Texas Fall 2019

[Ntxw]

Local weather mentioned it will be the coldest Halloween in almost THREE DECADES.

Then highs in the 70s next week.lol

It looks to be the coldest Halloween we (Austin) have had since 1993. And, assuming the temp forecast verifies, it will go down as one of the top five coldest Halloweens on record.

For DFW the coldest Halloween on average was 1993 - 51F/29F
Lowest Maximum temp 41F 1991
Lowest Minimum temp 29F 1993

DFW Halloween forecast is H-51 L-27, if that happens it will be the coldest Halloween on record. As for the first week of November it's looking to be right about average maybe a degree or 2 below average.

Earliest freeze for DFW in the forecast since 1993. It is very rare to officially get a freeze at the airport in October, once every few decades.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Another day in the 30s with windchills in the 20s. Awesome

[CaptinCrunch]

With yesterdays 46F average @ DFW, October 2019 has now dropped to -0.5 below the monthly mean.

A friend of mine living up in Colorado Springs posted on FB, it was 1F @ 630am with a windchill of -14

[Brent]

It looks to be the coldest Halloween we (Austin) have had since 1993. And, assuming the temp forecast verifies, it will go down as one of the top five coldest Halloweens on record.

For DFW the coldest Halloween on average was 1993 - 51F/29F
Lowest Maximum temp 41F 1991
Lowest Minimum temp 29F 1993

DFW Halloween forecast is H-51 L-27, if that happens it will be the coldest Halloween on record. As for the first week of November it's looking to be right about average maybe a degree or 2 below average.

Earliest freeze for DFW in the forecast since 1993. It is very rare to officially get a freeze at the airport in October, once every few decades.

coming after September which for the first time ever didn't go below 70 at the same airport

we flipped hard

12z Euro below normal through the weekend then quite a warmup next week(70s to near 80!) with a big rain event next Wednesday/Thursday before temps crash again

[CaptinCrunch]

Earliest freeze for DFW in the forecast since 1993. It is very rare to officially get a freeze at the airport in October, once every few decades.

So Ntxw got me thinking October Freezes? The last 2 Octobers to record a freeze was 1980 & 1993, both of which were ENSO Netural Fall/Winter, and both have the earliest freeze Oct 30th

October 1993 recorded 2 official freezes 30th and 31st.
Halloween freezes 1925, 1993, and now 2019

Not only was Halloween 1993 record cold, but let's not forget Leon Lett and the famous 1993 Thanksgiving Day Sleet Bowl against the Miami Dolphins.....
Buffalo is coming to town this year for Thanksgiving, maybe we can have a little Buffalo weather to welcome them with!

[Haris]

A whopping .25” total from this event. Euro sucks

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
209 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019


...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures between 27 and 32 degrees expected.


.LONG TERM...
/Thursday night onward/

We pick up the forecast for Thursday night, when high pressure is
expected to be nearly right overhead. This will lead to a calm and
clear night, which will allow for excellent radiational cooling.
Because of this, forecast low temperatures are below numerical
guidance by a few degrees, and another freeze can be expected
across much of our county warning area. A Freeze Warning is in
effect for most of North and Central Texas tonight (see short term
discussion), and a Freeze Watch is in effect for our southeastern
counties to cover Thursday night`s freeze. Even if you are not in
a Freeze Warning tonight, or your forecast does not explicitly
show a temperature below 32 F, people are strongly urged to take
precautions for freezing temperatures. Remember the "Four P`s:
people, plants, pets, and pipes. Also, please remember to turn off
your sprinklers!

A slow, but steady warming trend will commence beginning Friday
as we kick off November (can you believe it`s already here?).
Friday evening looks like quintessential "football weather", with
evening temperatures starting in the 50s and dropping into the
40s. Skies will be mostly clear, along with light winds. Cool and
dry weather will continue through the weekend.

The next chance for rain will come on Monday and into Tuesday as
another cold front moves into the region. None of the
deterministic models seems to generate a lot of QPF, so right now,
not expecting any widespread soaking rains, or severe weather.
While this cold front looks like it will likely halt the warming
trend, we`re probably not looking at a big cooldown either.
Temperatures look to stay near to a little below normal following
this weak frontal passage.

Beyond the official forecast period, both the deterministic GFS
and ECMWF show a strong cold front approaching the region late
next week (i.e. around Friday, November 8). It`s too early to get
into any details, but the take home message is that it looks like
a continued active pattern, with near or below normal temperatures
is likely to continue for the next 7-10 days, which is also
supported by the latest outlooks from CPC.

[Cpv17]

This isn’t making any sense. The latest CPC 6-10 day precipitation forecast has a bullseye over west Texas, but I just looked at the Euro totals through 10 days and it doesn’t have a drop of rain there.

[Ntxw]

The high today at DFW airport was 44F.

[Brent]

The high today at DFW airport was 44F.

tied with 1993 it appears for a record lowest max

-30 off the average of 74

also the record low tonight is 29 and in danger(all time October low is 24 from October 30 1917)

[gpsnowman]

The high today at DFW airport was 44F.

tied with 1993 it appears for a record lowest max

-30 off the average of 74

also the record low tonight is 29 and in danger

Record low. What's that?

[rwfromkansas]

Will the clouds clear rapidly tonight? Still a solid blanket.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS is very interesting!!

[hamburgerman7070]

18z GFS is very interesting!!

Cpv17, what are you referring to? Just curious.

[gpsnowman]

Will the clouds clear rapidly tonight? Still a solid blanket.

Still quite windy as well. We need the perfect conditions to break the record. No clouds or wind allowed.

[Brent]

18z GFS is very interesting!!

Cpv17, what are you referring to? Just curious.

It tries lol

[Cpv17]

18z GFS is very interesting!!

Cpv17, what are you referring to? Just curious.

A 1050mb high dropping south out of Canada. Then a system coming across Texas. Fantasy land though.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is very interesting!!

Cpv17, what are you referring to? Just curious.

A 1050mb high dropping south out of Canada. Then a system coming across Texas. Fantasy land though.

The ensembles for the past week, posted it about it a few pages back, have been hinting at ridging over the top in Alaska over the EPO domain. It's another -EPO that morphs into a block. A feature to watch for in the coming days is energy in the southwest. If it is there, cold air will drill once again down the inter-mountain west, plains, on eastward. While the GFS run is fantasyland, something could happen in early November shortly.

[hamburgerman7070]

Cpv17, what are you referring to? Just curious.

A 1050mb high dropping south out of Canada. Then a system coming across Texas. Fantasy land though.

The ensembles for the past week, posted it about it a few pages back, have been hinting at ridging over the top in Alaska over the EPO domain. It's another -EPO that morphs into a block. A feature to watch for in the coming days is energy in the southwest. If it is there, cold air will drill once again down the inter-mountain west, plains, on eastward. While the GFS run is fantasyland, something could happen in early November shortly.

Ntxw, i have a few things to ask. What is your best analog for winter? Also, do you think we will have the -epo/wpo most of the winter or will that break down on us? The +IOD i thought favors colder phases of mjo in winter based on what I've heard. I guess i am trying to figure out the positives and negatives going into this winter.

[rwfromkansas]

My temp hasn’t dropped even a smidge.

Dew point has, but need clearing soon. First freeze may bust but tomorrow looks like a sure bet.