STORM2K

InfernoFlameCat wrote:

Shell Mound wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:In my unprofessional opinion, based on the damage I've seen, this will likely be rated a high end EF3 at the minimum. Would not be surprised at all if it gets EF4.

Based on contextual ground scouring, anchoring, debris pile, etc., it’s definitely low-end EF4. The large home was evidently anchored, though the debris did not scatter far. Similar damage was observed during the Estill–Nixville–Fechtig, SC, EF4 tornado on 13 April 2020, which was posthumously upgraded to low-end EF4 status. Damage in Damascus, GA, also looks to be in the low-to-mid EF3 range:
https://twitter.com/WX_ManMike/status/1361684322558820358

Keep in mind that the copious amounts of rainfall that area has received has made the soil much less stable and easier to be manipulated by high winds compared to the much drier plains. In other words, it was easier for the tornado to damage the ground than usual. I expect a rating no greater than a minimal Ef4 (Minimal to devastating tornadoes Ef4-Ef5).

Also I would rate the Damascus twister a mid Ef2

Yeah I wouldn't put it any higher than minimal EF4. My guess is that it will be a prelim EF3 with upgrade to minimal 4 later. As for Damascus, I would probably go with low end EF3

Severe weather no longer expected for Southern Florida today

I wonder why a lone supercell storm produced such an intense vortex so far east in the early morning. A rare event for sure.

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I wonder why a lone supercell storm produced such an intense vortex so far east in the early morning. A rare event for sure.

This happens in Oklahoma too, the conditions became very favorable when that stubborn Supercell went into that area & took advantage of it in those conditions . . .

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I wonder why a lone supercell storm produced such an intense vortex so far east in the early morning. A rare event for sure.

I saw reports last night that people close to the area experienced a 15 degree temp increase shortly before the tornado warnings went up. I saw a discussion on another forum that talked about how the storm must have pulled in heat/moisture from the gulf stream. Otherwise there's not much of an explanation for that big of a temp change at night... Apparently the environment did not support any tornadoes at all before that, let alone a strong/violent one. Shows how quickly things can change...

Weather Dude wrote:

InfernoFlameCat wrote:I wonder why a lone supercell storm produced such an intense vortex so far east in the early morning. A rare event for sure.

I saw reports last night that people close to the area experienced a 15 degree temp increase shortly before the tornado warnings went up. I saw a discussion on another forum that talked about how the storm must have pulled in heat/moisture from the gulf stream. Otherwise there's not much of an explanation for that big of a temp change at night... Apparently the environment did not support any tornadoes at all before that, let alone a strong/violent one. Shows how quickly things can change...

That thing literally controlled the weather to become more favorable for it to produce the tornado?

About what I expected, preliminary, subject to change.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSWilmingto ... 3358778368


With this rating, it is the strongest tornado in NC since April 16, 2011.

Also found an update for the Damascus storm. At least EF2, but they still have a ways to go on the survey
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSTallahass ... 3996488707

160mph Ef3 tornado for the NC supercell. Called it

Slight risk along the Gulf Coast today

65 mph wind gusts
Quarter Sized Hail
Maybe a Tornado

Up to Half Dollar Sized Hail
75 mph wind gusts
Higher Threat of Tornadoes

Tomorrow's Severe Weather Threat

65 mph wind gusts
Maybe a Tornado

75-80 mph wind gusts
Higher Threat of Tornadoes

Not much potential for tornadoes for this one. I would lower risk due to a greater influx of colder air and a smaller contrast in temps between the fronts.

Update on the NC tornado from Monday. Winds upped slightly to at least 165mph/top end EF3. Might get bumped to a minimal EF4 but either way the difference is just a number the damage is the same. Either one looks fine to me.
Here is a write up from NWS Wilmington. It's not final quite yet so there can still be some changes.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSWilmingto ... 6801421318

EDIT: The new official update still lists it as 160mph so the one I posted above was likely a typo because it mentioned 160 earlier in the discussion before it mentioned 165. As of right now it is still preliminary but they mentioned the survey teams are back so I'd imagine the final rating will come out sometime tomorrow.

Severe Weather threat Today (NOTE: This will be pushed further east as the line of storms moves the threat zone with it too)

Marginal

Portions of Panhandle Florida
Southern Georgia
Eastern South Carolina
Southern North Carolina

60 mph wind gusts
maybe a Tornado

Slight

(Same areas for Georgia & Florida as does the Marginal Risk)
Southern South Carolina

65 mph wind gusts
Higher threats of Tornadoes

I see a potential supercell storm in Tifton Georgia. Hook radar developing and an overshooting top on satellite.

Line of supercells along south Georgia. I see three.

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Line of supercells along south Georgia. I see three.

Low-Topped or LPS? National Radar is not picking up much . . .

Iceresistance wrote:

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Line of supercells along south Georgia. I see three.

Low-Topped or LPS? National Radar is not picking up much . . .

Neither, They are Hp supercells. None have any tornado signatures yet however.

There is only one now that I can see. No tornadoes.
They are not very impressive storms.

Mesoscale Discussion #121