Texas Fall-2016

[orangeblood]

Very impressive US Arctic Outbreak on the Euro Ensembles next week...where will the storm develop ????

[horselattitudesfarm]

I dont know what the QBO does entirely yet, but im very interested!

Quasi-Biennial Oscillaton: Basically flow of stratospheric winds around the north polar area. There is so much to weather....guess that's why I should get a degree to help me understand it better. . By the way, we got over an inch of rain so far and counting!!!!. Unfortunately, the Low-level jet winds last night exceeded 70 mph over the higher peaks and now Gatlinburg and Pidgeon Forge are on fire and being evacuated. Goodbye Dollywood

[Ntxw]

All eyes will be up in Alaska this week! How low will she go?

[Ntxw]

Very impressive US Arctic Outbreak on the Euro Ensembles next week...where will the storm develop ????

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... hem_11.png

I'd hedge my money somewhere south. There will probably even be some southeast ridge fighting it but the shallow dome will still force it's way. Which usually spells some kind of ice storm somewhere.

[Ntxw]

I dont know what the QBO does entirely yet, but im very interested!

Quasi-Biennial Oscillaton: Basically flow of stratospheric winds around the north polar area. There is so much to weather....guess that's why I should get a degree to help me understand it better. . By the way, we got over an inch of rain so far and counting!!!!. Unfortunately, the Low-level jet winds last night exceeded 70 mph over the higher peaks and now Gatlinburg and Pidgeon Forge are on fire and being evacuated. Goodbye Dollywood

Didn't it rain last night around Gatlinburg? I saw the stuff on the news and what tragedy..my god.

[horselattitudesfarm]

[quote="Ntxw"]All eyes will be up in Alaska this week! How low will she go?

Holy frozen cow! One of many reasons I don't live there. Had a friend who did who talked of engine warmers, flat spots on frozen tires and skin freezing in seconds. NOOOO THANK YOU!

[horselattitudesfarm]

I dont know what the QBO does entirely yet, but im very interested!

Quasi-Biennial Oscillaton: Basically flow of stratospheric winds around the north polar area. There is so much to weather....guess that's why I should get a degree to help me understand it better. . By the way, we got over an inch of rain so far and counting!!!!. Unfortunately, the Low-level jet winds last night exceeded 70 mph over the higher peaks and now Gatlinburg and Pidgeon Forge are on fire and being evacuated. Goodbye Dollywood

Didn't it rain last night around Gatlinburg? I saw the stuff on the news and what tragedy..my god.

Just a little and it couldn't compete with the dry fuels and winds already there. Should be more rain tonight and tommorrow

[Portastorm]

Watching the Gatlinburg tragedy unfold last night, I was reminded of Bastrop in 2011 and the scary things I personally witnessed over there. Much like Bastrop which had a tropical system blowing strong winds to spread the fire ... Gatlinburg had 50-mile an hour winds spreading its fire. They did get rain last night but it wasn't enough to douse the firestorm. More rain today which hopefully will do the trick. But back to our weather ...

Euro ensembles look impressive. Typical GFS op runs all over the map and doing its usual of trying to hold back the cold air with a surface low developing in the Southern Plains. Wish I had a buck for every time I've seen it do that ... I could buy y'all lunch.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291253
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
653 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Warm front continues to lift northward and VLIFR conditions mainly
east to west through the ELA/CXO/DWH/IAH/6R3 corridor with
improving visby to the south. Area of showers and a few
thunderstorms rapidly forming between 11R-CLL-UTS-DKR. Expecting
the area of showers to expand and shift east and northeast the
next few hours. Visby should be improving across the board through
15z. As the cold front pushes into the area may get one last
squeeze to help development of showers and isolated thunderstorms
through mid afternoon for IAH/HOU. Dry NW-N flow takes over
tonight with VFR conditions following a few hours after FROPA.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread dense fog noted across much of the southern half of SE
TX this morning...with the limited visibilities expected to ling-
er into the mid/late morning hours. This fog developed last night
in the wake of the yesterday`s cold front which has returned back
inland as a warm front. This boundary is expected to stall at/ar-
ound its current location (roughly along a Bellville to Cleveland
line) and could act as a focus for showers/isolated storms (given
some daytime heating). Rain chances will also buoyed with the ap-
proach/passage of a second stronger cold front this afternoon. At
this time only expecting widely scattered activity coverage given
the limited instability.

