Texas Fall-2015

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

In Richardson, I have 3.33" since yesterday, 1.07" since midnight, and another small batch of moderate rain blowing over now.

[dhweather]

In Heath:

July 1 - October 20: 1.59"

The last 10 hours: 4.17"

Good to see liquid water again from the skies

It is! The good news is the soil absorbed most of this rainfall. The bad news is the soil is now saturated and we are just getting started with this event.

[gboudx]

Bad time for the DFW NWS radar to go down.

[dhweather]

Bad time for the DFW NWS radar to go down.

It just came back online, but yes, very bad time to go down

[CaptinCrunch]

I've already received over 3" at the house and that was before the last round that came through about an hour ago. Lawn has done a good job of soaking in the rain and I have yet to have standing water in the low areas of the yard. But I'm sure that will change by this evening and tomorrow.

[weatherdude1108]

Last check at the house, we had 0.37 in the gauge. This is since yesterday with intermittent passing light showers. I'm certain it will change in the next 24-48 hours.

[gboudx]

Bad time for the DFW NWS radar to go down.

It just came back online, but yes, very bad time to go down

Good to see it back online. I hope your rain gauge auto-dumps. I need to get a "real" rain gauge instead of using one of those plastic things from Lowe's. I have a weather station but it doesn't have a gauge. It's actually a pretty crappy weather station that I need to replace. Hmm, what to ask for Christmas? A good weather station, or a good GPS watch for running?

[dhweather]

http://wx5fwd.org/NWSUpdate

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Friday, 23 October 2015 09:52 CDT

Hello,

Round two is upon most of us, and there are several more rounds expected. We are currently predicting widespread areas of an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall for much of the area, with a few spots going as high as 12 inches.

BOTTOM LINE:

Everyone in north and central Texas should be finalizing preparations for heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding, today through Saturday night / early Sunday morning. Transportation officials should be prepared for the possibility of slow traffic due to heavy rain, especially in traditional low lying areas, as well as construction zones. Outdoor events through Saturday will likely be affected with periods of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, including frequent lightning strikes. Public safety officials and school officials should review existing plans for outdoor events and be ready to put those plans in place when necessary.

AREAS /TIMING:

While all areas in north and central Texas will be affected by rain and localized heavy rain, the area will generally begin in the northwest and move southeast each day. See the attached graphic for a better explanation of the area.

Showers and thunderstorms have become more widespread across the now, and will continue through Saturday night. A cold front is expected to arrive into the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, before clearing the area during the day Sunday. As this occurs, better rain chances will shift across southeast parts of North Texas Saturday night into Sunday morning, before ending from northwest to southeast late this weekend.

IMPACTS:

Flash Flooding will be the primary threat, although a few severe thunderstorms are possible, with hail around the size of quarters, and a few wind gusts to 60 mph. Any area which flooded easily in May (not including lake runoff) may experience additional flash flooding this time around. This event is not like our May: this one is slow moving, but will be out of the area by the end of the weekend.

Main impacts are expected to be in the smaller tributaries to the main rivers. Flash Flooding on small streams and urban areas (especially low lying and construction zones) remains high.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

Confidence is HIGH regarding widespread rainfall, though it will occur in more than one round versus being one rainfall event. Confidence on the EXACT location axis of the heavier rains, though the entire area needs to remain alert. Likewise, our confidence in total amounts is still low to moderate, though we DO believe we some locations in our area will see AT LEAST 8-12 inches over the period.

USEFUL WEBSITES:

[gboudx]

I don't see where this update from jeff has been posted yet:

Excessive rainfall increasingly likely over SE TX this weekend

Coastal flooding likely on Sunday

Coastal storm formation likely Sunday as remains of incredibly powerful hurricane Patricia move across SE TX.

Discussion:
If things were not already bad enough…the development of Patricia overnight into a record breaking strong hurricane will result in changes to the forecast with increased impacts to SE TX. Radar is already active this morning as deep tropical moisture has surged into SE TX. A band of thunderstorms…some producing heavy rainfall…extend from near Victoria to Huntsville. Storm totals have already averaged 2.0 inches over Colorado County this morning with rapidly increasing totals over Austin and Grimes Counties. Most of this activity should remain west of I-45 today closest to the favorable low level inflow off the Gulf.

