Beginning to get active over WRN OH valley...

[USAwx1]

As convection is increasing along LLVL boundary in assoscilation with intensifying isentropic lift along baroclinic zone running across Central IL, through IN and into extreme SRN OH.

Boundary LYR moisture is plentyful south of the Low level boundary w/ SFC dewpoints reaching in the 66-70F range over MUCH of IN, Central and SRN IL, and SW OH, contributing to SB CAPE values of between 2000-3000 J/kg beneath a tounge of mid level lapse rates of near 7.0 DEG C/km extending from central IL into SW OH at 18z.

the PRIMARY threat from thunderstorms which form in this region this Afternoon will be Large hail and wind damage.

Although NCAPES are rather weak over the region (< 0.2 in most places) suggesting a thin CAPE profile, VERY strong vertical shear in the LOWEST 6 KM of 45-60 KT across Central and SRN IL, IN, and SW OH, combined with rather strong instability --- will support vigorous and sustained convective updrafts, suggesting thunderstorms will have the potential to produce large hail and ESPECIALLY wind damage.

A few Supercells cannot be ruled out either given strong deep layer vertical shear, and moist boundary layer.