Official NWS forecast as of 10:30pm
Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.
Enough CAPE, around 1000 J/Kg in HOU area, closer to 1500 J/Kg a little further North early afternoon, but no wind at all to speak of in the bottom 4 km of the atmosphere, and 20 knot flow at 500 mb, which suggests whatever storms do fire on the front will dump their cool and stable outflow pretty much where they sit, and choke themselves off.
Well, on further review, (checked Utah U wx site, which doesn't have skew-T forecasts like NIU, but does have 3 hour intervals) while widespread severe still looks improbable, and WRF rainfall is meager, at 4 pm there will be a corridor of CAPE near 2000 J/KG along US 59 SW of HOU (MUCAPE, not SBCAPE, but I suspect it is almost the same in this case), so while the isolated storms will be few, far between and short lived, one or two could briefly be rambunctious.
But a tenth or so of rain means more work for the sprinkler on Saturday.
But the damage is bad
