ECMWF advertises possible Severe WX situation in Florida...

[Stormsfury]

Next Monday... 998 mb forming in the GOM/Panhandle of Florida...look out ...

[Stephanie]

They need the rain down there - but not like that!

[Josephine96]

Forgive me for being stupid but what is that map trying to say..?

[Stormsfury]

Forgive me for being stupid but what is that map trying to say..?

Initially (on Day 6) a weakening low and stalling front shears out, but a another disturbance swinging around the base of the trough diving into the Central Plains spawns a low pressure in the GOM and rapidly swings into the Panhandle of Florida (active SBJ) ... seting the stage for a POTENTIAL severe weather situation ... a 998 mb low isn't anything to sneeze at this far to the south, that's very impressive for this time of year SHOULD the ECMWF verify ... also, back behind the trough and low, some pretty impressive cold air dives into Western Texas (ala Blue Norther style) ...

IF the ECMWF also should verify, this could spell some significant rainfalls for the region as well as the Southeastern States (Primarily Georgia and the Carolinas) ... extrapolating the 3 day averages, the primary should remain strong enough NOT to force redevelopment off the coast since the HIGH to the North doesn't look to wedge down into the Carolinas this time and the primary low should be strong enough to keep southerly flow across the lower Carolinas.

SF

[Guest]

But has anyone looked at any loops?
The MRF (Wyoming) shows the potential for Severe Weather from the Plains east to Florida during the weekend!
here is the link:
http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/mod ... 2i&C1=pmsl
Look at the temps behind the front dropping south across the Plains, and the wind barbs ahead of the trough. Looks like a severe weather event for the south over the weekend to me.

[Stormsfury]

But has anyone looked at any loops?
The MRF (Wyoming) shows the potential for Severe Weather from the Plains east to Florida during the weekend!
here is the link:
http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/mod ... 2004040500®ION=G202&FCST=all&LEVEL=0&F1=tmpc&C2=none&VEC=brbk&F2=p12i&C1=pmsl
Look at the temps behind the front dropping south across the Plains, and the wind barbs ahead of the trough. Looks like a severe weather event for the south over the weekend to me.

The ECMWF is less impressive with the weekend event ... a weakening 1010mb low over The Carolinas (which shears out, and the trailing front stalls out in response the developing Central Plains trough, in which spawns the more potent low in the GOM/Panhandle of Florida on Day 7...IMHO, the bigger threat ...

The GFS at 18z keeps the heaviest precipitation back into coastal TX, LA, and MS before making a right turn off the MS coast and weakening. The 18z GFS is slightly weaker and further north with the low for next Monday (1000mb) and focuses the primary area of convection across the Western Carolinas with a secondary area of convection heading straight into Central FL off the GOM ...



Drastic difference between the 18z GFS (at 162 hours) and the 12z ECMWF at 168 hours...with the ECMWF faster and more progressive than the 18z GFS which closes off a 500mb low over Western Nebraska. The ECMWF does not close off a 500mb low ...

[Stormsfury]

Also ...

ECMWF paints a strong divergent flow at the 500mb and 200mb level (wind streamlines)

ECMWF Wind Streamlines @ 500mb Level

ECMWF Wind Streamlines @ 200mb level

ECMWF 500mb Level Geopotential Heights - notice the kink in the heights over SE Alabama ... and the ECMWF paints a pretty good placement SFC to 500mb level - features correspond quite nicely ...

SF