Active this Weekend in the Plains?

[Guest]

[yoda]

Geez... why not include all of the US in the Severe Storms Risk. We shall see....

[wx247]

I agree... setup is looking great for some severe weather outbreaks over the next 5 days. (When I say great I mean that in the positive use of the word... not the awesome use of it.)

[ssom04]

it should be about time it gets active in the plains....it probably won't even happen though

[Brett Adair]

Well here is my take on this situation. I think the HPC and SPC are getting keyed in for this activity next week. The first system that kicks out will be one to cause severe weather over the southern and central plains over teh weekend and possibly advance into the lower Mississippi Valley. The GFS has been rather consistent with it and the ECMWF is starting to back it up. I can't wait until they get into ETA range because then we should have a much better handle on the situation. This lead system will more than likely lift out as a negative tilt and lift up into the midwest. Most of the main dynamics from this one will likely pass north of my area. The secondary one would be the system that looks more powerful and dug out to me. That one would stay more to the south, so several waves of severe weather look to be in order in the plains. Much of the Lower MS valley and the plains should watch this with caution over the next several days...

[wx247]

Here is the SPC's outlook for tomorrow. It look like that is when the action begins. Best shot tomorrow looks to be across the southern portions of the slight risk area IMHO. They will have more instability to work with.

[stu]

Notice how the SPC have backed off the day 2 out look? this IMO is due to the model over forecasting the dewpoints ascross the area. I am still waiting for the gulf to recover and ATM DP's of upper 50's are all that I can find - I just can not see how we are going to advect the DP's north when the gulf is shut down...

Just my 2 pence (cents) worth

[ssom04]

as we get closer to the weekend it is getting better and better but on sunday we might have trouble getting daytime heating if we get storms on saturday night too. But I'm getting packed and ready to go on my first chasing trip of 2004 WISH ME LUCK AND EVERYONE ELSE PLANNING ON HEADING OUT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO CATCH UP WITH SOME STORMS!!!

[ssom04]

also....my first chance of severe weather will push into the southern part of minnesota Sunday on the leading edge of some warm and humid air. It seems strange talking about humidity especially after it's been so dry, but strong south winds will open up the Gulf of Mexico late Saturday mixing together perfect ingredients for some big storms from eastern Nebraska, across Iowa, and into [b]southern Minnesota. [/b]Stay tuned for the latest forecast!

[Guest]

154
FLUS43 KOAX 152227
HWOOAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 PM CDT THU APR 15 2004

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-161100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
526 PM CDT THU APR 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY NEAR A WARM FRONT FORECAST TO DEVELOP CLOSE
TO THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER COULD BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
EXACT POSITION OF THIS FRONT AND OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO IT WILL BE FURTHER ASSESSED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

A STRONGER FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AT THAT TIME...AND THE STRONGER NATURE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE THAT STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT IS TOO EARLY TO FORECAST THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

$$

[Brett Adair]

This could be a great Iowa bust-o. I have seen this many times.....where indicies are so great and the SFC boundary is so weak and the CAP is too strong to be broken. It is going to take a massive cold pool and some steepe lapse rates to give a descent severe threat out there. If the CAP does happen to break....all hell will break loose out there. If models do verify on it....we could be looking at some strong tornadoes for southern Iowa.

[Guest]

593
FLUS43 KGID 161736
HWOGID

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-171200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH THE EXTREME
CATEGORY OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA
BORDER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG A TRAILING DRYLINE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD POSE A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ON SUNDAY...INTENSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE SURGE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 WILL LIKELY
SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS WEEKEND. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHER INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED
FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

[wx247]

Looks like a busy weekend in NE and IA.

[Guest]

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
230 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WAVY SURFACE BOUNDARY ALG SRN EDGE
OF MID LAT WESTERLIES POSING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TEMPS THIS AFTN
AND ESP SO AGAIN SAT AFTN. IN ADDITION...LL MSTR WEDGE ALTHOUGH
SHALLOW CONTS TO ADVT NWD IN ASSOCN/W DEEPENING WRN TROF AND
INCREASINGLY BACKED LL SRLY FLOW. ATTM MORE AGGRESSIVE LL MSTR RTN
OF ETA LOOKS SUSPECT GIVEN ANOMALOUS UPR TROF OVR ERN GOMEX BUT
PERHAPS NOT TOO FAR OFF GIVEN RTN TAKING PLACE OVR WRN GOMEX INTO
FAR S TX THIS AFTN. BIGGEST SHRT TERM CONCERN IS IMPENDING LANDFALL
OF STG SW TROF OFF CA COAST AND SUBSEQUENT EJECTION OUT ACRS THE
CNTRL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. TREND TWD FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF
WRN/CNTRL US HGTS AND BACKING PLACEMENT OF LL MSTR AXIS YIELDING
INCREASING CHCS OF STORMS PARTICULARLY LT SAT AFTN AND EVENING INVOF
DRYLINE AND ALG EWD ORIENTED WARM FRONT NR KS/NE BORDER. LG SCALE
ASCENT AND QUITE STG LL THETA PUSH N OF INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR CONV INITIATION EITHER LT SAT AFTN OR MORE LIKELY
EARLY EVENING. DEPTH AND QUALITY OF MSTR RTN STILL SUSPECT AND WILL
NEED TO BE RECONCILED W/LTR SNDG DATA DOWN SOUTH. BUT AS IT STANDS
SVR NOT OUT OF THE QN. TEMPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SHLD SOAR ESP
FAR SW WHERE 90 POSSIBLE.

ON SUN...DEEP MID LAT CYCLONE TO TRACK ACRS NE. STRONG DEEP LYR
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH EMERGING UPR TROF IN TANDEM W/POSITION OF LL
THERMAL RIDGE WILL AIDE DVLPG DRYLINE SURGE BY AFTN AND POSES
MANY...MANY PROBLEMS. NO DOUBT POTENTIAL ACTIVE SVR WX DAY SLATED
OVR ERN THIRD OF CWA BY MID AFTN. OTHERWISE WIND POTENTIAL IS HUGE
ESP GIVEN MECHANICAL EFFECTS OF DEEP MIXING POST DRYLINE WITH TEMPS
TO SOAR ACCORDINGLY. COULD VERY WELL BE A BONAFIDE DUST STORM COME
SUN AFTN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED
FORECAST W/ INDICATIONS OF COOLER AND WETTER STILL ON
TARGET...THOUGH DETAILS LESS CLEAR THAN 24HRS AGO. RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF HAS FALLEN APART..W/ ECMWF BRINGING A
STRONGER WAVE ONTO THE PLAINS TUE. STILL BELIEVE SMALL POPS LOOK
OKAY WITH KS COUNTIES LOOKING TO BENEFIT THE MOST PER PROGGED WARM
FRONT POSITION. MORE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TUE...THOUGH MAY SEE A BREAK
IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY W/ SRN PLAINS SYS LIFTING NE AND MORE SIG
SYS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO ADVANCE ONTO THE PLAINS THU-FRI. DESPITE
SHORTWAVE DETAILS REMAINING UNCLEAR...EXTENDED SLGT MENTION THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD W/ ADVANCE OF MEAN UPPER TROF AXIS INTO CENTRAL
CONUS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

&&

$$