A cold front has also moved into TX and is slowly progressing southward over N TX…showers and thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall are also training WSW to ENE along this boundary. This boundary will move southward into SE TX on Saturday and then slow or even stall across the region on Sunday.

Saturday:
Frontal boundary will creep into the region with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of this feature as Gulf moisture inflow is maintained and massive surge of mid and high level moisture from Patricia begins to arrive. Would also expect some PVA or disturbances (spokes of energy) to eject NE out of the mid to upper level circulation of the decaying hurricane and this could enhance rainfall on Saturday.

Saturday night:
High level energy of Patricia will arrive into S TX and then into the coastal bend area by Sunday morning. This will combine with a developing surface low over S TX and help to deepen or intensify the feature as it moves NE up the TX coast. Expect widespread heavy to excessive rainfall to develop with numerous banding features and training episodes. Moisture levels peak at near record levels for this time of year and the combined lift of the frontal slope and developing surface low will squeeze all that moisture out over the area.

Sunday:
Coastal storm tracks slowly across the NW Gulf water/or just inland with widespread impacts. Expect widespread heavy to excessive rainfall to continue with numerous banding features and periods of training. Will cover winds and tides below.

Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall maximums have shifted southeast from central TX toward the upper TX coast/SE TX since yesterday in good agreement with track of Patricia remains and coastal low.

Widespread amounts: 4-7 inches
Isolated amounts: 10-12 inches

Flooding is becoming a very real concern with the forecasted rainfall amounts even with the dry grounds in place. High rainfall rates as already observed this morning will lead to rapid run-off into area creeks and bayous. Flash Flood Watches will be required late today.

Tides:
ET surge model showing more and more storm surge Saturday night/Sunday morning and this falls with a double peak high tide on Saturday night. Storm surge values now up to 2.0 ft or slightly more at Galveston due to strong onshore winds on the east side of the developing coastal low. Total water level rise of 4.5-5.0 ft expected and this could go a little higher. Saturday evening high tide looks the highest of just under 5.0 ft. For reference these values will be about 1.5-2.0 ft higher than what has been happening the last few days.

Critical flood thresholds along the Gulf beaches and inland bays range from 4.0-5.0ft and it looks like we are going to meet those values. Expect coastal flooding Saturday night into Sunday morning on Bolivar and the west end of Galveston Island, Surfside, portions of Kemah, Seabrook, Clear Lake, Nassau Bay, and Shoreacres.

Seas will build 8-14 feet Saturday night into Sunday and with the high tides much of this wave energy will be delivered into the upper parts of the beach areas and dune lines leading to coastal erosion and overwash.

Residents in low lying coastal areas should be fully aware of the potential for coastal flooding and take the need actions today to prepare for overwash and inundated roadways.

A coastal flood warning may be required on Saturday.

[1900hurricane]

WPC going with a high risk of flash flooding.

[gto67]

We have had 2.9 inches of rain this morning in Weimar. Getting my rain gear ready for the F1 for tomorrow and Sunday.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

In Richardson, I'm now at 2.66" for the day and 4.95" since yesterday.

[davidiowx]

SE Texas is next

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/6hrqpfall.html

[Ntxw]

Very intense rain is crossing the metroplex, heed those flash flood warnings

[CaptinCrunch]

***WARNING***


The current Cell moving through the DFW area is packing 60+ mph winds and heavy rain in excess of 1 to 2 inches an hour.

[gboudx]

***WARNING***


The current Cell moving through the DFW area is packing 60+ mph winds and heavy rain in excess of 1 to 2 inches an hour.

Looks like it's going to combine with the storms moving up from the south, somewhere over Dallas county.

[CaptinCrunch]

***WARNING***


The current Cell moving through the DFW area is packing 60+ mph winds and heavy rain in excess of 1 to 2 inches an hour.

Looks like it's going to combine with the storms moving up from the south, somewhere over Dallas county.

This was more like a spring time storm than late Fall. Lots of tree limbs down and many power outages...

[bullockrobinson]

Is it still looking like the Austin-area will get some of the heavier stuff?

[dhweather]

12Z GFS - wet wet wet

[ROCK]

That's incredible amount of rain right there. Jeff looks to be right