Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[InfernoFlameCat]

10 is allright, referring to your post on the GEFS model, but not reminiscent of a large outbreak. Hit me up when you see a large area of 30+SPC then I will get excited!

[Iceresistance]

10 is allright, referring to your post on the GEFS model, but not reminiscent of a large outbreak. Hit me up when you see a large area of 30+SPC then I will get excited!

I'm not sure that is possible for a large area of 30+ SCP!

But a SCP of a 10 looks very potent!

[InfernoFlameCat]

Supercell composite probability of 10 is decent but I think you mixed up STP and SCP. correct me If I am wrong.

[Iceresistance]

Supercell composite probability of 10 is decent but I think you mixed up STP and SCP. correct me If I am wrong.

I'm was on the GEFS SCP encembles, it's impossible to see the STP there on COD Meteorology . . .

Here is the MAX SCP on the 6z GEFS, it's up to a 26 . . .

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS

Mean SCP (Up to 11 in SW-Central Oklahoma)


Max SCP (Highest is 22 along I-35 from Guthrie to Norman)

[Iceresistance]

Even the models know how to create Supercell shapes in the strangest ways!

[InfernoFlameCat]

See we are close to an area of 30+ SCP. Wow though you are near the bullseye.

[Iceresistance]

See we are close to an area of 30+ SCP. Wow though you are near the bullseye.

Central Oklahoma is almost always the target for something like this . . .

[ElectricStorm]

See we are close to an area of 30+ SCP. Wow though you are near the bullseye.

Central Oklahoma is almost always the target for something like this . . .

Yep. And then us over here get the leftovers lol. Most of the time anyway, there are always a few exceptions. But I'm moving to Norman in a few months so I'll be in the thick of it

[Iceresistance]

See we are close to an area of 30+ SCP. Wow though you are near the bullseye.

Central Oklahoma is almost always the target for something like this . . .

Yep. And then us over here get the leftovers lol. Most of the time anyway, there are always a few exceptions. But I'm moving to Norman in a few months so I'll be in the thick of it

Well, I'm planning to move to Norman in a couple of years!

[Iceresistance]

2 inch hail has been reported in Kansas & Nebraska . . .

. . . In a area where that was supposed to be NO severe weather . . .

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Mean SCP

Max at +78 hours is a SCP of a 10 near Enid


Max at +78 hours is a SCP of a 8 from Tulsa to Shawnee & ending at Lawton

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Max SCP

Max SCP at +78 hours is 23 near Enid & Medford


Max SCP at +84 hours is 34 NNE of Oklahoma City . . .

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS has most of Saturday's storms staying in KS for now but of course that could change.

Also I'm just going to consider the rest of that run pure entertainment for now

And now apparently there's a random marginal risk just to my west

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS has most of Saturday's storms staying in KS for now but of course that could change.

Also I'm just going to consider the rest of that run pure entertainment for now

And now apparently there's a random marginal risk just to my west

Yes, those storms are producing severe wind & Hail, they produced 2 inch hail & landspout tornadoes in Kansas & Nebraska . . .

[ElectricStorm]

0z continues the trend of keeping all the action in KS for Saturday, so it wouldn't surprise me if they confine the slight risk to just KS on the Day 3 outlook. I will say though, the models have struggled overall lately on predicting whether or not the cap breaks. Even for Monday's event, some of those models didn't have storms firing in TX until right before the actual event.

[Iceresistance]

It's only in Southern Kansas & Far Northern Oklahoma right now . . .


HATCHED area especially near Topeka, KS . . .


Even though that Oklahoma & parts of Texas is under a Marginal risk, this is what the SPC mentioned . . .

Models suggest that the steepening lapse rates and low-level
moisture return will support the development of at least moderately
large CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, with highest values
focused along and east of a developing dryline across the Texas Big
Country and western Oklahoma into a developing warm frontal zone
across central Kansas. Although the details of the potential
convective evolution remain unclear, the dryline, the warm frontal
zone, and the cold front developing in the wake of the emerging
cyclone may all become the focus for strong to severe storm
development late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, in the
presence of strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear. Highest
probabilities seem likely to become focused near the warm
front/dryline intersection, eastward along or just south of the warm
front, where supercells may initiate, before convection possibly
grows upscale into an organizing cluster. Based on trends in model
output, particularly concerning potential destabilization, it is
possible that marginal and slight risk categories might need to be
bumped up a category in later outlooks for this period.

[Iceresistance]

All of the soundings in Oklahoma by the NAM & GFS models are showing the reason why there may not be any storms,

The STPC (Significant Tornado Parameter Composite) is too low on all soundings despite a very favorable environment for Supercells . . .

[Iceresistance]

6z GEFS Mean SCP (Highest Mean is a SCP of a 10 near Enid)


6z GEFS Max SCP (Highest was a SCP of a 23 near Enid)

[InfernoFlameCat]

May tenth is looking more favorable for a larger outbreak in the dixie alley. Depends on how the trough sets up though. If it is strong enough, we could have a massive discrete cell outbreak in the warm sector.