November 17 Severe Weather & Tornado Outbreak

[RL3AO]

https://twitter.com/SchuermanWxWHAG/sta ... 48/photo/1

From WEEK-TV

[EF-5bigj]

Wow that type of destruction is well...no words for that.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IL...FAR SERN MO...FAR WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 563...

VALID 171905Z - 172000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 563 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE
SHORT-TERM WITH CONVECTION APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAS
ADVANCED OFF THE INITIATING BOUNDARY /PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ INTO A
MODEST-WIDTH WARM SECTOR FEATURING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. INTENSE
PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 6 MB PER 2 HOURS IN CNTRL IL ARE DRIVING AN
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE THAT ENCOURAGES ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD TRANSPORT
OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE OHIO RIVER -- DEWPOINTS AROUND
64-67F -- SUPPORTING LOW LCL/S AMIDST THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.
SUBSIDING BRANCHES OF WAVE-LIKE STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS FIELD IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE CONVECTION ARE SUPPORTING
AREAS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOLSTER BUOYANCY WHILE ALSO REFLECTING
THE PARTICULARLY INTENSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. PAH VWP DATA
INDICATE A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR TORNADOGENESIS WITH 0-1-KM SRH
AOA 500 M2/S2 AND AROUND 80 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR LARGELY
ORTHOGONAL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH AT LEAST MODEST SPATIAL DISPLACEMENTS FROM OTHER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN THE
SHORT TERM AS THEY APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER.

..COHEN.. 11/17/2013


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36739047 37278958 38508846 38008812 37148864 36598929
36479012 36739047

[Portastorm]

Wow that type of destruction is well...no words for that.

Yeah, there are a lot of photos coming in now from Illinois (Washington, Peoria) of tornado damage and it looks like complete devastation ... so sad.

[psyclone]

Holy cow, that high risk is really close to me. Any thoughts on the areas east of the current high risk area?

Stay safe everyone.

Per the SPC outlook the TOR risk tapers fairly quickly from west to east across Ohio but the damaging wind threat does not. your SVR risk is significant(that could include tornadoes although the risk is likely quite a bit higher to the west the advertised TOR risk in the Columbus metro is not insignificant). A moderate risk is not to be taken lightly.

[EF-5bigj]

TWC has been showing photos there is next to nothing left from what I can see

[RL3AO]

Looks like Moore/Joplin type damage in Washington.

[EF-5bigj]

Sadly it looks all to similar you can see slabs in that pic.

[Bunkertor]

Bears game will resume in 50 minutes.

wendysnyder ‏@wendysnyder 1m
Mother Nature getting more touchdowns than the @ChicagoBears #tornado chicago

writes a Twitterer...

[CrazyC83]

Well, maybe not quite Joplin, but close to Moore levels. Looks like an EF-4 to my naked eye.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL...IND...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 561...562...564...

VALID 171913Z - 172030Z

CORRECTED FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
561...562...564...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...SOME OF
WHICH SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT...WILL EVOLVE FROM IL INTO IND AND LOWER
MI THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF AN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS
CONSOLIDATED INTO A QLCS FROM SRN LK MI INTO E-CNTRL IL. WITH AN
IMPRESSIVELY LARGE SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET NOTED ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY TO MIDWEST...TENDENCY FOR FAST-MOVING LINEAR
ORGANIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NRN IND AND LOWER MI. EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TORNADOES WHILE
EXTENSIVE SWATHS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
ATTENDANT TO THE QLCS AS AN 986 MB SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SERN WI
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.

FARTHER S...TENDENCY FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR
PROBABLE FOR CONVECTION EMANATING NEWD OUT OF SRN IL. ALTHOUGH
DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR NOTED IN KVWX VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS CONVECTION REMAINS COINCIDENT WITHIN A
PLUME OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS.

..GRAMS.. 11/17/2013


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...
ILX...

LAT...LON 44528595 44528470 44118430 43138440 39638542 38508650
38168746 38138787 38238832 38638834 40298780 42508673
44528595

[RL3AO]

Reports of damage in Manhattan, IL

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... 8a53f9ce9b

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA...CNTRL KY...NRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171934Z - 172030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO.

