C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains

[Rgv20]

It looks like we are going to at least have normal temperatures thru the next 7 days! In fact GFS Ensembles Temperature Departures shows a good portion of North and Central Texas having below normal temperatures thru the next 7 days. By Thursday and Friday it looks like Dallas is going to have some trouble reaching 80F!! I think I have to move to the Texas Winter Thread!

6zGFS Ensembles Temperature Departures thru 7 days.


As far as rain goes the 12zGFS total precipitation thru 8 days does not show a whole lot but at least their is some green on Texas. The 12zECMWF has basically the same Rainfall amounts as the GFS thru 8 days.

[Shoshana]

Ohhh. thunder! No rain tho.

[Shoshana]

Never did get any rain. At all. Still don't have a rain gauge but the doggie pool stayed dry.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow, it looks like my house in SA was in the bulls-eye for rainfall across most of Texas. My dad said we got about 5 inches of rain from this event and even some pea size hail with the storms on Sunday evening. PRAISE THE LORD!!!!
Hopefully more widespread rain is on the way soon for all of Texas!

[Ntxw]

Don't see significant statewide in the 7 days. Hilary in the EPAC could be of interest down the road. Lets pray she streams lots of moisture into Texas to at least spark storms...

[horselattitudesfarm]

Latest forecast discussion:

"THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS
HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM THE HANDLING OF
A PIECE OF ENERGY WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM A WEST COAST TROF AND
MOVES INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS OFFERED A
COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. ONE
CUTS THIS DISTURBANCE OFF OVER TEXAS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WHILE THE OTHER INTERACTS IT WITH A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS TEXAS. GIVEN SOME SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF...WILL LEAN
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL WEST OF
NORTH TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
IT."

Which will it be?! Feelin' lucky?....should we bet?

[vbhoutex]

This is the latest from Jeff Lindner. It affects portions of C/S TX also.

Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be felt on Sunday across the region.

Red Flag Warnings may be required.

Potential growing for wind driven wildfires on Sunday as strong SW winds of 15-25mph develop across the region and combine with afternoon RH values of 20-30%. While rains last weekend have resulted in some modest green up of surface grasses, overall fuels remain extremely dry and KBDI values continue above 700 or in the extremely dangerous range. While fire starts may be harder given the slight green up, if a fire develops strong winds will result in explosive and rapid growth. Fires over the past few months have shown rapid spread in pine forest plantation where (although green) the pines have become extremely flammable due to the drought conditions.

Worst conditions are expected along and north of a line from Columbus to Spring to Trinity especially in the area along a SE line from Austin to Columbus where rains did not fall last weekend.

Residents across the region should be aware of the fire weather conditions and have a wildfire plan in place and ready to use. You may only have minutes to gather your things and leave should a wildfire approach your area.

Extended:

Watching closely the extended range as another frontal boundary may head for the western Gulf mid next week and potentially interact with now powerful Hurricane Hillary in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This is a classic heavy rainfall pattern for Texas….if all the pieces can fall into the correct place. Still much uncertainty on where and how much of the moisture from this hurricane could be drawn NE across TX, but at this point there is at least some hope.

[Shoshana]

(Mabry) Sun Day 86 100+ (New All Time Record)

Day 26 105+

27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!

(Bergstrom) Sun Day 72 100+ (New All Time Record)

[Shoshana]

(Mabry) Mon Day 87 100+ (New All Time Record)

Day 26 105+

27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!

(Bergstrom) Mon Day 72 100+ (New All Time Record)

[Shoshana]

Lookin kinda dark out! Saw lots of lightning but no rain yesterday/last night but I put my new rain gauge out anyway...






(Mabry) Tues Day 88 100+ (New All Time Record)

Day 26 105+

27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!

(Bergstrom) Mon Day 72 100+

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I hope some of you are keeping a special journal of this drought. Pictures/bills/temps/newspaper clippings etc included so you can show your grandchildren what your generation went through.

[Shoshana]

Seriously - I cannot believe that 2 days in a row I've watched storm clouds go right around our house.

grumble. No rain.

[gboudx]

I hope some of you are keeping a special journal of this drought. Pictures/bills/temps/newspaper clippings etc included so you can show your grandchildren what your generation went through.

Our grandchildren will probably be able to upload that info straight to their brain wirelessly.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I hope some of you are keeping a special journal of this drought. Pictures/bills/temps/newspaper clippings etc included so you can show your grandchildren what your generation went through.

Our grandchildren will probably be able to upload that info straight to their brain wirelessly.

LOL how true but it won't be your story (plus real artifacts that one can touch are, at least to me, much more fascinating). Grandma and Grandpa took this pic/took the time to write their impressions in the journal/took the time to cut articles from their home town newspaper out and paste them in their book.

Their journal tells what they personally were focused on/worried about during trying times.

[Tireman4]

I hope some of you are keeping a special journal of this drought. Pictures/bills/temps/newspaper clippings etc included so you can show your grandchildren what your generation went through.

Our grandchildren will probably be able to upload that info straight to their brain wirelessly.

LOL how true but it won't be your story (plus real artifacts that one can touch are, at least to me, much more fascinating). Grandma and Grandpa took this pic/took the time to write their impressions in the journal/took the time to cut articles from their home town newspaper out and paste them in their book.

Their journal tells what they personally were focused on/worried about during trying times.

Or for historians that might be researching it...

[Shoshana]

(Mabry) Wed Day 89 100+ (New All Time Record)

Day 26 105+

27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!

(Bergstrom) Wed Day 73 100+ (New All Time Record)

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately the fire danger looks to return with a vengeance tomorrow (Friday) after frontal passage. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for winds 20-30 mph out of the north-northeast and very dry humidity.

I hope we can escape any additional calamity like we did the other day when we had our last frontal passage.

[Shoshana]

(Mabry) Thur Day 90 100+ (New All Time Record) New Daily High Record

Day 26 105+

27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!

(Bergstrom) Wed Day 73 100+ (New All Time Record) New Daily High Record

[somethingfunny]

US National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
Both DFW and Waco have hit 100 degrees today! Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across parts of north Texas, and the cold front will arrive in the next few hours. Quiet and pleasant weather is expected behind the front for the next 7 days.
1 · Like · · Share · 32 seconds ago



Day 71 for DFW and Day 90 for Waco.

[Ntxw]

I am hoping so bad for the scenario euro has about a week out. We need a pacific TC development early next week so that the predicted western trough can pull moisture due northeast into Texas. If only...



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