SEVERE WX WATCH

[WXBUFFJIM]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INDIANA
LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF MEIGS FIELD
ILLINOIS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT SHIFTING NWD THRU SRN LWR MI AS MCV ALG
IL/WI BORDER MOVES EWD 30KT. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS VERY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CAP. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AHEAD OF MCV AND VICINITY WARM FRONT. VEERING
SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HALES