DISCUSSION...THE WARM SECTOR OF A POWERFUL DEEP CYCLONE WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF TORNADO WATCH 563 AFTER 21Z...WITH STRONG DEEP ASCENT
FORECAST TO SUSTAIN THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
ARE STUNTING BUOYANCY AT PRESENT -- AS SAMPLED BY THE 19Z BNA
SOUNDING -- LARGE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSES ACCOMPANYING THE SFC CYCLONE
TO THE N WILL DRIVE AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL BUOYANCY
ACROSS THE MCD AREA IN ADVANCE OF A CONSOLIDATING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
STRONG WIND PROFILES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AS SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP
DATA -- E.G. 0-1-KM AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOA 40 KT AND
AOA 60 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG
WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH EVOLVING LEWP STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
QLCS/S...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN STRENGTHENING WAA IN ADVANCE OF MORE LINEARLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 11/17/2013


ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON 36028608 35798782 36248790 36948708 37738687 38648628
38788436 38128410 36938466 36028608

[CrazyC83]

IMO, at 2000Z, the categories should be shifted south. Michigan should be pulled from the high risk, but more of Kentucky added, and the moderate extended through Tennessee into Mississippi.

[CrazyC83]

WFUS53 KIND 171944
TORIND
INC083-172015-
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0021.131117T1944Z-131117T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EST

* AT 239 PM EST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MOUNT CARMEL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VINCENNES...DECKER...VINCENNES UNIVERSITY...MONROE CITY...
BRUCEVILLE...OAKTOWN...WHEATLAND...BICKNELL...FREELANDVILLE AND
EDWARDSPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 8765 3855 8767 3864 8763 3869 8753
3874 8751 3889 8755 3890 8725 3873 8725
3873 8726 3869 8728 3868 8725 3853 8725
3851 8731 3854 8736 3851 8738 3854 8740
3853 8746 3846 8759 3844 8774 3846 8776
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 244DEG 62KT 3854 8784

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

KOCH

[CrazyC83]

Probs a conservative 40/30.

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 561...WW 562...WW
563...WW 564...

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS ONGOING NEAR THE OH RIVER ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...MEAD

[Bunkertor]

CNN put on a special coverage ( sry if it had been already posted )

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 172002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
IL...INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...AND WRN OH...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK OVER
CENTRAL AND SRN LOWER MI...SERN IL...MUCH OF KY...CENTRAL AND ERN
OH...AND WRN PARTS OF NY...PA...AND WV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY...

SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO IS EVOLVING AS PREDICTED EARLIER WITH A
PRIMARY BAND OF SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM WRN LOWER MI SWD TOWARD
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FEATURED SEVERAL LONG-LIVED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL IL...WITH OTHER MORE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL. THE CONVECTIVE MODE
APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH
EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/LEWPS...WHICH MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTEX
DEVELOPMENT...AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/ SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
/INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS/ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...AND OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS THE SEVERE QLCS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD IN RESPONSE
TO A 100+ KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY.

AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD TONIGHT...IT WILL GRADUALLY
ENCOUNTER A LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS/STABILIZES AFTER DARK. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS IMMEDIATELY
ABOVE THE GROUND INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OR MORE RAPIDLY MOVING
LOW-TOPPED QLCS/S.

..WEISS.. 11/17/2013

[ravyrn]

What's the program called that allows you to go to different radar sites and zoom in to check out the storm velocity? I used to have it but forgot to save it when I formatted and forget it's name now.

Can someone please give me a close up velocity of the two cells heading into Paducah, KY?

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 172005Z - 172130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM OF WW 562 IS EXPECTED BY
2130Z AS A QLCS RACES EWD FROM IND. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
WITH A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT 55-60 KT MOVEMENT OF A QLCS AND SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN IND EXTRAPOLATES TO A 2230-2300Z TIMING AT THE
ERN EDGE OF WW 562. WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA DRIVEN RAINFALL HAVE YIELDED NEGLIGIBLE BUOYANCY PER
19Z ILN RAOB...A LARGE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING A POWERFUL
CYCLONE OVER LK MI SHOULD RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL
BUOYANCY INTO OH BY EARLY EVENING. ALREADY STRONG WIND PROFILES WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 11/17/2013


ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...

LAT...LON 41738357 42118096 41818037 40558065 39248185 38618291
38608340 38858378 39118393 40028389 41738357