Finally some rain after dry January

[Rainband]

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
315 PM EST Thursday Feb 6 2003


A rather gloomy forecast period upcoming...especially from Tampa Bay north.
The gloom will be in the form of plenty of clouds and periods of
rain...along with a cool down just in time for the weekend. The
gray pattern is courtesy of a steady state subtropical jet over or
just north of the area...separating tropical air from the Keys through
the Caribbean and polar air over the southeast U.S.


Models are in better agreement this time around...though GFS still
appears to be too wet early on given sheared nature of each short
wave and current radar trends which have backed off a bit across the
Panhandle. That said...ETA model has trended a bit farther S...so will
blend. The other difference is front timing Friday...with the ETA model
about 2-3 hour slower. This solution looks better given movement
during maximum heating which tends to slow down surface cooling...and
continued west-southwest flow from 850 mb and above.


Short term (tonight - sun):
winds are gradually veering toward the S and SW...and once this flow
becomes established over the eastern Gulf expect sea/advection fog
to develop and spread inland. Looks to be a tough commute Friday
morning...in two areas: north of Tampa Bay where overnight rains will
enhance the inland fog...and along/near the coast just about
everywhere as the fog rolls in. Will issue an special weather statement to cover the
threat by 4 PM.


Otherwise...will bump precipitation chances a category central and north. Expect
a sharp gradient from Levy to lee...and will handle this in zone
groupings. Dewpoints have recovered rapidly as expected...and should
continue to rise prior to the SW flow arriving overnight.


Fog will continue to be a nuisance during the morning...and
probably for a good part of the day along the coast from Tampa Bay
S. North of Tampa Bay...frontal passage should allow some dissipation.
Temperatures will cool a bit across the nature coast...but should remain
rather warm and humid elsewhere...away from the coast.


Precipitation will end for a time Friday night/Sat...but clouds will remain as
thick layer of moisture hangs tough from 850-700 mb. By late Sat...
isentropic lift and 250 mb jet energy get into the act up north...so
will reintroduce rain chance. Rain looks likely in at least Levy
Colorado Sat night...perhaps drifting S through early sun. Temperatures behind
the front will show less diurnal range given clouds...but daytime
temperatures central/north will once again be some 5-10 degree below normal.


Extended outlook (mon - thur):
next significant short wave to dive into the plains states on Sunday
night...helping to carve out a deeper long wave trough over the
eastern third of the U.S. Energy remains well north of the area...
but models consistent in dragging persistent moisture field through
and south of the area with high pressure building in by late Monday.
Would not be surprised if this frontal passage is a bit overdone
given upper energy orientation...but this far out will keep current
Post-Monday forecast with a drying trend. Regardless...another
short wave is right on the heels of monday's and this should
shunt axis far enough south for dry forecast for the rest of the
period.


Marine: winds still gusting nicely in the southeast gradient well
offshore...but over cooler waters within the forecast area have dropped
considerably (5-10 kt). Expect a pickup from the SW later tonight...
but well under model values given entrenched marine layer of 50s
temperatures. Behind front...cold air advection could be just enough for caution Friday
night/early Sat...but will hold just below for now and evaluate
later data.


Fire wx: dewpoints have risen sufficiently and will remain so through
Friday. Dry air will filter across the North County warning forecast area by Sat...and will have
to evaluate watch/warning situation then.




Preliminary numbers:


Bkv 062/071 049/061 6402
tpa 063/073 052/063 44-1
gif 064/076 052/063 4411
srq 063/073 054/066 2411
fmy 065/080 059/072 0211


Tbw...none.


Bsg/jtd

[Amanzi]

I will second that one Rainband...been very very dry here, my irrigation is running over time. Hope we get a good soaking tonight and tomorrow morning.

[chadtm80]

wooooooooo hooooooooooo. bring it on. I got a lil bit the other day. but not squat in january

[Amanzi]

I know Chad you should see my plants...they look awful, I have lost a lot of stock too because of the cold. You cant run the irrigation and then it freezes, makes more trouble for the poor things to survive. I really hope it gives us a good soaking. I heard on TV this has been one of the direst January's on record...No rain since Jan 1st.

[chadtm80]

Its getting closer.. hehehe
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.ktlh.shtml

[chadtm80]

ITS 1:30am Amanzi and it looks like the rain is just about over you

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

You guys had a pretty dry month for Jan from the middle of the state north. Even though its known as a little drier during these months, I think you guys will see a nice pick up in action midmonth for Feb....not to mention more cold!