Texas Fall 2024

[Ntxw]

GEFS suddenly has some bigger storms showing up here

It's been mostly a dusting or so

Im telling y'all this pattern has all kinds of potential right off the bat for winter

This upcoming pattern isn't a warm one. We've been lacking this for so long. Those 1989 analogs popping up daily on the packages signaled it was going to be a different regime, regardless the outcome.

I know we deal with the hand that gets dealt us, but if it's a front loaded winter, I'm hoping we all will cash in

Severe -EPO/-WPO don't tend to be just front loaded. We will soon know if something is going on in the Pacific to cause the change. The La Nina fail on ONI tells us other things are driving the pattern.

[Brent]

GEFS suddenly has some bigger storms showing up here

It's been mostly a dusting or so

Im telling y'all this pattern has all kinds of potential right off the bat for winter

This upcoming pattern isn't a warm one. We've been lacking this for so long. Those 1989 analogs popping up daily on the packages signaled it was going to be a different regime, regardless the outcome.

I know we deal with the hand that gets dealt us, but if it's a front loaded winter, I'm hoping we all will cash in

Yeah honestly I hate waiting til February because look at the last two years... Nothing happened much rather just get it over with and not have to worry about it

But who knows this could be a pattern all winter at this rate. Nobody knows

[Golfisnteasy7575]

This upcoming pattern isn't a warm one. We've been lacking this for so long. Those 1989 analogs popping up daily on the packages signaled it was going to be a different regime, regardless the outcome.

I know we deal with the hand that gets dealt us, but if it's a front loaded winter, I'm hoping we all will cash in

Yeah honestly I hate waiting til February because look at the last two years... Nothing happened much rather just get it over with and not have to worry about it

But who knows this could be a pattern all winter at this rate. Nobody knows

We were lucky last January. Just enough moisture for a good snow event. 15 degrees with snow

[Ntxw]

Euro weeklies keep the NEPAC ridging going through mid-late December. For once, we might see a cold December!

[Golfisnteasy7575]

This upcoming pattern isn't a warm one. We've been lacking this for so long. Those 1989 analogs popping up daily on the packages signaled it was going to be a different regime, regardless the outcome.

I know we deal with the hand that gets dealt us, but if it's a front loaded winter, I'm hoping we all will cash in

Severe -EPO/-WPO don't tend to be just front loaded. We will soon know if something is going on in the Pacific to cause the change. The La Nina fail on ONI tells us other things are driving the pattern.

If the pdo keeps rising, I would be doing back flips, cartwheels with excitement because at that point, I would be pretty confident the changes are going to happen

[Ntxw]

I know we deal with the hand that gets dealt us, but if it's a front loaded winter, I'm hoping we all will cash in

Severe -EPO/-WPO don't tend to be just front loaded. We will soon know if something is going on in the Pacific to cause the change. The La Nina fail on ONI tells us other things are driving the pattern.

If the pdo keeps rising, I would be doing back flips, cartwheels with excitement because at that point, I would be pretty confident the changes are going to happen

Sometimes it's the change from one point to another that creates the most exciting weather. Like 2013-2015 PDO rise, and 2019-2021 PDO fall. In most of those years, you had ENSO fails because things were shifting.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

This upcoming pattern isn't a warm one. We've been lacking this for so long. Those 1989 analogs popping up daily on the packages signaled it was going to be a different regime, regardless the outcome.

I know we deal with the hand that gets dealt us, but if it's a front loaded winter, I'm hoping we all will cash in

Severe -EPO/-WPO don't tend to be just front loaded. We will soon know if something is going on in the Pacific to cause the change. The La Nina fail on ONI tells us other things are driving the pattern.

A weak east based niña would be okay for us I believe, but usually they have a warm month, which is usually December and 21-22 was a good example. That niña was stronger but still east based.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro with high trajectory would likely yield a first hard freeze for most.

