Texas Summer-2015

[Ntxw]

Yea there doesn't seem to be anything significant in the mid range models either. I wasn't expecting much rain this month but was hoping of getting around average. If there's nothing showing up in the extended models by the 15th then it's gonna suck!

I know it's tough. Worst time of the year IMO . July and August is a cold mongerer's equivalent to wxman57 in January and February and as a weather nut very little tends to happen in these months. Fall can't come soon enough.

[gboudx]

57 has been fairly absent from this thread. He must be busy with the overly active Atlantic tropical season.

[weatherdude1108]

57 has been fairly absent from this thread. He must be busy with the overly active Atlantic tropical season.

I was wondering where he is(?). He seems to show himself mostly during the Winter months. He's likely out biking in the delightfully crisp 90-degree sunshine.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of tropical season, if you are a fan of tracking large, strong hurricanes follow invest 98E on the southern coast of Mexico. This one is going to be another EPAC monster though likely to continue west. It will be very pictureseque as the Euro/GFS has been quite consistent.

Hawaii is also being dotted with activity all around them, not something they are too accustomed to.

[Brent]

57 has been fairly absent from this thread. He must be busy with the overly active Atlantic tropical season.

[weatherdude1108]

Thank goodness for that extra soil moisture!!

One of the local weather guys on the news the other day said that if we didn't get all those rains in May and June, instead of the low 90s we have been seeing, we would be seeing 101-102 degrees.

Most of the Sun's energy directed into evaporation of the the moist soil, reducing direct heating of the air. Whereas Sun's output on already baked soils goes directly to heating the air (i.e., 2011 extreme example), causing misery for everyone, except wxman57.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 101946
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
BE INFLUENCED PREDOMINATELY BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST AND AMPLIFY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CENTERING
OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...BUT MAINTAINING A FIRM GRIP ON WX
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RIDGE DOES LOOK TO FLATTEN
SLIGHTLY MID WEEK...BUT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE DURING
THIS TIME. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BACK TO AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL SOIL AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL
ASSIST IN NOT ALLOWING HIGHS TO GET TOO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE WARM NEXT WEEK.

[gpsnowman]

I saw the first 100 degree number on the news this morning and sighed. Luckily I will be in central Mexico for two weeks starting the 16th. The weather is always rainy and cool down there this time of year. When I return it should be yucky and hot. But by then training camp will have started and football and autumn will be just around the corner. Sweet.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose mentioned the correlation to 1957 in today's blog.

It's interesting to note the weather pattern this spring and summer has so far closely followed the weather pattern observed here in 1957 when El Nino developed and the drought broke across Texas. That year, very heavy rains developed in the spring but conditions turned in July and August before the wet pattern returned in September and October. In Austin, only 0.55 inches of rain was recorded in July and only a trace of rain was observed in August. 6.43 inches occurred in September. There were 18 100-degree temperatures recorded July through August of that year. Summer 1957 appears to be a good guide as to the kind of general weather conditions our region can expect this summer and fall.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Brent]

Rick Mitchell on NBC 5 just teased 1957 in the weather preview

[TeamPlayersBlue]

1957 looks to be a good analog for the winter. Warm off California, warm pool in GOA and of course fairly strong El nino in the pacific. Another interesting thing to note is how dry conditions were around 1955, 2 yrs before '57 and how dry conditions have been in the last couple years.

Ive been on the NOAA site wearing myself out trying to figure things out a bit more but i like the analog. I couldnt get proper datasets for 1957 though. 500MB anomaly, precip anomaly, temp anomaly etc.

[Ntxw]

1957 looks to be a good analog for the winter. Warm off California, warm pool in GOA and of course fairly strong El nino in the pacific. Another interesting thing to note is how dry conditions were around 1955, 2 yrs before '57 and how dry conditions have been in the last couple years.

Ive been on the NOAA site wearing myself out trying to figure things out a bit more but i like the analog. I couldnt get proper datasets for 1957 though. 500MB anomaly, precip anomaly, temp anomaly etc.

MEI analogs (includes both ocean and atmosphere) list from Wolter Klaus signifies 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1986-1987, and 1997-1998 as better analogs in terms of Nino evolution. The big thing missing from 1957 is the big +PDO readings so the north Pacific was radically different as well as the AMO.

[Ntxw]

To add, again I want to caution model hugging, with the volatile Pacific tropical activity the skill scores for models have been not so good. The differences are drastic so be careful sticking too much to them.

