Better severe wx threat Wed/Thu

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ALhurricane
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Better severe wx threat Wed/Thu

#1 Postby ALhurricane » Sun Feb 29, 2004 5:10 pm

Model consistency is helping to strengthen the idea of a severe wx event over the southern plains, midsouth, and southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. Another upper low over the SW US will eject out in the central United States and become negatively tilted. The same dynamics that are in place today, will be in place with the next system, possibly even stronger. GFS showing 60-65kt low level jet over Tennessee.

As we all know, the lack of instability curtailed the severe weather threat today. Instablity looks to be present for the upcoming event. A prolonged fetch of southerly winds will pump up 65 degree dewpoints into the souther portions of the country. CAPE values of up to 2000 J/kg could nose into Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee.

Bottom line, the potential exists for a significant severe weather episode. As stated above, model runs are showing some consistency, so it definitely bears watching. Stay tuned.
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Josephine96

#2 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Feb 29, 2004 5:32 pm

Is there any idea if Florida could see some severe weather from the next approaching system..? Or is there no systems headed this way?
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#3 Postby wx247 » Sun Feb 29, 2004 5:33 pm

Not through Wednesday... stay tuned after that...
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#4 Postby Scott_inVA » Sun Feb 29, 2004 5:38 pm

Agreed.

This is near perfect vertical stack with modest CAPES (~800). Limited SVR tonight. :roll:

Scott
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#5 Postby Scott_inVA » Sun Feb 29, 2004 5:42 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Is there any idea if Florida could see some severe weather from the next approaching system..? Or is there no systems headed this way?


Nope.

Neither of these two storms affect FL; Ridging saves the day in Florida.
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Josephine96

#6 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Feb 29, 2004 8:45 pm

Thank you for the tidbit Scott..
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