The cooler/drier weather in the wake of this front for Weds/Thurs
is expected to come to an end Friday. The return of onshore winds
and low-level moisture will be setting the stage for a wet/active
weekend. A deep closed upper low/trof (developing in the vicinity
of the California Baja) is progged to move east across nrn Mexico
Sat/Sun with a coastal surface trof setting up over the middle to
lower TX coast out ahead of it. These systems combined with poss-
ible PWs near 2" are all pointing to widespread unsettled weather
for most of the weekend with heavy rain as the main issue. Models
appear to be in slightly better agreement with these runs, but we
are still seeing the biggest differences with timing. So for now,
stay tuned. Will be adding some initial wording for this weekend
in the HWO later this morning. 41

MARINE...
Quite the variation across the UTCW with winds of 0-8 knots
nearshore and 15-19kts offshore and seas of 6-9 feet. Have kept the
marine dense fog going through 8 am with visibilities of 1 mile or
less and extended the SCA nearshore to 6 am and noon for the
offshore waters. Winds become southwest today and in general relax
somewhat ahead of the incoming cold front. Expect the cold front to
move off the coast between 6 and 8 pm near Matagorda Bay then
Galveston Bay 7-9 pm. Winds in the wake of the front gradually
increase and may need SCA/SCEC by Wednesday 3-6 am for the Gulf
waters. Northerly winds Wednesday through Thursday morning then
winds begin to veer to the NE and E. Long easterly fetch develops
late Friday as coastal troughing forms and flow ramps up bringing
another round of SCA conditions. Eventually the next front kicks
through Saturday night/early Sunday with SCA conditions again in the
wake of the frontal passage.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 47 66 40 67 / 30 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 78 53 69 41 67 / 30 30 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 61 71 52 66 / 20 40 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...
Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45

[orangeblood]

Very impressive US Arctic Outbreak on the Euro Ensembles next week...where will the storm develop ????

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... hem_11.png

I'd hedge my money somewhere south. There will probably even be some southeast ridge fighting it but the shallow dome will still force it's way. Which usually spells some kind of ice storm somewhere.

Yep, usually during this time frame the models develop the storm up in Kansas and trend southward as we get closer - almost always underestimate the southward push of the dense arctic air....something to keep a close eye on over the coming days

Impressive Cold in Alaska for this time of year, appears it might be reinforced with northeast siberian air in the coming days before it heads south this weekend. Strength of the HP is key to our chances!!

[Ntxw]

Reminder that we will be moving to the 2016-2017 winter thread the day after tomorrow beginning the first day of meteorological winter. This will be consistent with the theme we have been going about it using the trimonth seasons (DJF in this case). Fittingly there will be plenty of winter to kick off the thread!

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks to me like the issue for big cold will be the GoA low, there is ridging to its south and north and if those could connect then we would be in the icebox.

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

Another cold front will accompany the upper level system and
should work its way south through North and Central Texas today.
Convection associated with both the shortwave and the front is
not expected to develop until the system encounters sufficient
moisture, and at this time it looks like this will be well east of
the region. For our area, cooler and drier air can be expected
behind the front, with low temperatures falling into the 30s and
40s tonight, then into the 30s area-wide tomorrow night. The
Northern Plains upper low will have headed east across the Great
Lakes during this time, leaving Texas beneath a brief period of
zonal flow and tranquil weather. Both Wednesday and Thursday will
see highs in the 50s and 60s following the aforementioned chilly
nights.

On Friday, we will begin to see a pattern change as an upper low
deepens over the Southwestern U.S., then proceeds to deepen even
further while sliding east over Northern Mexico. The positioning
of this system will allow a modified Arctic airmass to spill south
down the eastern face of the Rockies, reaching North Texas Friday
night and the upper Texas Coast Saturday. The frontal zone will
intensify off the Texas Coast as the upper low continues east.
This will generate strong isentropic lift across much of Texas and
Oklahoma over the weekend. Widespread rain will be the result both
Saturday and Sunday with temperatures remaining in the 40s and 50s
night and day. The dreary weather will continue until the upper
low finally swings east into the Lower MS Valley/Northwest Gulf.

