Texas Fall-2015
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
I don't think I have seen a more ominous discussion from EWX.
I won't bother highlighting since it is pretty much the whole thing.
431
FXUS64 KEWX 220908
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
408 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
...RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY FLOODING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE FROM WEST TEXAS TO NORTH TEXAS WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AT LOWER LEVELS...INCREASED MOISTURE POOLING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITATION WATER PRODUCT SHOWS
AN AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TEXAS COAST WITH PWS VALUES OF 2.4
INCHES. LATEST GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER PARAMETER MATCHES WELL WITH
IT AND BRINGS THAT AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A GEORGETOWN TO LULLING TO KENEDY LINE. SOME AREAS COULD GET
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED 3 INCHES DURING THIS
PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CLIP PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS A SHORT-PULSE
OF ENERGY PUSHES OUT FROM THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
FOR THIS PERIOD TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS THAT WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING HAZARD...CANT RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS
OF 60 MPH OR SO.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AS THE SHORT-
WAVE/PULSE OF ENERGY ABOVE MENTIONED CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH INTENSITY PICKING UP FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCHES. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICE EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE
HOLDING OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A
NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE MEXICAN EAST COAST PULLS TO THE NORTH
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA. DURING THIS TIME...THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND COME ACROSS OUR AREA
LATE SATURDAY. ALSO...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE REMNANT OF
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
AND INTO OUR AREA. ALSO...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A COASTAL LOW TO MOVE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND PULL UNPRECEDENTED
VALUES OF PWS UP TO 2.55 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ADDING
EXTRA SUPPORT TO ONGOING STORMS.
BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS THE ECM. THE
GFS IS THE SLOWEST OF THE TWO AND KEEPS THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WHILE THE ECM
SOLUTION CLEARS THE WESTERN AREAS AND KEEPS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S FOR NEXT THURSDAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECASTS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT UNFOLDS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES COULD BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HAVE WAYS TO
RECEIVE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
I won't bother highlighting since it is pretty much the whole thing.
431
FXUS64 KEWX 220908
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
408 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
...RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY FLOODING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE FROM WEST TEXAS TO NORTH TEXAS WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AT LOWER LEVELS...INCREASED MOISTURE POOLING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITATION WATER PRODUCT SHOWS
AN AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TEXAS COAST WITH PWS VALUES OF 2.4
INCHES. LATEST GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER PARAMETER MATCHES WELL WITH
IT AND BRINGS THAT AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A GEORGETOWN TO LULLING TO KENEDY LINE. SOME AREAS COULD GET
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED 3 INCHES DURING THIS
PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CLIP PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS A SHORT-PULSE
OF ENERGY PUSHES OUT FROM THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE STRONGER ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
FOR THIS PERIOD TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS THAT WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING HAZARD...CANT RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS
OF 60 MPH OR SO.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AS THE SHORT-
WAVE/PULSE OF ENERGY ABOVE MENTIONED CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH INTENSITY PICKING UP FRIDAY NIGHT.
STORM RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCHES. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICE EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE
HOLDING OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A
NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE MEXICAN EAST COAST PULLS TO THE NORTH
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH
CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA. DURING THIS TIME...THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND COME ACROSS OUR AREA
LATE SATURDAY. ALSO...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE REMNANT OF
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
AND INTO OUR AREA. ALSO...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A COASTAL LOW TO MOVE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND PULL UNPRECEDENTED
VALUES OF PWS UP TO 2.55 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ADDING
EXTRA SUPPORT TO ONGOING STORMS.
BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE MODEL OF CHOICE IS THE ECM. THE
GFS IS THE SLOWEST OF THE TWO AND KEEPS THE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WHILE THE ECM
SOLUTION CLEARS THE WESTERN AREAS AND KEEPS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S FOR NEXT THURSDAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECASTS AS THIS POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT UNFOLDS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES COULD BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HAVE WAYS TO
RECEIVE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
598
FXUS64 KFWD 220929
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
429 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND STREAMING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAST MOVING AND DOWNPOURS
WILL BE BRIEF. STRONG/ORGANIZED SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY BUT
THE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TOO LIMITED FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE GROUNDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SOAKING
UP ANY RAIN WE RECEIVE TODAY. MEANWHILE THE LINE OF STORMS TO OUR
WEST SHOULD MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST AND NORTHEAST...LIKELY
REACHING THE NW ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE
LOWER 80S EAST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND IT IS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE WE CAN SAY THE AREA WILL SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS WHEN WE TRY TO ANSWER WHO
WILL GET HOW MUCH...AND WHAT THE SCALE OF THE FLOODING THREAT IS.
LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE TWO
SEPARATE ROUNDS OF DYNAMICS...EACH IN ITSELF FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THAT MAKES THIS EVENT UNUSUAL IN ITS DURATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA TO SEE MULTI-INCH TOTALS. THE FIRST
ROUND CONCERNS THE THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE
SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES INTERACT WITH
WHAT IS FORECAST TO BE MAJOR HURRICANE PATRICIA IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MAKING LANDFALL AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS MEXICO. OUR
FORECAST HAS BUMPED QPF UP TO THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS
IS...BUT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES MAY BE ADDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
WE DID CONTEMPLATE STARTING THE WATCH SOONER FOR THE NORTHWEST
ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY SOILS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME
FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF TO BEGIN. THE SAVING GRACE IN THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO BE THE VERY DRY GROUNDS FROM OUR SUMMER AND EARLY FALL
DROUGHT. GROUNDS CAN PROBABLY SOAK UP 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE
WATER ISSUES START.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH THE FIRST ROUND IS MORE UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS. THE
COLD POOL IS THE COOL AIR PRODUCED BY THE STORMS...AND BECAUSE
COLD AIR IS MORE DENSE THAN WARM AIR IT SPREADS OUTWARDS. IN
GENERAL...A STRONGER COLD POOL WILL HELP TO PULL A LINE OF STORMS
FARTHER TO THE EAST...SOMETIMES WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT WERE INITIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS. ON THE
OTHER HAND A WEAKER COLD POOL WILL KEEP THE LINE SLOWER MOVING AND
LOCATED IN A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE LIFT. WHILE THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC MODELS USE PARAMETERIZATION TO ESSENTIALLY GUESS THE
STRENGTH OF A COLD POOL THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE TRIES TO EXPLICITLY
MODEL IT. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS ON HOW
STRONG THE COLD POOL WILL BE AND THIS HAS FAR REACHING EFFECTS ON
THE RAINFALL FORECAST TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE EITHER STALLING THE LINE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES AND
REGENERATING COPIOUS CONVECTION ALONG IT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...OR THEY ARE PUSHING THE ENTIRE LINE INTO EAST TEXAS BY
THIS EVENING AND WEAKENING IT AS IT OUTRUNS THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...AND GENERALLY KEEP TOTALS UNDER 2 INCHES TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH STORM ACTIVITY BEING MORE SCATTERED. THE STALLING LINE
SCENARIO IS ONE THAT COULD FOCUS AN INTENSE BAND OF 4-8 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD A STALLING OR SLOW MOVING LINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT BUT WILL BE A BIT
CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF SINCE THE HIGHER TOTALS WOULD BE MORE
LOCALIZED WITH SOME AREAS SEEING VERY LITTLE. AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY THE LINE SHOULD START TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARMER
AIR AND THE HIGH POP/QPF AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE DYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR LIFT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TEMPORARILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF DYNAMICS BEGINS TO RAMP UP.
THE SECOND ROUND CONCERNS A SECOND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND THE INTERACTION OF THAT SYSTEM WITH HURRICANE
PATRICIA. THE INTENSIFYING WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE WILL PRODUCE WHAT IS
CALLED A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT OR PRE OVER THE REGION. BASICALLY
WHAT HAPPENS WITH A PRE IS THAT THERE IS REGION WHERE THE AIR IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BECOMES EXTREMELY DIVERGENT...WHICH CAUSES THE
AIR BENEATH IT TO RISE. WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
THIS AIR WILL PRODUCE AN OFTEN STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING REGION OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS A PRE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A PRE WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS ROUND
OF RAIN WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP 2-6
INCHES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM BONHAM TO DFW TO
KILLEEN...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX/TRANSPORT IS MOST IMPRESSIVE.
