STORM2K

Reminder all discussion will be moved on September 1st to the Fall thread. Just about a week away .

Had a very brief shower here and now it just feels like a steam bath

Fall cannot be soon enough

Raging tingle in my nethers as we have entered slobber knockin season!

Samuel Adam's Octoberbock, steaks on the grill, NFL football and a sweet down pour that netted 1/2" or better.

Life is good....

1.3" officially in Austin, TX (mabry) today. So "OFFICIALLY" we've made up the entire deficit for the month.

Pretty bad representation of the general area as areas 10 miles E got like .2" lol. Oh well. Cool

In NoTx, it looks like we just need to survive tomorrow and it'll be downhill for the rest of the year.

Haris wrote:1.3" officially in Austin, TX (mabry) today. So "OFFICIALLY" we've made up the entire deficit for the month.

Pretty bad representation of the general area as areas 10 miles E got like .2" lol. Oh well. Cool

It rained here, lightly, but there is no liquid in the gauge, not even a TRACE. I saw it develop to my south and hit the Mabry area. I did see a cool partial rainbow.though and cool orange sky color.

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:In NoTx, it looks like we just need to survive tomorrow and it'll be downhill for the rest of the year.

Today thru Tuesday is going to be HOT, then yes lower 90s maybe upper 80s next weekend.

This morning the humidity is bad with the rain received here Saturday evening, and the shower over night. Its going to feel every bit of 100+ this afternoon.

Euro has whatever Dorian is(i think) threatening the coast in about 8-9 days. It shows some redevelopment in the Gulf it appears. It's very weak though.

The CMC went into Louisiana as a low end hurricane

Brent wrote:Euro has whatever Dorian is(i think) threatening the coast in about 8-9 days. It shows some redevelopment in the Gulf it appears

That energy actually comes from 90L, which does a loop and heads back towards the Texas course. It would actually be a great scenario if the Euro was correct with it being a broad circulation(anything that could tighten up could become a problem.). Of course because it's a large broad circulation I'd be getting even more rain lol.

TheProfessor wrote:

Brent wrote:Euro has whatever Dorian is(i think) threatening the coast in about 8-9 days. It shows some redevelopment in the Gulf it appears

That energy actually comes from 90L, which does a loop and heads back towards the Texas course. It would actually be a great scenario if the Euro was correct with it being a broad circulation(anything that could tighten up could become a problem.). Of course because it's a large broad circulation I'd be getting even more rain lol.

my mistake the timing fit and I didn't even question it but you're right, Dorian goes into FL

Thunderstorm chances will return on Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak cold front moves into North Texas and stalls across the area. Some strong or severe storms are possible, with mainly a wind threat. However, a localized flooding threat could also materialize north of Interstate 20 on Tuesday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler each day due to cloud cover and rain chances.

hopefully tomorrow is the last 100 degree day. I say good riddance

TheProfessor wrote:

Brent wrote:Euro has whatever Dorian is(i think) threatening the coast in about 8-9 days. It shows some redevelopment in the Gulf it appears

That energy actually comes from 90L, which does a loop and heads back towards the Texas course. It would actually be a great scenario if the Euro was correct with it being a broad circulation(anything that could tighten up could become a problem.). Of course because it's a large broad circulation I'd be getting even more rain lol.

Is there any ensemble support for this?

Cpv17 wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:

Brent wrote:Euro has whatever Dorian is(i think) threatening the coast in about 8-9 days. It shows some redevelopment in the Gulf it appears

That energy actually comes from 90L, which does a loop and heads back towards the Texas course. It would actually be a great scenario if the Euro was correct with it being a broad circulation(anything that could tighten up could become a problem.). Of course because it's a large broad circulation I'd be getting even more rain lol.

Is there any ensemble support for this?

Looks like there is solid support on the EPS. The 12z ensembles have a quite a few lows in the Gulf that aren't from Dorian over the next 10 days. Kinda hard to see where they originate from, but seem to come from the energy of 90L

TheProfessor wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:
That energy actually comes from 90L, which does a loop and heads back towards the Texas course. It would actually be a great scenario if the Euro was correct with it being a broad circulation(anything that could tighten up could become a problem.). Of course because it's a large broad circulation I'd be getting even more rain lol.

Is there any ensemble support for this?

Looks like there is solid support on the EPS. The 12z ensembles have a quite a few lows in the Gulf that aren't from Dorian over the next 10 days. Kinda hard to see where they originate from, but seem to come from the energy of 90L

there's been hints of something leftover in the Gulf even before Dorian formed from what I've seen

TheProfessor wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

TheProfessor wrote:
That energy actually comes from 90L, which does a loop and heads back towards the Texas course. It would actually be a great scenario if the Euro was correct with it being a broad circulation(anything that could tighten up could become a problem.). Of course because it's a large broad circulation I'd be getting even more rain lol.

Is there any ensemble support for this?

Looks like there is solid support on the EPS. The 12z ensembles have a quite a few lows in the Gulf that aren't from Dorian over the next 10 days. Kinda hard to see where they originate from, but seem to come from the energy of 90L

Interesting times ahead it seems.

Assuming today is the end of 100's at DFW how many days would that make this summer? Seems we will fall short of average.. which is 18 I believe?

Tejas89 wrote:Assuming today is the end of 100's at DFW how many days would that make this summer? Seems we will fall short of average.. which is 18 I believe?

11 so far and 12 if you assume today will be. That is below average. Now the northeastern quarter of the state has done well limiting 100F days. Cannot say the same for Northwestern, Central, or South Texas. They have had many times more days, double and triple the amount.

Meanwhile here in south central Texas, we are experiencing one of the hottest Augusts on record. TV mets are saying it is ranking at 4th or 5th hottest ever. We'll see when the official NWS data comes out. But the airport is averaging about 3.3 degrees above normal for the mean alone while Camp Mabry (KATT) is at 4.3 above normal. Granted the latter experiences the urban heat island effect but still ... 3-4 degrees above normal for the mean is a lot.

At Camp Mabry, 22 of the 25 days this month have had 100 degrees or higher. At the airport, 17 of 25 days. Today and tomorrow are likely 100+ days at both sites so it'll continue. It's been brutal down here.