Texas Fall-2015

[TheProfessor]

Usually those systems form right there and move out in the middle of the Pacific where they intensify anfd die. We are making history here!

By the next advisory it may be 150-155kts. That's over 170mph or equivalent to an EF4 tornado. Imagine for the folks on that coast if it made landfall as such. Hours of that not 2-3 minutes. If you haven't seen iCyclone's chase video of cat 3 Odile on Cabo last season, it's hard to fathom what a cat 5 would do.

Pure wind speed wise it is equivalent, but there's a major difference between 170 mph in a hurricane and 170 mph in a tornado, in a hurricane the wind direction changes on an average about a minute, for a tornado the wind changes direction per second, the extremely fast change in wind direction is how a tornado is able to do more damage at a lower wind speed.

[Ntxw]

Pure wind speed wise it is equivalent, but there's a major difference between 170 mph in a hurricane and 170 mph in a tornado, in a hurricane the wind direction changes on an average about a minute, for a tornado the wind changes direction per second, the extremely fast change in wind direction is how a tornado is able to do more damage at a lower wind speed.

Agreed, but duration counts for something too I'd imagine. The constant bombardment puts a lot of pressure on an object.

[Ntxw]

Anyone remember Wilma and the infamous advisory of pinhole eye that rocked the hurricane world? Well Patricia has a pinhole eye, I wouldn't doubt 180-200mph+ gusts in it.

[iorange55]

Getting some heavy rains here on the Hill. Looking forward to this exciting fall and winter!

[northjaxpro]

Anyone remember Wilma and the infamous advisory of pinhole eye that rocked the hurricane world? Well Patricia has a pinhole eye, I wouldn't doubt 180-200mph+ gusts in it.

No question about this Ntxw. Patricia reminds me of Wilma so much currently, with that classic pinhole eye. I can't wait to see what Recon finds later tonight. The data I am expecting to see is going to be mind numbing imo.

[Ntxw]

1.39" at the airport as of 9pm with more training coming from the SW. The area between the I-35 split seems to have been the hot spot the past few hours.

[Brent]

Really starting to come down on the NE side of the metro now... vivid lightning also. Lights flickered a couple times at work when it started.

[Rgv20]

NHC 10PM Discussion about Category 5 Patricia

Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming
warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90c
cloud tops in the eyewall. Subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en Route to check the
intensity of the Hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have
intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a
category 5 hurricane during that time. This is a remarkable feat,
with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite
era. The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing
southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday
afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall. The latest forecast is close to the
previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed.
After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high
terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre Mountains.

The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an
initial motion estimate of 330/9. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during
the next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level
high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then
forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The latest NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to
better reflect the latest consensus guidance.

Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA weather prediction center.

Key messages:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
Hurricane Warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the Hurricane Warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect
the warning area overnight or early Friday.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, michoacan and Guerrero beginning
late tonight and continuing into Saturday.

Forecast positions and Max winds

Init 23/0300z 16.2n 105.1w 140 kt 160 mph
12h 23/1200z 17.4n 105.7w 145 kt 165 mph
24h 24/0000z 19.7n 105.3w 125 kt 145 mph...on the coast
36h 24/1200z 22.5n 103.5w 50 kt 60 mph...inland
48h 25/0000z...dissipated

$$
forecaster Blake

[Ntxw]

Recon is going into her shortly at peak. We may find one of, if not the most intense system ever in the western hemisphere. Even Wilma did not produce such dramatic ADT values.

[weatherdude1108]

This is a remarkable feat,
with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite
era.

Frightening stuff!

[Ptarmigan]

Usually those systems form right there and move out in the middle of the Pacific where they intensify anfd die. We are making history here!

By the next advisory it may be 150-155kts. That's over 170mph or equivalent to an EF4 tornado. Imagine for the folks on that coast if it made landfall as such. Hours of that not 2-3 minutes. If you haven't seen iCyclone's chase video of cat 3 Odile on Cabo last season, it's hard to fathom what a cat 5 would do.

Pure wind speed wise it is equivalent, but there's a major difference between 170 mph in a hurricane and 170 mph in a tornado, in a hurricane the wind direction changes on an average about a minute, for a tornado the wind changes direction per second, the extremely fast change in wind direction is how a tornado is able to do more damage at a lower wind speed.

It is the gusts in a hurricane that does a lot of damage.

[Ntxw]

It is the gusts in a hurricane that does a lot of damage.

If recon finds 170knots (very rare) that's 195mph sustained. Gusts would be outrageous 200mph+

[Ntxw]

Back to rain. A lot more building to the SW of the metroplex. Many areas have picked up between 1-3". SPC meso analysis shows that the rain line has basically come to a standstill.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I am at 2.07 so far here, wth more thunder rolling in from the south.

[Brent]

GFS through when Patricia exits, Sunday looks wet and even part of Monday.

[Ntxw]

3-4 inches of rain showing up SW in somervell county and is streaming NE into Johnson county. Heavy rain and thunder currently by the airport.

[TarrantWx]

Looks like a training band is setting up focusing right on the mid cities

[Brent]

Patricia 891 mb. Holy balls.

[Ntxw]

Patricia 891 mb. Holy balls.

She is still intensifying. Holy moly guacamole. Who would've guessed our rain event would be tied to a sub 900mbar hurricane...

[northjaxpro]

Folks, how many feel Patricia will beat Wilma's record pressure? She is still intensifying. I think Patricia has a shot.