OBVIOUSLY THE CONCERN IS THAT IF BOTH ROUNDS OF RAIN PRODUCE BANDS
THAT SET UP OVER THE SAME AREA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 10+
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS WHAT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. THE
GFS IS THE HIGH SIDE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WITH QPF FROM THE
OTHER MODELS MUCH LOWER. EVEN THE RELIABLE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD IN LATEST RUN AND OUR QPF FORECAST OF 3-6 IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN BOTH ITS AND THE CANADIAN FORECAST. AGAIN WE CANT
DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A BAND OVER THE
REGION...SO THIS EVENT BEARS CLOSE MONITORING.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOK TO BE
HANDLING THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF PATRICIA MORE APPROPRIATELY
THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY WED-THURSDAY.
TR.92
FXUS64 KFWD 220929
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
429 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND STREAMING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAST MOVING AND DOWNPOURS
WILL BE BRIEF. STRONG/ORGANIZED SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY BUT
THE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TOO LIMITED FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE GROUNDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SOAKING
UP ANY RAIN WE RECEIVE TODAY. MEANWHILE THE LINE OF STORMS TO OUR
WEST SHOULD MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST AND NORTHEAST...LIKELY
REACHING THE NW ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST TO THE
LOWER 80S EAST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND IT IS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE WE CAN SAY THE AREA WILL SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS WHEN WE TRY TO ANSWER WHO
WILL GET HOW MUCH...AND WHAT THE SCALE OF THE FLOODING THREAT IS.
LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE TWO
SEPARATE ROUNDS OF DYNAMICS...EACH IN ITSELF FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THAT MAKES THIS EVENT UNUSUAL IN ITS DURATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA TO SEE MULTI-INCH TOTALS. THE FIRST
ROUND CONCERNS THE THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE
SECOND ROUND WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES INTERACT WITH
WHAT IS FORECAST TO BE MAJOR HURRICANE PATRICIA IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MAKING LANDFALL AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS MEXICO. OUR
FORECAST HAS BUMPED QPF UP TO THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS
IS...BUT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES MAY BE ADDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
WE DID CONTEMPLATE STARTING THE WATCH SOONER FOR THE NORTHWEST
ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY SOILS IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME
FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF TO BEGIN. THE SAVING GRACE IN THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO BE THE VERY DRY GROUNDS FROM OUR SUMMER AND EARLY FALL
DROUGHT. GROUNDS CAN PROBABLY SOAK UP 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE
WATER ISSUES START.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH THE FIRST ROUND IS MORE UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS. THE
COLD POOL IS THE COOL AIR PRODUCED BY THE STORMS...AND BECAUSE
COLD AIR IS MORE DENSE THAN WARM AIR IT SPREADS OUTWARDS. IN
GENERAL...A STRONGER COLD POOL WILL HELP TO PULL A LINE OF STORMS
FARTHER TO THE EAST...SOMETIMES WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS THAT WERE INITIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS. ON THE
OTHER HAND A WEAKER COLD POOL WILL KEEP THE LINE SLOWER MOVING AND
LOCATED IN A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE LIFT. WHILE THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC MODELS USE PARAMETERIZATION TO ESSENTIALLY GUESS THE
STRENGTH OF A COLD POOL THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE TRIES TO EXPLICITLY
MODEL IT. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS ON HOW
STRONG THE COLD POOL WILL BE AND THIS HAS FAR REACHING EFFECTS ON
THE RAINFALL FORECAST TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE EITHER STALLING THE LINE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES AND
REGENERATING COPIOUS CONVECTION ALONG IT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...OR THEY ARE PUSHING THE ENTIRE LINE INTO EAST TEXAS BY
THIS EVENING AND WEAKENING IT AS IT OUTRUNS THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...AND GENERALLY KEEP TOTALS UNDER 2 INCHES TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH STORM ACTIVITY BEING MORE SCATTERED. THE STALLING LINE
SCENARIO IS ONE THAT COULD FOCUS AN INTENSE BAND OF 4-8 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD A STALLING OR SLOW MOVING LINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT BUT WILL BE A BIT
CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF SINCE THE HIGHER TOTALS WOULD BE MORE
LOCALIZED WITH SOME AREAS SEEING VERY LITTLE. AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY THE LINE SHOULD START TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARMER
AIR AND THE HIGH POP/QPF AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE DYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR LIFT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TEMPORARILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF DYNAMICS BEGINS TO RAMP UP.
