Up to 1,200 tornadoes forecast this year

[senorpepr]

OKLAHOMA CITY, March 30 (UPI) -- National forecasters in Oklahoma say the nation could see up to 1,200 tornadoes this year, slightly above the average for the past three years.

Joe Schaefer, director of the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, said Tuesday they base their estimate on recent history because there is no reliable scientific way to predict the volatility of the season.

Schaefer said so far this year tornado activity has been slow. A tornado outbreak last week in Oklahoma and Kansas caused minor damage. There have been 26 tornadoes reported this month nationwide. May is the most active month in most years.

Schaefer said forecasters can now give the public up to a 15-minute tornado warning compared to only three minutes in 1978. This gives people more time than ever to take cover and saves more lives.

Texas Tech University experts say more Americans, especially in tornado country, are buying tornado shelters and more builders are including them in their designs. More schools are also building tornado shelters into their designs.

http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/2 ... -7710r.htm

[Stormless2003]

So far this year, the upper-level pattern has not been conducive for large scale outbreaks at all due to the stubborn western ridge, and this will have to change very soon for the prediction of 1200 tornadoes to even have a chance at verifying. But the long range outlooks are only showing a continuation of the western ridge that has reduced the frequency and intensity of storm systems since early March, so I'd say the final tornado total will more likely fall in the 800-900 range, unless of course a freak storm system comes out of the blue and drops 400 tornadoes in a week's time like we saw last year. But that scenario is extremely rare and probably wont happen again for years to come.

[vbhoutex]

So far this year, the upper-level pattern has not been conducive for large scale outbreaks at all due to the stubborn western ridge, and this will have to change very soon for the prediction of 1200 tornadoes to even have a chance at verifying. But the long range outlooks are only showing a continuation of the western ridge that has reduced the frequency and intensity of storm systems since early March, so I'd say the final tornado total will more likely fall in the 800-900 range, unless of course a freak storm system comes out of the blue and drops 400 tornadoes in a week's time like we saw last year. But that scenario is extremely rare and probably wont happen again for years to come.

I can think of at least two major outbreaks in the last 5 years. How rare is that? That is not "years to come". HOw did you come up with the 800-900 total?

[Stormless2003]

When I said "rare scenario" I was referring to the storm system we saw in May of last year, the one that stalled out over the central plains and spawned widespread severe weather for 8 consecutive days with no relent, and produced nearly 400 tornadoes in less than a week. Never before in recorded history has such a storm system been observed. And the total of 800-900 is just an ESTIMATE I made based on CPC's long range outlooks which are showing conditions that are less than desirable for an active season, namely a developing el-nino in the Pacific and prolonged warm anomalies over the western third of the country. These same conditions are what caused 2002 to have a relatively inactive spring tornado-wise.

[Lindaloo]

God you people on this site are clueless. When I said "rare scenario" I was referring to the storm system we saw in May of last year, the one that stalled out over the central plains and spawned widespread severe weather for 8 consecutive days with no relent, and produced nearly 400 tornadoes in less than a week. Never before in recorded history has such a storm system been observed. And the total of 800-900 is just an ESTIMATE I made based on CPC's long range outlooks which are showing conditions that are less than desirable for an active season.

I believe you were asked a question and there was no need in the first part of your reply. Not to mention that is a mighty bold statement you made considering the company you are amongst.

[Guest]

God you people on this site are clueless. When I said "rare scenario" I was referring to the storm system we saw in May of last year, the one that stalled out over the central plains and spawned widespread severe weather for 8 consecutive days with no relent, and produced nearly 400 tornadoes in less than a week. Never before in recorded history has such a storm system been observed. And the total of 800-900 is just an ESTIMATE I made based on CPC's long range outlooks which are showing conditions that are less than desirable for an active season.

Oh please tell me your kidding? You of all people to come here to this site and call us clueless and a moderator here that no less? Considering what happend a year ago elsewhere!

You must really have short term memorey!

[vbhoutex]

When I said "rare scenario" I was referring to the storm system we saw in May of last year, the one that stalled out over the central plains and spawned widespread severe weather for 8 consecutive days with no relent, and produced nearly 400 tornadoes in less than a week. Never before in recorded history has such a storm system been observed. And the total of 800-900 is just an ESTIMATE I made based on CPC's long range outlooks which are showing conditions that are less than desirable for an active season, namely a developing el-nino in the Pacific and prolonged warm anomalies over the western third of the country. These same conditions are what caused 2002 to have a relatively inactive spring tornado-wise.

Thanks for clearing up where you got your numbers from. I have to think you are stabbing in the air for the purposes of argument since you are trying to play the "el nino" card here. All indications so far this season are for, at a maximum, a POSSIBLY developing WEAK El Nino late in the Hurricane season so I do not see how that will affect this years tornado totals.

[vbhoutex]

Stormless???? Do I need to ask a direct question to get a response?

[CaptinCrunch]

So far this year in North Central Texas their have been 4 confirmed Tornados and last night we saw golf ball size hail in northern Ft Worth and southern Denten, and one report of baseball size hail just to the northwest of Ft. Worth

It will be a very active spring around here compaired to past years.

[Lindaloo]

There was also baseball sized hail the other evening in Corpus Cristi. Knee deep from what I hear too.

[wx247]

There was also baseball sized hail the other evening in Corpus Cristi. Knee deep from what I hear too.

But that doesn't count.

[Lindaloo]

There was also baseball sized hail the other evening in Corpus Cristi. Knee deep from what I hear too.

But that doesn't count.

Well why not?

[michaelwmoss]

I don't think there really is a certain rhyme and/or reason in predicting the season.

You never know, even with Western Ridge, we still have had several cut-off lows this year that have led to at least isolated severe weather.

If I am not mistaken, one of these cut-off lows produced one of the largest tornado outbreaks in Northern Illinois history.

You just never really know. Last year's major outbreak was also a total surprise. That is how nature is.