Texas Summer-2015

[Ntxw]

if we do get hotter it wont be any lasting heat wave. The threats have been when the NW ridge and SE ridge are transient trying to bridge and we warm up. It has been in a weaker state crossing the southern plains this summer, the same will happen here. Can't rule out 100 but don't be surprised if we miss it either before it cranks in the west again.

[Brent]

FWD sounds kind of encouraging too:


BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT
TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THEREFORE, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
MIGHT START TO SEE SOME OF THE FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES THIS
YEAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT SOME
CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE KEEP WEATHER OUT
OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF TIMING.

[gboudx]

Looks like FWD is using some new graphics on their point forecast, I like them, I wonder what the new snow and sleet graphics will look like?

http://www.weather.gov/forecast-icons

[JDawg512]

EWX is careful to point out that due to the amount of moisture still in the ground, they are hesitant to forecast 100s just yet and I agree. We haven't gotten out of the low 90s, currently only 89 degrees at my house and it's 4:20 pm. It probably will get into the mid 90s by this weekend but it's hard for me at this point to think we will get to 97 or above.

[Ntxw]

None of the big three metros of Texas has yet to officially hit 100.

This week back in 2011 began what was an unrelenting heat wave. DFW Had 30 days of 100+ for the month, the only day that missed was July 1st at 98. It became 40 days in a row of 100+ in what was to become the hottest summer ever EVER as Tireman4 likes to say. Thank goodness nothing is like that on our horizon. It was also the apex of the multi year drought in which the big La Nina made worse of 2010-2011. I can remember all the grass, trees, and shrubs just brown,yellow and dying by July. Looking out my window now, lush green something I see more often on my summer trips to SC/GA.

[weatherdude1108]

One of the tv weather gals here
said that the Colorado River near San Saba is at its highest level in 11 years. All of it headed to Lake Buchanan.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

Colorado River Near near San Saba 8E affecting Lampasas and San Saba
Counties

The Colorado River will continue to rise tonight and thursday along the San
Saba county border. The river is expected to crest around 31.8 feet tomorrow
evening near San Saba. Minor lowland flooding is expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or other media outlets for the
latest information on this situation.


Additional information is available at
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sjt


&&

TXC281-411-091214-
/O.EXT.KSJT.FL.W.0006.150709T2000Z-150710T2043Z/
/SNBT2.1.ER.150709T2000Z.150710T0000Z.150710T0843Z.NO/
414 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
The Colorado River Near near San Saba 8E.
* from Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon.
* At 3:35 PM Wednesday the stage was 2.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and
continue to rise to near 31.8 feet by tomorrow evening.the river
will fall below flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding will occur. Secondary
roads and low water crossings will be flooded.

[Brent]

None of the big three metros of Texas has yet to officially hit 100.

This week back in 2011 began what was an unrelenting heat wave. DFW Had 30 days of 100+ for the month, the only day that missed was July 1st at 98. It became 40 days in a row of 100+ in what was to become the hottest summer ever EVER as Tireman4 likes to say. Thank goodness nothing is like that on our horizon. It was also the apex of the multi year drought in which the big La Nina made worse of 2010-2011. I can remember all the grass, trees, and shrubs just brown,yellow and dying by July. Looking out my window now, lush green something I see more often on my summer trips to SC/GA.

Yeah this summer is reminding me of an Alabama summer(where I've been for the other 26 summers of my life)... frequent rain, and everything that grows is going to town. Like today someone was cutting the grass on this culdesac...

[weatherdude1108]

Lake Buchanan on the local news. It will rise from 5-9 feet by Sunday, which is huge given the large size of the lake. That will still be about 6 feet below the July average, but a nice, needed boost, especially heading into the heart of Texas Summer.

http://kxan.com/2015/07/08/lake-buchana ... this-week/

[Tireman4]

None of the big three metros of Texas has yet to officially hit 100.

This week back in 2011 began what was an unrelenting heat wave. DFW Had 30 days of 100+ for the month, the only day that missed was July 1st at 98. It became 40 days in a row of 100+ in what was to become the hottest summer ever EVER as Tireman4 likes to say. Thank goodness nothing is like that on our horizon. It was also the apex of the multi year drought in which the big La Nina made worse of 2010-2011. I can remember all the grass, trees, and shrubs just brown,yellow and dying by July. Looking out my window now, lush green something I see more often on my summer trips to SC/GA.