THE SECOND ROUND CONCERNS A SECOND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND THE INTERACTION OF THAT SYSTEM WITH HURRICANE
PATRICIA. THE INTENSIFYING WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE WILL PRODUCE WHAT IS
CALLED A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT OR PRE OVER THE REGION. BASICALLY
WHAT HAPPENS WITH A PRE IS THAT THERE IS REGION WHERE THE AIR IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BECOMES EXTREMELY DIVERGENT...WHICH CAUSES THE
AIR BENEATH IT TO RISE. WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
THIS AIR WILL PRODUCE AN OFTEN STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING REGION OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS A PRE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A PRE WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THIS ROUND
OF RAIN WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP 2-6
INCHES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM BONHAM TO DFW TO
KILLEEN...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX/TRANSPORT IS MOST IMPRESSIVE.
OBVIOUSLY THE CONCERN IS THAT IF BOTH ROUNDS OF RAIN PRODUCE BANDS
THAT SET UP OVER THE SAME AREA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 10+
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS WHAT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. THE
GFS IS THE HIGH SIDE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WITH QPF FROM THE
OTHER MODELS MUCH LOWER. EVEN THE RELIABLE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD IN LATEST RUN AND OUR QPF FORECAST OF 3-6 IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN BOTH ITS AND THE CANADIAN FORECAST. AGAIN WE CANT
DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A BAND OVER THE
REGION...SO THIS EVENT BEARS CLOSE MONITORING.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH LOOK TO BE
HANDLING THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF PATRICIA MORE APPROPRIATELY
THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY WED-THURSDAY.
TR.92
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
A sign of things to come from the Panhandle...guess those playa lakes out there are going to be full!
-----
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC117-359-221145-
/O.EXT.KAMA.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-151022T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
140 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS EXTENDED THE
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 AM CDT
* AT 139 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.
FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HEREFORD...VEGA...ADRIAN...BOYS RANCH...WILDORADO...GLENRIO...
SIMMS...BOOTLEG AND DAWN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.
PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.
&&
-----
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC117-359-221145-
/O.EXT.KAMA.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-151022T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
140 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS EXTENDED THE
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
* UNTIL 645 AM CDT
* AT 139 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.
FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HEREFORD...VEGA...ADRIAN...BOYS RANCH...WILDORADO...GLENRIO...
SIMMS...BOOTLEG AND DAWN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.
PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.
&&
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
It is concerning to see the 0Z NAM, that's a lot of rain, way too much in a relatively short period. Over 48-72 hours, I feel we can handle 3-5" generally ok, 8-12" is a completely different story.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall-2015
Model wobbles continue. I encourage anyone reading this to not focus on one location, this will continue to wobble around. The message needs to be SOMEWHERE in Texas is going to get copious amounts of rain, and likely have major flash flooding, and it might be you.
TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. The hydraulic forces of a foot of moving water are much, much stronger than you think.
TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. The hydraulic forces of a foot of moving water are much, much stronger than you think.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3506
- Age: 28
- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Sometimes I get dreams that tell or show me something and something similar happens in real life, in March I had this dream of a terrible flood in a city near my house in the metroplex. I thought my dream may have been telling me about all the rain later in the spring, lake Grapevine had formed a river behind my school, which is the city I dreamed about. Perhaps my dream was telling me about this event.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
That line is exiting the pahandle and is in NW Texas. HRRR unloads a boatload of rain on them today (Childress to Wichita Falls) from 5-9+ inches of rain. Not inconceivable the globals underestimated rich moisture involved even well before Patricia is involved. Hi res guidance will be valuable today.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Help support Storm2K!
Re: Texas Fall-2015
Good luck to you guys in TX, GFS still continues to show widespread 5-10" for many of you. It shows the heaviest tropical rains Saturday and Sunday, possibly into Monday also for SE TX.
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-
weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Not often you see map from the WPC showing such widespread, high QPF prediction totals. We have had 0.15 so far from this event according to my gauge.
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-
weatherdude1108
- Category 5
- Posts: 4228
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Could be a long few days around the Lone Star state.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5853
- Age: 59
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Here we go....this will be interesting......( glad I run inside..LOL)
753
FXUS64 KHGX 221218
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
718 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.AVIATION...
