Texas Fall 2024

[rwfromkansas]

Jealous of my CO friends and now my NY friends buried in early snow. This is a good time of year for mountain snow.

[Iceresistance]

Jealous of my CO friends and now my NY friends buried in early snow. This is a good time of year for mountain snow.

Yeah, there is a Blizzard Warning in WV right now

[Brent]

Jealous of my CO friends and now my NY friends buried in early snow. This is a good time of year for mountain snow.

Yeah I'm going to Breckenridge before Christmas and I kind of can't wait lol. I've actually never been before

[Stratton23]

the trend has not been our friend today, trend has been for stronger western us ridging to nose in which shifts cold air more off to our east, we want to see something like the CMC/ ICON or JMA solution in which the western US ridge is weaker, allowing for troughing to dig out further west, still 10-11 days out so uncertainty is very high

[DallasAg]

Jealous of my CO friends and now my NY friends buried in early snow. This is a good time of year for mountain snow.

I'm heading to Crested Butte in the morning. Ski season starts Wednesday and we're expecting about 2 feet from the upcoming AR event. It's been a decent (though not exceptional) start to snow season. What's really helped is that it's been consistently cold enough for it to stick around and start building a decent base.

[HockeyTx82]

the trend has not been our friend today, trend has been for stronger western us ridging to nose in which shifts cold air more off to our east, we want to see something like the CMC/ ICON or JMA solution in which the western US ridge is weaker, allowing for troughing to dig out further west, still 10-11 days out so uncertainty is very high

So either my negativity was on to something or like others have said here before, cold air does what is wants. It's very dense and low to the ground. Once it starts rolling downhill the barbwire fence won't stop it.

Lots of swings between now and then. Never hang your hat on long range is what I have learned.

I see you joined in 2023. I've been here since 2009. You will drive yourself nuts taking long range to heart. Fun to dream and look at.

Mother nature does what she wants.

[Stratton23]

HockeyTx82 I only look at long range for pattern recognition, I dont really take the GFS/ Euro seriously beyond 5 days because of the obvious uncertainty, still i think its fun discussing what a model shows even in the long range, strictly for entertainment purposes, still 10 days out so im expecting more changes

[Brent]

I mean I'm not sure it's not just models doing their usual flip flop stuff but it is also still November. Winter hasn't even started yet honestly. There's a reason there's hardly any big snows here before mid December

The ensembles really haven't changed that much either. It's never been an overly impressive snow signal anyway

[HockeyTx82]

HockeyTx82 I only look at long range for pattern recognition, I dont really take the GFS/ Euro seriously beyond 5 days because of the obvious uncertainty, still i think its fun discussing what a model shows even in the long range, strictly for entertainment purposes, still 10 days out so im expecting more changes

Not discouraging your posts. Just putting my two cents into it.

You are fine and your posts drive discussion and learning!

[Cpv17]

I mean I'm not sure it's not just models doing their usual flip flop stuff but it is also still November. Winter hasn't even started yet honestly. There's a reason there's hardly any big snows here before mid December

The ensembles really haven't changed that much either. It's never been an overly impressive snow signal anyway

2 of the 3 times I’ve seen snow down here in my whole life have actually came in early December.

[Brent]

GFS colder again flip flop rain snow mix here next Friday

Dunno why anyone bothers with this model. It changes every run

[Stratton23]

PNA is going towards neutral, now i could be wrong, but thats what I think is not what you want to see if you want cold air funneling into texas

[Cpv17]

PNA is going towards neutral, now i could be wrong, but thats what I think is not what you want to see if you want cold air funneling into texas

Bro, what? A neutral PNA is great for Texas. You should know this by now man lol

[Golfisnteasy7575]

PNA is going towards neutral, now i could be wrong, but thats what I think is not what you want to see if you want cold air funneling into texas

Bro, what? A neutral PNA is great for Texas. You should know this by now man lol

Yep. Either neutral or slightly negative is best

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 i must be dumb, I thought neutral PNA means a central US ridge, negative is a SE ridge, positive is out west, isnt neutral a central US ridge?

[CaptinCrunch]

Slightly negative is the bullseye, neutral is ideal. As for our wonderful models it's the nature of them to be golden on 1 run and garbage on the next.

I only play the model game starting at 5 days out, at that time you're 50/50 if anything happens or not. At 3 days you can start stocking up, and getting your firewood ready. At 24 hrs it's time to make plans to call off work, and 12 hrs out the drinking starts.


Happy Holidays

[Brent]

Slightly negative is the bullseye, neutral is ideal. As for our wonderful models it's the nature of them to be golden on 1 run and garbage on the next.

I only play the model game starting at 5 days out, at that time you're 50/50 if anything happens or not. At 3 days you can start stocking up, and getting your firewood ready. At 24 hrs it's time to make plans to call off work, and 12 hrs out the drinking starts.


Happy Holidays

Yeah the last two winters we've had a snowstorm fall apart in the final 12 hours here so... Use these models with caution it's been ugly

[Stratton23]

00z ICON coming in much colder, seeing some -40’s in west central canada, arctic front entering texas

[Brent]

00z ICON coming in much colder, seeing some -40’s in west central canada, arctic front entering texas

Big snow band over me that's interesting. GFS last run Friday icon Saturday

[TeamPlayersBlue]

MJO is not favorable at all for the beg of Dec. Blocking in parts of the arctic, but we need the MJO to NOT go where its going. We are about to be cooking here in CO, if this pattern plays out.