[Stratton23]

Euro AIFS with a weaker western us ridge which allows the trough to dig much further west, arctic air is poised to come straight down into texas and not SE, other models have been trending towards this as well

[Brent]

Euro AIFS with a weaker western us ridge which allows the trough to dig much further west, arctic air is poised to come straight down into texas and not SE, other models have been trending towards this as well

That's been the trend the last few years tbh. My friends back east always complain about it

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro with high trajectory would likely yield a first hard freeze for most.

https://i.imgur.com/FIFkBTW.gif

You got to see the blocking pattern from the Euro, it's WILD

[wxman22]

It's important to remember that due to geography there is the tendency of cold air to build and dam along the lee side of the Rockies and dive south. This often allows arctic air to dive into the southern plains even if the 500mb trough is positioned to the northeast of us.For us in Texas and Oklahoma when figuring out the potential of an arctic air mass looking at the surface features is just as important as the upper level flow.This unique geography also allows the southern plains to receive more winter weather events than those at the same latitudes east of us in the deep south.

[Brent]

It's important to remember that due to geography there is the tendency of cold air to build and dam along the lee side of the Rockies and dive south. This often allows arctic air to dive into the southern plains even if the 500mb trough is positioned to the northeast of us.For us in Texas and Oklahoma when figuring out the potential of an arctic air mass looking at the surface features is just as important as the upper level flow.This unique geography also allows the southern plains to receive more winter weather events than those at the same latitudes east of us in the deep south.

Yeah I have a lot of friends back east who haven't seen anything remotely like we've had since 2021 and I also read last night that Charlotte NC's snow average has dropped several inches in the last decade because it's not snowing like it used to kind of crazy

They can't even talk about February 2021 tbh it was miserable over there

[Cpv17]

Huge difference between the Euro and GFS regarding rainfall in southeast TX. Please let the Euro pan out! We need the rain!

[Ntxw]

Cold front coming through DFW this morning. One more hot day on Wednesday.

[Brent]

We may not hit 60 again for a very long time. Wednesdays front has trended faster here before peak heating

Until last week we hadn't even had a high below 60 since April. Crazy flip

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two cold fronts this week will deliver multiple shots of cooler
air into North and Central Texas. The first front will arrive
Monday morning, bringing temperatures back closer to seasonal
normals.

- Another cold front arrives Wednesday night bringing much cooler
temperatures for Thanksgiving Day.

- The majority of North Texas and several locations across
Central Texas will see the first freeze of the season Thursday
night into Friday morning.


We will remain in an active weather pattern during the latter half
of the week as the next upper trough progresses eastward across
the southern Plains. The associated cold front will push south
and into our area Wednesday evening/night with a much colder
airmass behind it. Prepare for a chilly/cool and breezy
Thanksgiving Day. The day will start cloudy, but then should
slowly clear out in the afternoon as the drier air arrives. A cold
night will follow as North Texas`s first widespread freeze is
becoming more likely. A few spots across Central Texas will also
see their first freeze of the season. Sufficient radiational
cooling in addition to the light northerly winds should allow
temperatures to drop to the upper 20s and mid 30s.

The seasonably cooler and dry conditions will continue Friday and
into the weekend with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the
30s/40s. The majority of the extended guidance is showing another
cold front late Saturday which could bring a much colder Canadian
airmass into the region.

[HockeyTx82]

Yup, sure feels nice out. I dropped my car off about a mile from my office on the UNT Campus to get an oil change. I walked in with a hot cup of coffee in my hand and a north wind refreshing my lungs.

Life's good!

[Ntxw]

We may not hit 60 again for a very long time. Wednesdays front has trended faster here before peak heating

Until last week we hadn't even had a high below 60 since April. Crazy flip

You'll be below normal for awhile. I would watch the opening days of December, sure the core of the cold may go east a bit initially but there is enough southern stream energy that it may try something.

I'm fairly confident a sustained regime change is happening.

[Brent]

We may not hit 60 again for a very long time. Wednesdays front has trended faster here before peak heating

Until last week we hadn't even had a high below 60 since April. Crazy flip

You'll be below normal for awhile. I would watch the opening days of December, sure the core of the cold may go east a bit initially but there is enough southern stream energy that it may try something.

I'm fairly confident a sustained regime change is happening.

Yeah I'm still seeing some noise on the ensembles. Obviously no big storm but any snow this early would be a big win

I'm more curious to see if the pattern reloads later in the month we'll probably have better shots then