a Lite Mix for Ticka and VB ?

[wrkh99]

Southeast Texas forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
250 am CST Friday Feb 7 2003


Canadian surface high continues to build south tonight across the
southern plains. Associated cold air advection occurring across southeast
Texas tonight. Cloudy skies continue over the region with a low deck
between 1k and 2k feet. Windy conditions along the coast with gls
reporting sustained winds near 25 miles per hour and gusts over 30 miles per hour. Patchy
light rain will continue to move northeast across the central and
southern zones.


Main forecast issues are probability of precipitation and precipitation type tonight and early
Saturday. Have trended pop forecast toward AVN model...but not quite
as high as these numbers due to the fact that most precipitation today
should be very light...so am unsure as to how much will actually be
measurable. Will taper from north to S due to available moisture. Better
chance of precipitation tonight as a disturbance moves across the region.
After examining model soundings and thicknesses (primarily from the
mesoeta) believe that the northwest and north zones could definitely see a
wintry mix of precipitation tonight and early on Sat. Any precipitation across
this area should be light...so no accumulation is expected. Further
south...think the most likely form of precipitation will be rain. So no
real changes to the ongoing forecast except to bump probability of precipitation up a little
tonight.


Low temperatures tonight will be tricky...because clouds and winds would
suggest that only cooling will come from advection...however some
evaporative cooling is likely to occur as light precipitation begins to
fall through a dry layer near the surface. See no reason to change from
the consensus of the guidance which puts freezing temperatures across the
northern zones. Do not expect temperatures to rise today. Expect
near steady or slightly falling temperatures due to strong cold air advection and
lack of any sun.


Will continue Wind Advisory for the coastal zones through noon today
as expect sustained winds near 25 miles per hour along the coast early today.
Winds will gradually decrease during the early afternoon
hours.


For extended...will raise probability of precipitation slightly on Sunday as another
disturbance moves across the region. Should see a break Monday and Tuesday
with a slight chance back in the forecast on Wednesday. Will also see a
warmup early next week.


For marine area...will continue Small Craft Advisory areawide as winds and seas will
be up today.


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