Texas Fall-2015

[1900hurricane]

Folks, how many feel Patricia will beat Wilma's record pressure? She is still intensifying. I think Patricia has a shot.

Either way, it will be close for sure.

[SouthernMet]

Patricia is just incredible right now. Unbelievable.

[Ntxw]

SFMR 182kts (180 knots recon) confirmed by VDM. Not sure what the NHC will officially declare, but that is likely a world record wind speed for a tropical cyclone.

[northjaxpro]

The SFMR report of 182 kts supports an 180 kt tropical cyclone in my book. I hope the NHC declares that, but deep down in me I think that they will go 170 kt. They will probably be a bit conservative with this. we will see.

[Ntxw]

182kts supports an 180 kt tropical cyclone in my book. I hope the NHC declares that, but deep down in me I think that they will go 170 kt. They will probably be a bit conservative with this. we will see.

They probably will go conservative, it's hard to fathom such numbers in weather. 886mb though, second lowest reading in the WHEM behind Wilma's 882.

[Ntxw]

182kts supports an 180 kt tropical cyclone in my book. I hope the NHC declares that, but deep down in me I think that they will go 170 kt. They will probably be a bit conservative with this. we will see.

They probably will go conservative, it's hard to fathom such numbers in weather. 886mb though, second lowest reading in the WHEM behind Wilma's 882.

It looks like the NHC will accept that reading...wow probably the highest real reading we will ever see for a tropical cyclone

[northjaxpro]

NTXW, I am completely floored. Just absolutely incredible what we are witnessing tonight with Patricia. Just WOW!!! But, NHC did indeed confirm 180 Kt and I am happy they did not go conservative with this.

[Ntxw]

NTXW, I am completely floored. Just absolutely incredible what we are witnessing tonight with Patricia. Just WOW!!! But, NHC did indeed confirm 180 Kt and I am happy they did not go conservative with this.

Agreed and it's not like it was a single crazy reading. Each pass was wild all confirming.

Sorry guys for the off topic from the rains, just history in the making below us.

DFW up to this point has recorded 2.28 inches of rain

[TarrantWx]

DFW set a daily rainfall record for yesterday (Oct 22) at 2.58". The old record was 2.19" in 1908.

That brings the year to date total at DFW to 41.68" which is 23.63" greater than last year on this date (18.05"), and 12.12" above the normal for Oct 22 of 29.56". It's unreal how far above normal we are considering how dry we've been all summer. It's definitely been feast or famine.

[1900hurricane]

Starting to get inflow storms here in College Station. Thunder is rumbling.

[Texas Snowman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
441 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.....QUICK OVERVIEW...PRECIPITATION EVENT.....

FLASH FLOOD WATCH... NOW INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 7AM
SUNDAY.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS... WIDESPREAD TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA WITH HEAVIEST LIKELY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX.
HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. ON SATURDAY...HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS... ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED 8 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.

FLASH FLOODING THREAT... HIGH. WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MORE RAIN FALLS ON WET GROUNDS. URBAN AREAS WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AS RAINS CONTINUE.

RIVER FLOODING THREAT... MODERATE. RIVERS ARE NOW STARTING TO
RESPOND UPWARD WITH CONTINUED RAIN. SHOULD SEE MORE RUNOFF MAKING
IT INTO STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.....DISCUSSION.....

MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TO THE SOUTH...MAJOR HURRICANE
PATRICIA NOW HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 200 MPH AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL
LATER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO. A HURRICANE THIS STRONG
HAS A WELL DEFINED MATURE ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH EFFICIENTLY EVACUATES AIR OUT OF THE TOP OF THE
HURRICANE. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS CLOCKWISE
ROTATING BANDS WHICH ALREADY EXTENDS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME IMPORTANT LATER TONIGHT TO HELP ENHANCE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS.

THOUGHTS FOR TODAY...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SHOWED SIGNS
OF WEAKENING IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND THE WELL DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION IS NOW
RETREATING TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS IN THE METROPLEX HAVE NOW
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY NOT BE AS IMPORTANT IN
FOCUSING NEW CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
INSTEAD...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE
OF A 35KT LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING
NORTH-NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO
THE WEST OF THE METROPLEX IN AN AREA OF MODERATE WARM ADVECTION
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. ITS TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE TODAY...BUT MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
SHOULD SEE ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT
BE THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

BY TONIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO
WEST TEXAS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WILL
BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BUT THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL
HELP TO GREATLY INCREASE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD PROVIDE A
GOOD FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
LIKELY TAKE PLACE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO FORT WORTH TO BONHAM. THIS AREA COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY AND THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. THIS MEANS THAT WE SHOULD SEE A SOUTHWARD MOVING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

DUNN

[Texas Snowman]

530
FXUS64 KEWX 230934
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
434 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A RAPID INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL INTENSITIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
MODERATE THUS FAR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY 12Z WHEN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID PERIOD BEGINS.