Look at the 180 from the OP vs the ENS of the GFS one is warm central conus another is cool central conus. Both can't be right.

[JDawg512]

1957 looks to be a good analog for the winter. Warm off California, warm pool in GOA and of course fairly strong El nino in the pacific. Another interesting thing to note is how dry conditions were around 1955, 2 yrs before '57 and how dry conditions have been in the last couple years.

Ive been on the NOAA site wearing myself out trying to figure things out a bit more but i like the analog. I couldnt get proper datasets for 1957 though. 500MB anomaly, precip anomaly, temp anomaly etc.

MEI analogs (includes both ocean and atmosphere) list from Wolter Klaus signifies 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1986-1987, and 1997-1998 as better analogs in terms of Nino evolution. The big thing missing from 1957 is the big +PDO readings so the north Pacific was radically different as well as the AMO.

Speaking of the PDO, it will be interesting to see if it stays positive come next summer or if it reverts back to negative. Could this signify a long term +PDO shift? Too soon to say but I have fond memories of the 80s and 90s when the +PDO doninated.

[Portastorm]

1957 looks to be a good analog for the winter. Warm off California, warm pool in GOA and of course fairly strong El nino in the pacific. Another interesting thing to note is how dry conditions were around 1955, 2 yrs before '57 and how dry conditions have been in the last couple years.

Ive been on the NOAA site wearing myself out trying to figure things out a bit more but i like the analog. I couldnt get proper datasets for 1957 though. 500MB anomaly, precip anomaly, temp anomaly etc.

MEI analogs (includes both ocean and atmosphere) list from Wolter Klaus signifies 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1986-1987, and 1997-1998 as better analogs in terms of Nino evolution. The big thing missing from 1957 is the big +PDO readings so the north Pacific was radically different as well as the AMO.

We've all marveled the last two winters about the anomalous warmth of ocean temps in the NE Pacific. They appear right now to be even warmer than last year at this time. This is just extraordinary!

[weatherdude1108]

1957 looks to be a good analog for the winter. Warm off California, warm pool in GOA and of course fairly strong El nino in the pacific. Another interesting thing to note is how dry conditions were around 1955, 2 yrs before '57 and how dry conditions have been in the last couple years.

Ive been on the NOAA site wearing myself out trying to figure things out a bit more but i like the analog. I couldnt get proper datasets for 1957 though. 500MB anomaly, precip anomaly, temp anomaly etc.

MEI analogs (includes both ocean and atmosphere) list from Wolter Klaus signifies 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1986-1987, and 1997-1998 as better analogs in terms of Nino evolution. The big thing missing from 1957 is the big +PDO readings so the north Pacific was radically different as well as the AMO.

We've all marveled the last two winters about the anomalous warmth of ocean temps in the NE Pacific. They appear right now to be even warmer than last year at this time. This is just extraordinary!

Yeah. We may not have an accurate historical analog to go on. The phenomenal NE Pacific warmth may be a kind of uncharted territory for the current long-term forecasting models.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of PDO, June reading went up again to +1.54. We are amidst a very positive PDO signal the past year and a half.

[high_lander]

Speaking of PDO, June reading went up again to +1.54. We are amidst a very positive PDO signal the past year and a half.

For us weather n00bs, can you explain what that correlation means? How does that affect our local weather.

Having been born and raised in SoCal, weather is just warm or chilly. Since moving to NTX, I have become a lot more weather conscience.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of PDO, June reading went up again to +1.54. We are amidst a very positive PDO signal the past year and a half.

For us weather n00bs, can you explain what that correlation means? How does that affect our local weather.

Having been born and raised in SoCal, weather is just warm or chilly. Since moving to NTX, I have become a lot more weather conscience.

In the long terms, speaking in months and seasons, west coast ridge, central and eastern conus trough. +PDO = 1980s/1990s, -PDO 2000s.

[aggiecutter]

Speaking of PDO, June reading went up again to +1.54. We are amidst a very positive PDO signal the past year and a half.

For us weather n00bs, can you explain what that correlation means? How does that affect our local weather.

Having been born and raised in SoCal, weather is just warm or chilly. Since moving to NTX, I have become a lot more weather conscience.

It means no snow for SW Austin for the next 10 years.

[Brent]

100 or not... it's too freaking hot today.