Training Storms have begun in NC
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Training Storms have begun in NC
West of raleigh the storms have formed and are training from sw to ne!! More forming to the south could cause very heavy rains! SC has received inches and places in NC are beginning to exceed an INch. Stay safe nc'ers!
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Stormsfury
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southerngale
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ColdFront77
Thunderstorms certainly have developed in and around the Florida panhandle in the last two to four hours. A Tornado Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch, both in effect until 5:00 AM EST for the Florida panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia and for northern Georgia through northern and central South Carolina, respectively.
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Stormsfury
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There's another s/w progged to swing thru that area overnight/Friday (resulting in the slight risk tomorrow). I haven't checked the models todayand actually I laid down and fell asleep for a hour and a half.
Here's Raleigh's AFD ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003
WILL LET FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 4 PM.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HANDLE POORLY THE DAMMING OCCURRING OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WARM
FRONT/COASTAL FRONT ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-95. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS HENDERSON-BUY-ROCKINGHAM BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THEN STALL. THE TRIAD REGION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE DAMMING/PIEDMONT AIRMASS UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS
MID DAY FRI. THUS PLAN TO UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS BY A CATEGORY (IF NOT
TWO) IN THE NW PIEDMONT. THE PIEDMONT AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BECOME
VERY SHALLOW BY FRI MORNING...THUS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY BUT MAY HEADLINE
OR MENTION ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED IN FORECAST TEXT.
LOW LEVEL MODEL CONVERGENCE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FRI AFTERNOON BUT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE APPROACHING 7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDICES IN THE
SLIGHT TO MODERATE INSTABILITY RANGE SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR FRI AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE GREATEST OVER COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AND LEAST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. PLAN TO TAPER POPS FRI FROM SLIGHT CHC/SMALL CHC
WEST TO HIGH CHC OR LOW LIKELY COASTAL PLAIN. ETA MODEL MORE ROBUST
WITH THE UPPER JET STRENGTH COMPARED TO GFS/NGM. IF ETA DOES VERIFY
MORE CORRECTLY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY BE
REALIZED FOR EAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
WILL LEAN TOWARD MAV HIGH TEMPS FRI AS NGM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
APPEAR TOO WARM.
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL DRY OUT LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE
ANTICIPATED FOR SUN. MAY SEE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUN
DUE TO FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
Here's Raleigh's AFD ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003
WILL LET FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 4 PM.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HANDLE POORLY THE DAMMING OCCURRING OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WARM
FRONT/COASTAL FRONT ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-95. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS HENDERSON-BUY-ROCKINGHAM BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THEN STALL. THE TRIAD REGION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE DAMMING/PIEDMONT AIRMASS UNTIL THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS
MID DAY FRI. THUS PLAN TO UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS BY A CATEGORY (IF NOT
TWO) IN THE NW PIEDMONT. THE PIEDMONT AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BECOME
VERY SHALLOW BY FRI MORNING...THUS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY BUT MAY HEADLINE
OR MENTION ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED IN FORECAST TEXT.
LOW LEVEL MODEL CONVERGENCE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE FRI AFTERNOON BUT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE APPROACHING 7 C/KM AND LIFTED INDICES IN THE
SLIGHT TO MODERATE INSTABILITY RANGE SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR FRI AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE GREATEST OVER COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AND LEAST IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. PLAN TO TAPER POPS FRI FROM SLIGHT CHC/SMALL CHC
WEST TO HIGH CHC OR LOW LIKELY COASTAL PLAIN. ETA MODEL MORE ROBUST
WITH THE UPPER JET STRENGTH COMPARED TO GFS/NGM. IF ETA DOES VERIFY
MORE CORRECTLY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY BE
REALIZED FOR EAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
WILL LEAN TOWARD MAV HIGH TEMPS FRI AS NGM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
APPEAR TOO WARM.
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL DRY OUT LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE
ANTICIPATED FOR SUN. MAY SEE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUN
DUE TO FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
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What a wet mess. Heavy rain and thunderstorms begain on Wednsday and lasted till Thursday late morning. Got to get use to thunderstorm activity with the air temp of only 45 degrees. Never had to experiance that in Florida!!! But on the lighter side driving to work here in Winston Salem was easy since I have "experiance" in heavy rainfall. Seems some up here have not a clue on how to drive during a downpour. Ironic that I come up here to NC from Florida and there is actually some type of weather that I have experiance in driving in!!!! Now the snow, sleet and ice well that is a different story.
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