Texas Summer 2022

[Iceresistance]

The desert Southwest is about to get a very nasty heatwave that will have temperatures soaring into the 110s, I personally hope that this is not the preview of what’s coming towards Texas later this summer.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1533846022434312198?cxt=HHwWjMC-tZW1qMkqAAAA

So depressing. And it's probably going to get a lot worse before it gets any better unfortunately.

It is depressing, but something else caught my attention. 4 of the years listed on that chart featured a hurricane striking the Texas coast: 1909, 1961, 1971, and 2008. Also, 1954 featured storms striking close to Texas.

Edit: 1971 did not feature a hurricane strike, but Fern was very close to hurricane status at landfall.

[Ntxw]

The desert Southwest is about to get a very nasty heatwave that will have temperatures soaring into the 110s, I personally hope that this is not the preview of what’s coming towards Texas later this summer.

It is the same heat dome. 110F in Del Rio today and lots of 100-110 west of I-35 underneath what was not a heat dome. The origins will begin over far west Texas and NM, generate heat over the southwest low to mid 590s dm. Ensembles suggest it will anchor over the southern plains and balloon near the solstice and be a true summer heatwave.

As hot as the next 7 days are, the following week will likely be even hotter. Looking for any kind of relief long term, it's got to come from the tropics.

[Cpv17]

Well I mean we’re in a La Niña, what do you expect? The only help we could really get is from the tropics and even then it could pull of a Don and go poof.

[weatherdude1108]

Well I mean we’re in a La Niña, what do you expect? The only help we could really get is from the tropics and even then it could pull of a Don and go poof.

Oh man, what a sad nightmare Don was.

[bubba hotep]

[captainbarbossa19]

Well I mean we’re in a La Niña, what do you expect? The only help we could really get is from the tropics and even then it could pull of a Don and go poof.

Oh man, what a sad nightmare Don was.

On the flip side, looking at those numbers from San Antonio, you could have 1909 Galveston, Carla, or Ike hit you.

[lukem]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022060712/gfs_mslp_uv850_scus_63.png

It’s been there for three runs now. Had it landing close to Brownsville on the earlier runs.

[Ntxw]

If you follow Larry Cosgrove (used to be Houston focused) he is on the 1980 and 2011 train. While I don't agree it's currently that extreme, a top 5 summer is definitely possible. For some already there trajectory.

[Cpv17]

If you follow Larry Cosgrove (used to be Houston focused) he is on the 1980 and 2011 train. While I don't agree it's currently that extreme, a top 5 summer is definitely possible. For some already there trajectory.

I’m not so sure about all that. I feel like we’ll see a tropical system at some point. It’s supposed to be a hyperactive or borderline hyperactive season. Also, every drought ends in a flood.

[Ntxw]

If you follow Larry Cosgrove (used to be Houston focused) he is on the 1980 and 2011 train. While I don't agree it's currently that extreme, a top 5 summer is definitely possible. For some already there trajectory.

I’m not so sure about all that. I feel like we’ll see a tropical system at some point. It’s supposed to be a hyperactive or borderline hyperactive season. Also, every drought ends in a flood.

A tropical system could negate the rainfall deficits, however they are also a mechanism of heat transport. So in the grand scheme it doesn't really prevent a hot summer, that pattern is basically already in place with top 5 cool/cold Pac NW/inversely warm/hot South Central.

Here are some hot years at 500mb. Features are relatively similar.



And this is the big 3 with 1980, 1998, and 2011. Persistent lower heights over the PAC NW is not pretty here.



30 days departures.

[captainbarbossa19]

If you follow Larry Cosgrove (used to be Houston focused) he is on the 1980 and 2011 train. While I don't agree it's currently that extreme, a top 5 summer is definitely possible. For some already there trajectory.

It is not that extreme and I think many people love for everything to be that way. Everything has to be an extreme and the truth is that extremes do not occur often and that's why they are called that. 1980 and 2011 are not likely to occur every 10 years. It does not mean it will not happen. It just is not likely.

[Ntxw]

If you follow Larry Cosgrove (used to be Houston focused) he is on the 1980 and 2011 train. While I don't agree it's currently that extreme, a top 5 summer is definitely possible. For some already there trajectory.

It is not that extreme and I think many people love for everything to be that way. Everything has to be an extreme and the truth is that extremes do not occur often and that's why they are called that. 1980 and 2011 are not likely to occur every 10 years. It does not mean it will not happen. It just is not likely.

Agreed, if by July we we've racked up a bunch of 100s and few 90s then we can talk about extreme. Lets see what the next few weeks provide, that's the thing. I know I'm a broken record both hoping for a better pattern that hasn't truly materialize this Spring and for pointing out heat but it's reality. Trust me I would love nothing more than a cold summer, if anything was hoping that VEI 6 Hunga Tonga eruption would disrupt, but nothing yet so far. Lately I feel like I've been channeling heat miser in his absence against my will!

[captainbarbossa19]

If you follow Larry Cosgrove (used to be Houston focused) he is on the 1980 and 2011 train. While I don't agree it's currently that extreme, a top 5 summer is definitely possible. For some already there trajectory.

It is not that extreme and I think many people love for everything to be that way. Everything has to be an extreme and the truth is that extremes do not occur often and that's why they are called that. 1980 and 2011 are not likely to occur every 10 years. It does not mean it will not happen. It just is not likely.

Agreed, if by July we we've racked up a bunch of 100s and few 90s then we can talk about extreme. Lets see what the next few weeks provide, that's the thing. I know I'm a broken record both hoping for a better pattern that hasn't truly materialize this Spring and for pointing out heat but it's reality. Trust me I would love nothing more than a cold summer, if anything was hoping that VEI 6 Hunga Tonga eruption would disrupt, but nothing yet so far. Lately I feel like I've been channeling heat miser in his absence against my will!

Only time will tell what happens this year. Unlike 2011 though, I think we will have a higher risk of a landfalling hurricane. The overall pattern appears to be more supportive.

[weatherdude1108]

Well I mean we’re in a La Niña, what do you expect? The only help we could really get is from the tropics and even then it could pull of a Don and go poof.

Oh man, what a sad nightmare Don was.

On the flip side, looking at those numbers from San Antonio, you could have 1909 Galveston, Carla, or Ike hit you.

Yeah, in a perfect world, we'd have a depression or weak storm move inland at a slower speed to soak the soils.

[bubba hotep]

Hi-res guidance indicating that tonight's MCS might be able to dip down into North Texas. Go Storms!

[Brent]

I feel for y'all down there.. were still getting nightly storms here and don't need more rain (although the humidity is awful) but there's talk of finally getting really hot next week and I'm not remotely excited and all I can say is it September yet

[Iceresistance]

I'm under a slight risk of flooding and severe storms for today.

Came home to 1.25 inches of rain

[Texoz]

If you follow Larry Cosgrove (used to be Houston focused) he is on the 1980 and 2011 train. While I don't agree it's currently that extreme, a top 5 summer is definitely possible. For some already there trajectory.

Hmm, 1980. I was still in high school and recall getting all excited in a nerdy way because of Hurricane Allen heading to Texas. That 1980 heat wave and drought sucked it dry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen

[Ntxw]

Euro and GFS cranking up the heat this weekend. 105+ is record territory for mid June.

A lot of the June records are held by 1911 and 1980 for DFW.