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING... WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM
HEATING. PREVAILING VCSH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND WILL HANDLE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
TERMINALS WITH TEMPO AMENDMENTS. COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT HOLDING OFF ON MENTION NOW DUE TO
ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY... BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE LOWER IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT... WITH
IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS AFTER 08Z.
OTHERWISE... ELEVATED EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY... WITH STRONGER GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. EVEN WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LATER THIS WEEK FOR SOME OR ALL OF SE TEXAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING SE TEXAS WAS BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ AND
AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS AT 330 AM INCLUDED A LONG- LIVED MCS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE PANHANDLE. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO
THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
SHEARS OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
EVEN THOUGH THE OFFSHORE MCS WILL LIKELY STAY OVER THE GULF...THE
MODELS DO BRING DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SE TEXAS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 45 TODAY AS PW/S REACH TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVE OVERHEAD. PW/S THEN FALL AS SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE EAST OCCURS...AND A MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM NORTH TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...A
CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A COMBINATION OF EVENTS OCCUR. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
PATRICIA IN THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH LEFT
OVER THE FROM TODAY/S UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS SEEN BY FORECAST PW/S IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AGREE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FROM SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...TO AREA
WIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING MONDAY...WITH
THE GFS MOVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE LOW OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACTUALLY LIKE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS IN DIMINISHING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
40
MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE PULLING NORTHWARD FROM A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER OR
NOT THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITH LITTLE
AGREEMENT AMONGST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. ANTICIPATE THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO REMAIN BEYOND 60 NM THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD DRIFT AS
SEVERAL PLATFORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF HAVE REPORTED GALE FORCE
WINDS WITH THESE STORMS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THIS PERSISTENT FETCH PROMOTING
WAVES IN THE 6 TO 9 FEET RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. A BRIEF LULL IN
ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT... BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. STILL SEEING DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE /THE GFS
PULLS THE LOW INLAND TUESDAY... WHILE THE EUROPEAN KEEPS IT OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF/. THIS DISAGREEMENT LENDS ITSELF TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST... BUT EXPECT
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THIS COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD AGAIN AS WELL IN RESPONSE
TO THIS FEATURE... WITH 8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A PROBLEM TODAY DURING TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS
PROMOTE TIDES ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...
COASTAL FLOODING MAY RESUME AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY AGAIN
BE NEEDED.
SELECTED TIMES FOR HIGH AND LOW TIDES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE
LISTED BELOW. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE SEE THE TIDE FORECAST
PRODUCT.
GALVESTON CHANNEL /PIER 21/
LOW TIDE AT 6:35 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 10:32 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 6:04 PM.
FREEPORT USCG
LOW TIDE AT 7:48 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 10:27 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 5:26 PM.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 81 71 83 70 79 / 60 50 40 40 80
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 72 84 73 82 / 40 30 20 20 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 75 82 75 81 / 40 20 20 20 50
753
FXUS64 KHGX 221218
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
718 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
.AVIATION...
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND THIS MORNING... WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM
HEATING. PREVAILING VCSH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND WILL HANDLE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
TERMINALS WITH TEMPO AMENDMENTS. COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT HOLDING OFF ON MENTION NOW DUE TO
ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY... BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE LOWER IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT... WITH
IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS AFTER 08Z.