THE INTENSIFICATION OF PATRICIA TO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE HAS RESULTED IN SOME MODEL SHIFTING OF THE
MORE INTENSE RAINFALL PERIODS AND HAS SLIGHTLY SHORTENED THE TIME
WINDOW OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS. THE NEW MODEL ASSESSMENTS FACTOR IN
A SLIGHTLY FASTER PATTERN OF THE MORE INFLUENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS HAS FURTHER NARROWED THE FOCUS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL
AND FLOOD RISK TO BE EAST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME TO PEARSALL LINE
WHERE 5 TO 10 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE COMMON. WITHIN THIS
AREA SOME ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 10-15 INCHES WILL BE
ADVERTISED. THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS...IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENTS IN PATRICIA...HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHEST STORM TOTAL
QPF AMOUNTS SOUTHWARD AS INCREASED CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED OVER
SOUTH TX TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEST OF THIS HIGHER THREAT
AREA...THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE DECREASED SOME...BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO REMOVE WESTERN COUNTIES FROM WATCH CONSIDERATION.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A WATCH OVER THESE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A
MENTION OF 1-3 INCHES AND ISOLATED 6 INCH AMOUNTS.

AS NOTED ABOVE...MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS HAVE CONVERGED TOWARD A
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT OF QPF INTO THE COASTAL PRAIRIES AND MORE
TOWARD AND SOUTH OF I-10...FAVORING THE BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
FROM EARLIER RUNS. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TRANSLATION OF THE
MID LEVEL TROPICAL CYCLONE TO NEAR THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...PARTS OF
CENTRAL TX ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRAINING
PATTERN IS STILL ANTICIPATED TODAY INTO TONIGHT FORMING FIRST
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.

A NEW THREAT ALSO NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS THE ADDED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THIS PERIOD IS
LIKELY TO BE MOST ENHANCED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY AND
GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN EAGLE PASS TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE
LINE...ENDING OVER EASTERN COUNTIES LATE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TRACKS GENERALLY TOWARD HOUSTON. THIS TIMING DEPENDS ON THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD END
SOMETIME IN THE EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHEST STORM TOTALS SHOULD BE FOUND...KEEPING
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WELL INTO THE NIGHT OVER AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. ONCE IT PASSES INTO EAST TX BY SUNDAY MORNING...
RAINFALL INTENSITIES SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL UNCERTAINTIES WILL BE BASED ON ANY DEVIATIONS OF THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THERE IS A CHANCE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED AN EXTENSION INTO DAYTIME SUNDAY OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES.


BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
TO THE EAST...BUT SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND PRECIP COULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. THE EXTRA BREEZY CONDITIONS ABOUT THE SURFACE
CYCLONE COULD ENHANCE THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH IN THE WAKE OF THE
BROADER UPPER TROUGH THAT LURED PATRICIA NORTHWARD...LEADING TO
FURTHER DRYING AND REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES. THE WAKE PATTERN IS
MAINLY ZONAL...AND MILD WEATHER IS DEPICTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
A WEAK FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS DEPICTED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

[Portastorm]

Per Patricia's overnight developments, I think our friends in southeast Texas could be in for a period of very stormy and ugly weather into Monday.

[Annie Oakley]

Thanks for posting that update discussion Texas Snowman. Interesting that more rain expected next weekend as well.

[Ntxw]

175knts (200mph sustained) 880mbar, Patricia became the most intense, highest winds, deepest pressure on our side of the globe overnight, she has no equal in the Atlantic or East Pacific

[iorange55]

That lightning and thunder was intense overnight. Hard to sleep for a few hours. It's now raining again. Pretty incredible 24 hours of weather around the world.

[weatherdude1108]

175knts (200mph sustained) 880mbar, Patricia became the most intense, highest winds, deepest pressure on our side of the globe overnight, she has no equal in the Atlantic or East Pacific

I know it is off topic a bit, but this hurricane will have an effect on Texas weather, so kind of on topic.
It is just beyond my comprehension how it exploded into a record hurricane in a matter of a few days!!
Thoughts and prayers to those down there. Is the landfall cone in a sparsely populated area for the most part (with the exception of resorts)? Hoping people are evacuating! The NHC had a good writeup this morning, which I am sure you saw already and someone probably posted.
The NHC also seemed bewildered and showed a lot of gratitude to the hurricane hunters for their data. I'm just glad the hunters made it out of there safely! Those hunter planes must be virtually indestructible! I'm still in disbelief.


HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
[b]However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days.[/b] Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0834.shtml?

[dhweather]

In Heath:

July 1 - October 20: 1.59"

The last 10 hours: 4.17"

[Ntxw]

In Heath:

July 1 - October 20: 1.59"

The last 10 hours: 4.17"

Good to see liquid water again from the skies

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So i just caught up with everything besides look at the models. Wow. went to softball last night and now things have certainly escalated. That extremely high amount of precip band is just to my west, sounds like Sunday to Monday will be very interesting.