It is in this facet that we continue to see model discrepancies
regarding timing. The models do agree on the transition of the low
into an open trough as it shifts east of Texas. The ECMWF takes
the trough axis east of the forecast area Sunday Night, with the
GFS 18 to 24 hours later (the Canadian through 144 hours is
actually in between the two). So this forecast package will show
a compromise, bringing an end to the heaviest precipitation Sunday
Night, but keeping low POPs in place on Monday.

The upper trough will accelerate as it heads northeast towards
the East Coast. Return flow and a warm-up will occur Tuesday and
Wednesday as yet another upper low dives south from the Pacific
Northwest to the Desert Southwest. This may set us up for another
modified Arctic front and a possible cold/wet episode late next
week or the following weekend.

[gboudx]

Unfortunately, the Low-level jet winds last night exceeded 70 mph over the higher peaks and now Gatlinburg and Pidgeon Forge are on fire and being evacuated. Goodbye Dollywood

Jeff Lindner sent an update this morning and discussed those fires. I'll try and embed the picture of a weather station he included.

Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge Wildfire Complex:

An incredibly devastating night for the resort areas of eastern TN as at least 14 wildfires driven by 50-70mph winds burned through Gatlinburg, Sevierville, Kodak, and Pigeon Forge/Dollywood. The magnitude of the fire that swept across this area yesterday afternoon and evening is rare for the eastern US. This exact event is what has been feared for so many weeks as crews have battled to gain control of the many fires burning in the Great Smokey Mountains in fear that weather conditions would change rapidly (as is normal for this time of year) …yesterday was that day.

The same low level jet that was roaring overhead of SE TX yesterday moved over E TN late yesterday afternoon with frequent surface wind gust of 50-70mph. Fires that had been burning in the Great Smokey Mountains to the south of Gatlinburg for weeks exploded even with RH values of 50% or higher being driven by intense surface winds. At 400pm the fire complex was nearing Gatlinburg from the SE/S/SW.

Between 400pm-1100pm the wildfire erupted into a firestorm with forward burn rates of nearly 50mph at times racing the fire northward through large sections of Gatlinburg and into Pigeon Forge. Crews working fire lines to protect the towns during the day were rapidly overrun and tremendous spotting of embers in the strong winds resulted in the initial fire expanding into at least 14 different fires in the matter of a few hours. Air support was grounded due to the strong surface winds and ground crews Fire rapidly overran the primary evacuation route out of Gatlinburg…see images below. Visitors in many of the areas hotels were trapped in the hotels as fire rapidly surrounded many of the structures.

Radar data showed nearly 45dbz in the smoke plume indicating large amounts of ash and objects were being lofted into the air suggesting the fire had developed surrounding inflow winds and strong center updrafts…something only seen in the most intense of wildfires. To give a picture of how quickly the fire evolved attached is a weather station in Gatlinburg which was overrun by the fire. The surface temperature spiked to 118 degrees and the RH fell to 21%...clearly the fire was creating its own weather as other sites nearby were reporting 50-60% RH values. Also note the peak wind gust of 69mph about 2 hours before the site was overrun…showing intense surface winds near the fire line. Note the inside structure temperature was 64.9 degrees…clearly the fire was advancing on the structure at this moment…and this was the last report from this site.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Our local met has mentioned the possible chance of a winter mix with the system this weekend. Doubtful but maybe there's a chance.

[northjaxpro]

Very impressive US Arctic Outbreak on the Euro Ensembles next week...where will the storm develop ????

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... hem_11.png

I'd hedge my money somewhere south. There will probably even be some southeast ridge fighting it but the shallow dome will still force it's way. Which usually spells some kind of ice storm somewhere.

Yes. I agree. It sure looks like a potential major ice storm may be setting up across the Southern Plains going into the Dec. 5 - 8 period.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Dang, the 12z GFS brings the front in around midnight on Thursday morning (next week) and it doesn't get much above 40 all day in North Houston, then it freezes Thursday night and Friday night.

[texas1836]

Dang, the 12z GFS brings the front in around midnight on Thursday morning (next week) and it doesn't get much above 40 all day in North Houston, then it freezes Thursday night and Friday night.

Now all we need is loads of precipitation.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS is showing low temps at day 10 which would blow away the coldest weather we had during all of last winter! Bring it on I'm in the mood for a cold December!

[Brent]

Wow the GFS agrees with the Euro pretty much...

Upper 60s Wednesday the 7th, 30s all day on Thursday the 8th.