MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND PORTIONS OF W AND SW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 222041Z - 222215Z
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OVER SERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF W AND SW TX. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CU FIELD WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
MODERATE CU BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER FAR ERN NM /JUST W OF
TCC AND CVS/ AND SEWD INTO WRN TX NORTH OF MAF TO SJT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THE TX MESONET BETWEEN LBB-MAF INDICATE A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THIS CU FIELD. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CU/TCU ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO AROUND FST
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE. SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHERE CLEAR SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID
80S... RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE DRY LINE
FROM ERN NM TO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF SWRN TX WHERE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS...AS ADDITIONAL HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. AS DEVELOPING CONVECTION MOVES EWD OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.... SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PER AREA PROFILERS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
MOST STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL QUICKLY
BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE EWD ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...
WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. MEANWHILE...HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
FURTHER SWWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS.