#1204 Postby Tireman4 » Mon May 22, 2017 9:18 am
Meanwhile, down south...
000
FXUS64 KHGX 221153
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
653 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/
Forecast remains pretty much on track and made just minor tweaks
to the ongoing package.
An MCV has developed with the large cluster of precip west of
Matagorda Bay. This should continue trekking mostly eastward
today. Surface boundary situated just offshore focused some 5"+
totals overnight. The hope was it would stay there but has since
edged closer to the coast and into the Galveston Bay area.
Convergent zone appears to be setting up from roughly Liberty to
Matagorda Bay. Inflow has really ramped up offshore with sustained
25-30 knot llvl SE winds perpendicular to this zone. Hopefully
the MCV takes a more ese track in the coming hours and pulls this
boundary back offshore. But there`s considerable uncertainty and
with resident 2-2.3" PW`s, felt is was best to issue a short fused
Flash Flood Watch and re-evaluate trends in the coming hours.
Those details are in that product that`s already been sent.
Bulk of precip should be headed off to the east later in the
afternoon and early evening. With the exception of offshore
areas, most of the region should see a break in the action
tonight. Rain and isolated storm chances return Tue aftn and evng
as a cold front makes its way into the region. The remainder of
the work week should be dry in the wake of the front. Pleasant
temps on Wed will gradually modify back into the 70s/90s Thursday
and into the weekend as onshore winds resume. Next shot of rain
looks to be late Sunday or early next week with the approach of
another weak front. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Strong and gusty onshore winds will prevail today into this evening
as low-level jet develops over SE TX. Scattered showers and thunder-
storms are possible thru Tues night as a series of upper level dist-
urbances move in from the west and interacts with left-over surface
boundaries lingering over the region. Models remain on track with a
cold front moving into the coastal waters Tues...with the stronger/
deeper northerly flow not making it into the Gulf until Tues night/
Weds morning. Caution flags may be needed during this time. Onshore
winds are set to return to the area by Weds night and then strength-
ening the rest of the week. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
A very active weather pattern over SE TX this morning that is like-
ly to continue through this afternoon. Current thinking is that the
surface boundary will be lingering mainly south of I-10 through the
rest of the day, acting as a focus for the stronger storms. Will be
keeping with mostly MVFR CIGS and the mention of TSRAs for most TAF
sites south of IAH. For the sites north, going more with VCTS/VCSHs
today. Did hit these northern TAFS a bit harder with patchy fog/low
CIGS tonight/early Tues morning. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 65 80 57 81 / 60 20 50 40 0
Houston (IAH) 77 67 82 60 83 / 90 30 40 40 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 73 82 66 81 / 90 50 30 40 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...
Galveston...Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...
Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
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Kind of snuck up on me but hey, we need the rain so hopefully it happens.
