommodate worse droughts than the drought of record.
The Lower Colorado River Authority, Austin's primary water provider, said through a spokeswoman that it sticks to the water development board's methods. "If conditions change and there is a new drought of record, we will use that as the new standard," LCRA spokeswoman Clara Tuma said in an email.
The LCRA, which recently announced a plan that would reduce or eliminate water to rice farmers if faced with a worsened drought, forecasts the current drought could be declared the worst on record by spring.
The entire state is in some form of drought, with more than 85 percent in an exceptional drought, the worst form, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Lake Travis is at 629.15 feet above mean sea level, more than 35 feet below the September average of 664.70 feet, with Austin having the driest October-to-August period on record.
"Basically, we've gone from a period in the '80s and '90s when we had a lot of rain ... to a dry period that has been around for about 10 years," he said.
In the past decade, Texas has faced several tough years of drought, resulting in billions of dollars in losses to agriculture. Five of the past seven years, Nielsen-Gammon said, have been drought years.
However, there is no reliable predictor for long-term drought, he said. The LCRA's chief meteorologist, Bob Rose, agreed, saying things could change as early as next year.
"As we get into spring, the La Niña-El Niño thing changes pretty quickly," said Rose, explaining the expected La Niña pattern in 2012 will be considerably weaker than this year's.
"We could get a more normal pattern of rain in the springtime," Rose said.
Regardless of whether this current drought will last for the next few months or almost a decade, Rose and Nielsen-Gammon both said the state should expect a generally drier climate.
"I think he (Nielsen-Gammon) is on to something that, yeah, we are going to see more droughts (in the next decade)," Rose said. But, "nobody can predict a multiyear drought."
Rising global temperatures over the past 30 years could also play a role in exacerbating a continued drought, Nielsen-Gammon said. As drought continues and temperatures rise, water on reservoirs evaporate faster and plants need more water to survive, he said.
This year's drought was estimated to have caused $5.2 billion in agricultural losses through August.
CURRENT DROUGHT COULD BECOME WORST EVER, CLIMATOLOGIST SAYS
Texas could be in the midst of a drought the history books have never seen, meaning water planners need to prepare for worse than what they've seen, state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said Thursday.
The current drought could last until 2020, because the region's climate is in the middle of a 20- to 40-year dry phase, Nielsen-Gammon said.
Water planners, including state agencies and river authorities, have long since made water plans based on the drought of record, a nearly 10-year dry spell in the 1940s and 1950s.
"Sooner or later there will be a drought that's worse" (than the drought of record), Nielsen-Gammon said. "The planning needs to be able to cover the bases not just for the worst that we've seen but also have a plan going forward in case conditions become worse than that."
The state's water development board, which conducts long-term water planning, declined to comment on whether the benchmark should be raised to accommodate worse droughts than the drought of record.
The Lower Colorado River Authority, Austin's primary water provider, said through a spokeswoman that it sticks to the water development board's methods. "If conditions change and there is a new drought of record, we will use that as the new standard," LCRA spokeswoman Clara Tuma said in an email.
The LCRA, which recently announced a plan that would reduce or eliminate water to rice farmers if faced with a worsened drought, forecasts the current drought could be declared the worst on record by spring.
The entire state is in some form of drought, with more than 85 percent in an exceptional drought, the worst form, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Lake Travis is at 629.15 feet above mean sea level, more than 35 feet below the September average of 664.70 feet, with Austin having the driest October-to-August period on record.
"Basically, we've gone from a period in the '80s and '90s when we had a lot of rain ... to a dry period that has been around for about 10 years," he said.
In the past decade, Texas has faced several tough years of drought, resulting in billions of dollars in losses to agriculture. Five of the past seven years, Nielsen-Gammon said, have been drought years.
However, there is no reliable predictor for long-term drought, he said. The LCRA's chief meteorologist, Bob Rose, agreed, saying things could change as early as next year.
"As we get into spring, the La Niña-El Niño thing changes pretty quickly," said Rose, explaining the expected La Niña pattern in 2012 will be considerably weaker than this year's.
"We could get a more normal pattern of rain in the springtime," Rose said.
Regardless of whether this current drought will last for the next few months or almost a decade, Rose and Nielsen-Gammon both said the state should expect a generally drier climate.
