SPC Convecctive outlook for today
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STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ENE CRE 20 S SOP 10 SE PSK 20 NNE EKN 15 NNE AOO 20 SSE IPT AVP
35 SSW MSV 10 WSW EWR 10 E NEL.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE DAB SRQ ...CONT... 30 SSW CTY 35 NNE SSI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DUG 25 E DUG
20 SSE SAD 10 NNE SOW 60 WNW GUP 25 S CEZ 30 ESE DRO 45 WNW RTN
10 NW CAO 40 ESE DHT 40 NE PVW 35 NNE JCT 15 SE CRP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN 40 NW ABY
40 N AGS 20 W HSS 30 SW 5I3 HTS 10 SSW LUK 20 WSW FWA MKG
50 SW HTL 40 NE FNT 50 NE MTC ...CONT... 35 ENE ROC 25 WNW ALB
25 NE EWB.
...SYNOPSIS...
DYNAMIC PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH
STRONG UPPER JET REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...COMPACT CLOSED LOW
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE
STRENGTHENING OVER WEST TX...AND POWERFUL EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
IMPINGING UPON THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
LARGE CNTRL U.S. CYCLONE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WAS IN THE FORM
OF AN ACCELERATING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE OH VALLEY EARLY
TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT RAPIDLY ENEWD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG VORTEX MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.
...DELMARVA/PA/NJ...
RESIDUAL WEDGE OF COOL/STABLE AIR PERSISTS IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING FROM PA SWD INTO NC. THE ERN EDGE OF THIS
AIRMASS HAS BEEN ERODING SLOWLY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
AND 60S F DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS ERN VA INTO ERN NJ. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MIXING
SHOULD STEEPEN LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 500-1500
J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON.
AS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CREST THE
APPALACHIANS AROUND 18Z...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY EWD INTO STRONGER
INSTABILITY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH 21Z.
STRENGTHENING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN LEE
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 50-60KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS BUT LINEAR FORCING AND
PREDOMINATELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...SOME LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO INSTABILITY CURRENTLY PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO MDT
RISK ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...IF GREATER INSTABILITY DOES
APPEAR LIKELY...A MDT RISK MAY BE NEEDED.
THREAT OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL FROM STORMS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE
COOLER/MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER COULD EXTEND FROM NJ EWD ACROSS THE
NYC AREA BY EVENING AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND FORCING WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
...NRN/CNTRL FL...
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY FAST WSWLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AID PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER NRN AND CNTRL FL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KT AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
...NM/WEST TX...
EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
AND MIDLEVEL COLD POOL MOVING SEWD FROM UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES DEVELOP AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S.
HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE RESULTS IN MEAGER MU/MLCAPE VALUES AOB
500 J/KG. WHILE AN ISOLD STRONG DOWNBURST COULD RESULT...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL SHEAR PRECLUDE
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 03/21/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ENE CRE 20 S SOP 10 SE PSK 20 NNE EKN 15 NNE AOO 20 SSE IPT AVP
35 SSW MSV 10 WSW EWR 10 E NEL.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE DAB SRQ ...CONT... 30 SSW CTY 35 NNE SSI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DUG 25 E DUG
20 SSE SAD 10 NNE SOW 60 WNW GUP 25 S CEZ 30 ESE DRO 45 WNW RTN
10 NW CAO 40 ESE DHT 40 NE PVW 35 NNE JCT 15 SE CRP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN 40 NW ABY
40 N AGS 20 W HSS 30 SW 5I3 HTS 10 SSW LUK 20 WSW FWA MKG
50 SW HTL 40 NE FNT 50 NE MTC ...CONT... 35 ENE ROC 25 WNW ALB
25 NE EWB.
...SYNOPSIS...
DYNAMIC PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH
STRONG UPPER JET REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...COMPACT CLOSED LOW
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE
STRENGTHENING OVER WEST TX...AND POWERFUL EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
IMPINGING UPON THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
LARGE CNTRL U.S. CYCLONE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WAS IN THE FORM
OF AN ACCELERATING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE OH VALLEY EARLY
TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT RAPIDLY ENEWD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG VORTEX MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.
...DELMARVA/PA/NJ...
RESIDUAL WEDGE OF COOL/STABLE AIR PERSISTS IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING FROM PA SWD INTO NC. THE ERN EDGE OF THIS
AIRMASS HAS BEEN ERODING SLOWLY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
AND 60S F DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS ERN VA INTO ERN NJ. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MIXING
SHOULD STEEPEN LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 500-1500
J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON.
AS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CREST THE
APPALACHIANS AROUND 18Z...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY EWD INTO STRONGER
INSTABILITY CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH 21Z.
STRENGTHENING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN LEE
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 50-60KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS BUT LINEAR FORCING AND
PREDOMINATELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...SOME LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO INSTABILITY CURRENTLY PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO MDT
RISK ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...IF GREATER INSTABILITY DOES
APPEAR LIKELY...A MDT RISK MAY BE NEEDED.
THREAT OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL FROM STORMS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE
COOLER/MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER COULD EXTEND FROM NJ EWD ACROSS THE
NYC AREA BY EVENING AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND FORCING WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
...NRN/CNTRL FL...
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY FAST WSWLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AID PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER NRN AND CNTRL FL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KT AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
...NM/WEST TX...
EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
AND MIDLEVEL COLD POOL MOVING SEWD FROM UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES DEVELOP AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S.
HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE RESULTS IN MEAGER MU/MLCAPE VALUES AOB
500 J/KG. WHILE AN ISOLD STRONG DOWNBURST COULD RESULT...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL SHEAR PRECLUDE
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 03/21/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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