Nope Ntxw, Worst. Summer. Ever. LOL.....Porta and I said that so many times. The year that ate Don. The year I just about gave up all that was cool. LOL

[Portastorm]

None of the big three metros of Texas has yet to officially hit 100.

This week back in 2011 began what was an unrelenting heat wave. DFW Had 30 days of 100+ for the month, the only day that missed was July 1st at 98. It became 40 days in a row of 100+ in what was to become the hottest summer ever EVER as Tireman4 likes to say. Thank goodness nothing is like that on our horizon. It was also the apex of the multi year drought in which the big La Nina made worse of 2010-2011. I can remember all the grass, trees, and shrubs just brown,yellow and dying by July. Looking out my window now, lush green something I see more often on my summer trips to SC/GA.

Nope Ntxw, Worst. Summer. Ever. LOL.....Porta and I said that so many times. The year that ate Don. The year I just about gave up all that was cool. LOL

Ugh ... please don't mention 2011. That was the worst. Tireman and I almost died that summer ... while Heat Miser celebrated daily.

[weatherdude1108]

None of the big three metros of Texas has yet to officially hit 100.

This week back in 2011 began what was an unrelenting heat wave. DFW Had 30 days of 100+ for the month, the only day that missed was July 1st at 98. It became 40 days in a row of 100+ in what was to become the hottest summer ever EVER as Tireman4 likes to say. Thank goodness nothing is like that on our horizon. It was also the apex of the multi year drought in which the big La Nina made worse of 2010-2011. I can remember all the grass, trees, and shrubs just brown,yellow and dying by July. Looking out my window now, lush green something I see more often on my summer trips to SC/GA.

Nope Ntxw, Worst. Summer. Ever. LOL.....Porta and I said that so many times. The year that ate Don. The year I just about gave up all that was cool. LOL

Ugh ... please don't mention 2011. That was the worst. Tireman and I almost died that summer ... while Heat Miser celebrated daily.

Oh man! Nightmare Summer! It would be interesting to go back and read the Texas Summer 2011 thread. But I don't know if I want to relive those memories!

[Tireman4]

[q
Ugh ... please don't mention 2011. That was the worst. Tireman and I almost died that summer ... while Heat Miser celebrated daily. [/quote]

Oh man! Nightmare Summer! It would be interesting to go back and read the Texas Summer 2011 thread. But I don't know if I want to relive those memories! [/quote]

It was bad. For the newbies, if you read it..you have to read the Don thread. I have never laughed so hard in my life. I mean, laughing instead of crying.

[lukem]

I will never forget the summer of 2011 in Midland. We had huge grass fires here all spring and summer which had left a ton of ash on the ground. When the heat wave hit, we would get giant black dust devils that would literally extend thousands of feet into the air. I'm on the tenth floor of our building and have a big northern panoramic view. Looking out my window during peak heat resembled a scene from Dante's Inferno!

[Tireman4]

I will never forget the summer of 2011 in Midland. We had huge grass fires here all spring and summer which had left a ton of ash on the ground. When the heat wave hit, we would get giant black dust devils that would literally extend thousands of feet into the air. I'm on the tenth floor of our building and have a big northern panoramic view. Looking out my window during peak heat resembled a scene from Dante's Inferno!

Yep, the forest fires near Pleasantville, Texas...going through it in November to the Texas Renaissance Festival. Surreal. Hey, at least we have wet grounds. That should temper our temperatures this Summer 2015.

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX office is already talking potential fire weather concerns for late July. I was hoping to avoid Death Ridges this year.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 100817
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
317 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POSITIONING OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A DEEP AND STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PARK ITSELF OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS AND MEANDER AROUND THE STATE
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEKEND. EARLIER MODEL RUNS ATTEMPTING TO
ADVERTISE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE ABANDONED
THAT THINKING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE AREA.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND MOISTURE DECREASING
OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING DEL
RIO...WILL BE AT OR PERHAPS JUST ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ASSUMING
SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AS EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE SEEN BY WEDNESDAY.

