STORM2K

Let's not forget the sage advice we all received years ago from one wxman57 ... this far out we need to pay closer attention to the projected 500mb flow and not the surface depictions from the model operational runs. Seeing some differences here in what the 0z GFS and Euro show at 240h:

Portastorm wrote:Let's not forget the sage advice we all received years ago from one wxman57 ... this far out we need to pay closer attention to the projected 500mb flow and not the surface depictions from the model operational runs. Seeing some differences here in what the 0z GFS and Euro show at 240h:

That Aleutian Low needs to die a 1000 fiery deaths.

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:That Aleutian Low needs to die a 1000 fiery deaths.

Agreed.

TWC website has a rain/snow mix for Dallas next Thursday 12/8.

This is really going to be interesting. Stepping down as Srain says...

Just maybe I will get to see some snow around Christmas time up there in NTX.

Pretty good chances from all guidance an arctic blast is coming next week. We didn't have any last winter. I think this will be the case where source region will come into play if we are to beat the guidance with faster/colder than modeled. Cyclogenesis will determine precip, which I don't expect the models to grasp until guidance sees where the cold air actually is. There will be HP to the north.

Will this blast have staying power or will we warm up after a day or two?

The 12Z ECMWF trended significantly slower and further South with the weekend cold core upper low more in line with the GFS solutions into Mexcio. The Euro also suggests a Coastal trough/low organizes Saturday evening and moves up the Texas Coast slowly into Monday prolonging the raw and wet weather across the Lone Star State.

KatDaddy wrote:Just maybe I will get to see some snow around Christmas time up there in NTX.

Let's just shoot for our first official freeze here in DFW, as of right now our next chance for that will be between Dec 9th and 13th.

Latest First Freeze for DFW
Rank Date Temperature
1... Jan 4, 1972.... 21
2... Dec 26, 1933.... 27
3... Dec 25, 1965.... 31
4... Dec 21, 1998.... 22
5... Dec 17, 1921.... 32
(tie) Dec 17, 1930.... 32
7... Dec 16, 2007.... 28
8... Dec 15, 1931.... 32
(tie) Dec 15, 1981.... 32
10... Dec 14, 1923.... 30

The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC now all show some kind of big arctic outbreak for the Western/Central US including Texas in a week's time. Seems there is growing consensus on this event. Will be interesting to see just how cold it gets and where the cold ends up.

Euro goes from 60s next Wednesday afternoon at DFW to a freeze Thursday morning.

Looks like a hard freeze on the 9th with a 1040ish mb high over head and solid snow pack from Mongolia to I-40.

Ralph's Weather wrote:Looks like a hard freeze on the 9th with a 1040ish mb high over head and solid snow pack from Mongolia to I-40.

Post of the season

Ntxw wrote:

Ralph's Weather wrote:Looks like a hard freeze on the 9th with a 1040ish mb high over head and solid snow pack from Mongolia to I-40.

Post of the season

I hate to be a party pooper but I did just look at the projected temps per the 12z Euro op. I would say a freeze is likely for North Texas but not a hard freeze. The only place it shows temps below 25 is in the Panhandle. Of course this is 240 hours out ... plenty will change between now and then.

Portastorm wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Ralph's Weather wrote:Looks like a hard freeze on the 9th with a 1040ish mb high over head and solid snow pack from Mongolia to I-40.

Post of the season

I hate to be a party pooper but I did just look at the projected temps per the 12z Euro op. I would say a freeze is likely for North Texas but not a hard freeze. The only place it shows temps below 25 is in the Panhandle. Of course this is 240 hours out ... plenty will change between now and then.

Flippity Floppity young Porta. You know...

Portastorm wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Ralph's Weather wrote:Looks like a hard freeze on the 9th with a 1040ish mb high over head and solid snow pack from Mongolia to I-40.

Post of the season

I hate to be a party pooper but I did just look at the projected temps per the 12z Euro op. I would say a freeze is likely for North Texas but not a hard freeze. The only place it shows temps below 25 is in the Panhandle. Of course this is 240 hours out ... plenty will change between now and then.

With -20s in southern Canada and -10s in the northern plains I will take the under with sprawling high pressure.

It is a good way to start winter, with some real cold air to work with. It is only early Dec after all and getting a high in the 30s and a freeze is a win. Many of us are more than sick of warmth! W Canada remains cold even after the outbreak so I like our odds of more shots when/if the pattern favors.

Portastorm wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Ralph's Weather wrote:Looks like a hard freeze on the 9th with a 1040ish mb high over head and solid snow pack from Mongolia to I-40.

Post of the season

I hate to be a party pooper but I did just look at the projected temps per the 12z Euro op. I would say a freeze is likely for North Texas but not a hard freeze. The only place it shows temps below 25 is in the Panhandle. Of course this is 240 hours out ... plenty will change between now and then.

12Z GFS shows a 1035mb high overhead and dewpoints near 0 next Friday morning. Still many more model runs to watch before we know anything with certainty.

I find it hard to believe the temps of the Euro with that type of setup.

The MSLP levels on the GFS seem a bit more realistic.