"I think he (Nielsen-Gammon) is on to something that, yeah, we are going to see more droughts (in the next decade)," Rose said. But, "nobody can predict a multiyear drought."
Rising global temperatures over the past 30 years could also play a role in exacerbating a continued drought, Nielsen-Gammon said. As drought continues and temperatures rise, water on reservoirs evaporate faster and plants need more water to survive, he said.
This year's drought was estimated to have caused $5.2 billion in agricultural losses through August.
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Rgv20
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I do not know if it was posted but John Nielsen-Gammon wrote a very informative blog earlier in September. Here is the link http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2011/09/texas-drought-and-global-warming/
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Re: C/S TX Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!
Isn't this something. It rains just about everywhere (along with actual cool temps for fall) EXCEPT Texas. Check out Vegas and Phoenix for this week...
Las Vegas...struggles to get into the 60s!
Phoenix shortly after
Meanwhile, more warm days and somewhat cool mornings with NO rain in sight for the needy areas of Texas. Unless you want to take the ECMWF to heart which is more optimistic than the GFS.
Not all bad news though, the MJO is about to kick up full fledged. Something not seen since last winter. This increases the chances of the subtropical jet bringing impulses to help us out hopefully! Got to get there first.
Las Vegas...struggles to get into the 60s!
Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Windy, with a southwest wind 13 to 16 mph increasing to between 29 and 32 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.
Wednesday Night: Rain. Low around 60. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.
Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Phoenix shortly after
Thursday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 77.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Meanwhile, more warm days and somewhat cool mornings with NO rain in sight for the needy areas of Texas. Unless you want to take the ECMWF to heart which is more optimistic than the GFS.
Not all bad news though, the MJO is about to kick up full fledged. Something not seen since last winter. This increases the chances of the subtropical jet bringing impulses to help us out hopefully! Got to get there first.
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Portastorm
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Re: C/S TX Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!
This "lovely" tidbit from KXAN Weather:
We have now experienced the driest 12 months in Austin history, with only 11.20" of rain. Average is over 34". Records began in 1856.
We have now experienced the driest 12 months in Austin history, with only 11.20" of rain. Average is over 34". Records began in 1856.
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vbhoutex
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Re:
ndale wrote:New fire in Bastrop. This newest fire today has spread from 2 acres to 800 acres
Update from Bastrop County OEM in Texas Wildfires thread.
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GFS has quietly been trending further east and south with the trough. What was mainly a panhandle of TX north rain event now extends from the hill country into central Oklahoma. It develops a surface low in northern Mexico to aid some squeeze! Fluent times like this should be watched closely as these troughs can be unpredictable at times, hopefully we get heavy rains in the areas currently dealing with new fires. Don't give up hope!
12z GFS today up to 153 hrs.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
12z GFS today up to 153 hrs.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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somethingfunny
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Re:
somethingfunny wrote:Let's keep our eyes on Jova and Irwin in the eastern Pacific. Encouraging tracks forecasted for them.
That could be our source of rain. Sometimes East Pacific hurricanes cause flood in Texas, like in 1981, 1982, 1994, and 1998.
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somethingfunny
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Not that I'm forgetting about this weekend's rain out west (finally!), but I'm scouring the regional AFDs for suggestions of tropical deluges. 
WFO Corpus Christi wrote:THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ON MONDAY BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF MEXICO SHOULD KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. ECMWF/GFS SHOW POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FOR TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES BY THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. 12Z EMCWF SHOWS ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND FORMS A LOW OVER THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY SENDING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. WILL WAIT AND SEE ON POSSIBLE COOL AIR ARRIVAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
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vbhoutex
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Re: C/S TX Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!
We're up over 2" here in W Houston and pouring. I hope you guys have had a good rain also!! Radar seemed to indicate you were. We're not going to break the drought, but at least there will be a small dent in it. 
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Portastorm
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Re: C/S TX Weather: Extreme Fire Danger!
vbhoutex wrote:We're up over 2" here in W Houston and pouring. I hope you guys have had a good rain also!! Radar seemed to indicate you were. We're not going to break the drought, but at least there will be a small dent in it.
Based on an LCRA hydromet station close to the Portastorm Weather Center, we received a little more than 2 inches of glorious rainfall!
Very happy to see our friends in southeast Texas are enjoying similar!
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