OTHERWISE... ELEVATED EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY... WITH STRONGER GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. EVEN WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LATER THIS WEEK FOR SOME OR ALL OF SE TEXAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING SE TEXAS WAS BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ AND
AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS AT 330 AM INCLUDED A LONG- LIVED MCS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE PANHANDLE. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE TIED TO
THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
SHEARS OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
EVEN THOUGH THE OFFSHORE MCS WILL LIKELY STAY OVER THE GULF...THE
MODELS DO BRING DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO MOST OF SE TEXAS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 45 TODAY AS PW/S REACH TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVE OVERHEAD. PW/S THEN FALL AS SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE EAST OCCURS...AND A MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM NORTH TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS...A
CONSENSUS HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A COMBINATION OF EVENTS OCCUR. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
PATRICIA IN THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. ALSO...THE UPPER TROUGH LEFT
OVER THE FROM TODAY/S UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS SEEN BY FORECAST PW/S IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AGREE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FROM SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...TO AREA
WIDE BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL
COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING MONDAY...WITH
THE GFS MOVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
ECMWF KEEPING THE LOW OFFSHORE. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACTUALLY LIKE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION BUT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS IN DIMINISHING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
40
MARINE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE PULLING NORTHWARD FROM A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER OR
NOT THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITH LITTLE
AGREEMENT AMONGST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. ANTICIPATE THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO REMAIN BEYOND 60 NM THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NORTHWARD DRIFT AS
SEVERAL PLATFORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF HAVE REPORTED GALE FORCE
WINDS WITH THESE STORMS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY... WITH THIS PERSISTENT FETCH PROMOTING
WAVES IN THE 6 TO 9 FEET RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING PER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE...BUT AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. A BRIEF LULL IN
ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT... BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. STILL SEEING DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE /THE GFS
PULLS THE LOW INLAND TUESDAY... WHILE THE EUROPEAN KEEPS IT OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF/. THIS DISAGREEMENT LENDS ITSELF TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST... BUT EXPECT
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THIS COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD AGAIN AS WELL IN RESPONSE
TO THIS FEATURE... WITH 8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A PROBLEM TODAY DURING TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS
PROMOTE TIDES ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...
COASTAL FLOODING MAY RESUME AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY AGAIN
BE NEEDED.
SELECTED TIMES FOR HIGH AND LOW TIDES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE
LISTED BELOW. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE SEE THE TIDE FORECAST
PRODUCT.
GALVESTON CHANNEL /PIER 21/
LOW TIDE AT 6:35 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 10:32 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 6:04 PM.
FREEPORT USCG
LOW TIDE AT 7:48 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 10:27 AM.
LOW TIDE AT 5:26 PM.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 81 71 83 70 79 / 60 50 40 40 80
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 72 84 73 82 / 40 30 20 20 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 75 82 75 81 / 40 20 20 20 50
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see tireman summer is not undefeated, climo ate it. Maybe we will see sightings of wxman57 on his waterbike and Portastorm tubing down his street.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Help support Storm2K!
Help support Storm2K!
-
Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5853
- Age: 59
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Re: Texas Fall-2015
NDG wrote:Good luck to you guys in TX, GFS still continues to show widespread 5-10" for many of you. It shows the heaviest tropical rains Saturday and Sunday, possibly into Monday also for SE TX.
We may need a boat NDG...LOL
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-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re:
Ntxw wrote::uarrow: see tireman summer is not undefeated, climo ate it. Maybe we will see sightings of wxman57 on his waterbike and Portastorm tubing down his street.
I'm in Orlando this week. No waterbike needed. Looks like a West Gulf Low (non-tropical) for the weekend. Lots of rain for Texas.
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Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:I'm in Orlando this week. No waterbike needed. Looks like a West Gulf Low (non-tropical) for the weekend. Lots of rain for Texas.
Shucks, you leave and we get rain? hmm
I'm surprised HGX hasn't placed flash flood watches yet especially with the coastal low expected. Though I'm sure they will soon enough.
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northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Yeah, quite a rain event in store this weekend for many of you in Texas. This looks potentially very serious with widespread flood potential, especiall across Southern and Southeast Texas. Be safe over there to all of the Storm2K family members out in the Lone Star State this weekend!!!
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Tireman4
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Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:wxman57 wrote:I'm in Orlando this week. No waterbike needed. Looks like a West Gulf Low (non-tropical) for the weekend. Lots of rain for Texas.
Shucks, you leave and we get rain? hmm
Yeah, is that not always the case..LOL
I'm surprised HGX hasn't placed flash flood watches yet especially with the coastal low expected. Though I'm sure they will soon enough.
They talked about it....
DISCUSSION...
A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. EVEN WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LATER THIS WEEK FOR SOME OR ALL OF SE TEXAS.
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re:
dhweather wrote:It is concerning to see the 0Z NAM, that's a lot of rain, way too much in a relatively short period. Over 48-72 hours, I feel we can handle 3-5" generally ok, 8-12" is a completely different story.
Same here. I think we can absorb about 4" or so (depending on how many soil cracks are there) before it saturates and swells back up and toads and earthworms start to surface, and flooding commences of course.
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TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Wichita, Kansas