PWAT VALUES IN THE LONG RANGE GFS BOUNCE AROUND 1 INCH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING GETTING PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WITH POPS ABSENT
FROM THE FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND RH VALUES DECREASING
PROGRESSIVELY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SKEDADDLE...A FOCUS ON HOW
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR
THE LATTER PART OF JULY.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS says the heat will remain in place for a while. And they had this comment re:El Nino:

MUCH HAS BEEN MADE ABOUT THE STRENGTHENING EL NINO AND A
CORRESPONDING LINK TO A CONTINUATION OF OUR WET PATTERN THROUGH
THE WARM SEASON. WITH THE ENSO PHASE OFTEN CHANGING DURING THE
BOREAL SUMMER...THE SAMPLE SIZE OF PREVIOUS SUMMERS WITH A
PERSISTENT WARM PHASE IS SMALL...LIMITING THEIR UTILITY AS
PREDICTORS. REGARDLESS...WHEN EL NINO IS IN PLACE...THE DFW
CLIMATE RECORD...AS WELL AS THAT OF THE NORTH TEXAS REGION AS A
WHOLE...ACTUALLY FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS DURING JULY
AND AUGUST...WHICH ARE ALREADY AMONG THE DRIEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. A NOTED ANALOG TO 2015 IS 1957...AS BOTH YEARS
FEATURED BURGEONING EL NINO CONDITIONS THAT ENDED A MULTI-YEAR
DROUGHT. THROUGH JULY 10...2015 (36.50) AND 1957 (36.46) ARE THE
WETTEST ON RECORD. BUT IN 1957...THERE WERE 20 DAYS WITH TRIPLE-
DIGIT TEMPERATURES IN DFW DURING JULY AND AUGUST...AND LESS THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THAT 2-MONTH PERIOD. THE STRENGTHENING EL
NINO SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES OF A RETURN TO A
PROTRACTED DROUGHT...BUT THE WET WEATHER MAY BE ON HOLD UNTIL THE
UPCOMING AUTUMN.

[weatherdude1108]

DFW NWS says the heat will remain in place for a while. And they had this comment re:El Nino:

MUCH HAS BEEN MADE ABOUT THE STRENGTHENING EL NINO AND A
CORRESPONDING LINK TO A CONTINUATION OF OUR WET PATTERN THROUGH
THE WARM SEASON. WITH THE ENSO PHASE OFTEN CHANGING DURING THE
BOREAL SUMMER...THE SAMPLE SIZE OF PREVIOUS SUMMERS WITH A
PERSISTENT WARM PHASE IS SMALL...LIMITING THEIR UTILITY AS
PREDICTORS. REGARDLESS...WHEN EL NINO IS IN PLACE...THE DFW
CLIMATE RECORD...AS WELL AS THAT OF THE NORTH TEXAS REGION AS A
WHOLE...ACTUALLY FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS DURING JULY
AND AUGUST...WHICH ARE ALREADY AMONG THE DRIEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. A NOTED ANALOG TO 2015 IS 1957...AS BOTH YEARS
FEATURED BURGEONING EL NINO CONDITIONS THAT ENDED A MULTI-YEAR
DROUGHT. THROUGH JULY 10...2015 (36.50) AND 1957 (36.46) ARE THE
WETTEST ON RECORD. BUT IN 1957...THERE WERE 20 DAYS WITH TRIPLE-
DIGIT TEMPERATURES IN DFW DURING JULY AND AUGUST...AND LESS THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THAT 2-MONTH PERIOD. THE STRENGTHENING EL
NINO SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES OF A RETURN TO A
PROTRACTED DROUGHT...BUT THE WET WEATHER MAY BE ON HOLD UNTIL THE
UPCOMING AUTUMN.

Interesting! Thanks for sharing that.

[DonWrk]

Depressing....

[Ntxw]

That's some neat analog information with the Nino by NWS kudos. 1957 was one of the rare big Nino's with many days of 100+. It is not a good 500mb analog using what has occured this July and what is expected from guidance. July/August of that year actually featured a NW Pacific ridge akin more to -PDO, the warm waters now will not support that kind of pattern. 500mb ridge is planted in the same region that 1957 had a trough. So it is actually the complete opposite pattern of that July.

While agreed July/August can often times be drier than normal, it does not necessarily mean hotter than normal. Remember to lowest 100+ count years occur majority in El Nino, the massive ones even less. I am fairly confident we are not going to see 20+ days of 100, heck lucky to see 5. 1982, 1997, and some years in the early 1900s are also good analogs not just 1957.



The pattern next week does favor flexing of the Western ridge, the question is will we linger 97-99 and miss 100? or enough UMPH to get there before cooling pattern arrives.

[JDawg512]

Yea there doesn't seem to be anything significant in the mid range models either. I wasn't expecting much rain this month but was hoping of getting around average. If there's nothing showing up in the extended models by the 15th then it's gonna suck!