Texas Fall 2019

[Brent]

GFS showing some "hope"... beyond 300 hours not much rain though

fyi soon beyond 300 hours will be October...

[somethingfunny]

It's not just that the "storms" in itself is the causation/effect of hot and dry (for Texas) but the broader wave pattern as well as bigger forces at play.

When the Atlantic heats up in late summer/early Fall it is usually because of increase favor-ability for the Atlantic Ocean. This favor-ability is tied to atmospheric oscillations and ridge-trough configurations that are associated with La Nina or La Nina like tropical forcing. And we all know what a true Nina can do for droughts.

On the other hand some of the wettest Falls like 2009, 2015, 2018 are associated with big EPAC seasons, or El Nino like wave patterns.

All of this is just a result of where the background tropical upward forcing is. In late summer and early Fall the wavelengths are not yet short so when tropical forcing slows down in any one region, you can get prolonged dry periods and vice versa. So the Tropical systems are a symptom of an overall more broad, stuck, pattern.

Now when talking about decadal or multi-year wet/dry Texas patterns the PDO in the Pacific has a much larger role. The -PDO from about 2005-2013 yielded one of the driest periods in Texas history. Immediately those fortunes flipped from 2014-2018 with the PDO reversal with the massive El Nino.

To expand on this a bit, the correlation is not perfect...

2004 was a wet summer in NTX, but also a busy hurricane season (although the season was DEAD until the start of August)

2007 another wet summer and an above-average season with two Cat5s.

2018 was wet but featured Florence and Michael to our east.

2017 was wet before (and during) Harvey but dry after.

I do think we've seen lots of evidence that Atlantic hurricanes recurving tend to amplify the East Coast trough (or be symptoms of amplification) which gives us a stronger Central US ridge. We see it all the time after an East Coast or Eastern GOM storm. Sometimes before them if the storm is recurving with an already static pattern... definitely afterward

With 2007's wet summer we had two very strong low-latitude hurricanes that didn't recurve, and Erin and Humberto striking Texas thanks to our persistent trough over the Central US, but over by the East Coast it was abnormally quiet.

[Ntxw]

It's not just that the "storms" in itself is the causation/effect of hot and dry (for Texas) but the broader wave pattern as well as bigger forces at play.

When the Atlantic heats up in late summer/early Fall it is usually because of increase favor-ability for the Atlantic Ocean. This favor-ability is tied to atmospheric oscillations and ridge-trough configurations that are associated with La Nina or La Nina like tropical forcing. And we all know what a true Nina can do for droughts.

On the other hand some of the wettest Falls like 2009, 2015, 2018 are associated with big EPAC seasons, or El Nino like wave patterns.

All of this is just a result of where the background tropical upward forcing is. In late summer and early Fall the wavelengths are not yet short so when tropical forcing slows down in any one region, you can get prolonged dry periods and vice versa. So the Tropical systems are a symptom of an overall more broad, stuck, pattern.

Now when talking about decadal or multi-year wet/dry Texas patterns the PDO in the Pacific has a much larger role. The -PDO from about 2005-2013 yielded one of the driest periods in Texas history. Immediately those fortunes flipped from 2014-2018 with the PDO reversal with the massive El Nino.

To expand on this a bit, the correlation is not perfect...

2004 was a wet summer in NTX, but also a busy hurricane season (although the season was DEAD until the start of August)

2007 another wet summer and an above-average season with two Cat5s.

2018 was wet but featured Florence and Michael to our east.

2017 was wet before (and during) Harvey but dry after.

I do think we've seen lots of evidence that Atlantic hurricanes recurving tend to amplify the East Coast trough (or be symptoms of amplification) which gives us a stronger Central US ridge. We see it all the time after an East Coast or Eastern GOM storm. Sometimes before them if the storm is recurving with an already static pattern... definitely afterward

With 2007's wet summer we had two very strong low-latitude hurricanes that didn't recurve, and Erin and Humberto striking Texas thanks to our persistent trough over the Central US, but over by the East Coast it was abnormally quiet.

To note though about 2004 and 2007 there is a caveat. 2004 was a September heavy month in terms of Hurricanes where the bulk of it happened in a short span. DFW barely got 1" of rain during that flurry of activity despite wet prior and after. With 2007 where the two Cat 5s were in August and litte activity before and after. Aug 2007 featured 0.35" of rain.

[rwfromkansas]

What’s the PDO look like for fall/winter at this point, or is that iffy?

[Ntxw]

What’s the PDO look like for fall/winter at this point, or is that iffy?

The Pacific remains in + territory for the most part and will remain. When it rains again, it will rain a lot. The dryness is short term related but annual and multi-year soils are doing well still.

[SoupBone]

So what's keeping Texas protected from 95L? Mr. Death R. Idge?

[weatherdude1108]

Raining heavily at the office right now! Quite the spectacle around here.lol Hoping my house gets something.

[weatherdude1108]

Steam bath outside. Steam literally rose from the asphalt after lunch when we got a lull. Atmosphere rejuiced, development going on, just in time for rush hour.

[Brent]

This wet flip needs to hurry up

End of the Fort Worth AFD

DFW Airport has yet
to see a drop of rain this month; 2019 may join 2000 and 2017 as
one of the only years to have no measurable September rainfall
through the autumnal equinox.

[BrokenGlass]

Hope to our south? Radar shows this activity building northward.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[South Texas Storms]

My parent's house finally won the rain lottery today in northwest SA! They haven't had much rain in months, but just today received almost 2 inches! Hopefully this is a sign that a wetter pattern will be returning to Texas soon.

[Cpv17]

My parent's house finally won the rain lottery today in northwest SA! They haven't had much rain in months, but just today received almost 2 inches! Hopefully this is a sign that a wetter pattern will be returning to Texas soon.

The GFS and Euro still look blah for rain.

[South Texas Storms]

My parent's house finally won the rain lottery today in northwest SA! They haven't had much rain in months, but just today received almost 2 inches! Hopefully this is a sign that a wetter pattern will be returning to Texas soon.

The GFS and Euro still look blah for rain.

Looks like our first cold front could arrive in about 10 days based on the latest Canadian, Euro, and GFS. This could bring us some decent rain chances, as long as there isn't a TC to our east...

[JDawg512]

2nd day in a row that it rained at the Rain Cave. Recieved more rain in a 48 hour period than July and August combined.

[Cpv17]

2nd day in a row that it rained at the Rain Cave. Recieved more rain in a 48 hour period than July and August combined.

That happened to me yesterday in 15 minutes lol

[Haris]

This time y'all won except me. Not a freaking drop. Was 100 again today. sigh... we need a widespread event. I havent seen a storm since July 8th.

[weatherdude1108]

This time y'all won except me. Not a freaking drop. Was 100 again today. sigh... we need a widespread event. I havent seen a storm since July 8th.

Sucks. I got less than yesterday. Less than 0.10" . Work got about 0.5". Guess we wait until next week. Ugh!

[Brent]

The Euro finally has a trough at the end of next week at least but the Atlantic to our east is very busy too

[Ntxw]

The Euro finally has a trough at the end of next week at least but the Atlantic to our east is very busy too

Climo will win eventually

[SoupBone]

The Euro finally has a trough at the end of next week at least but the Atlantic to our east is very busy too

When the troughs arrive, Texas says "kitchen's closed" to tropical systems. Wishful thinking at least, but I do think are chances become greatly reduced as we start seeing these troughs and fronts swing down. Bring on the cool, I want to ride my bike and not sweat buckets!