HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS

[CaptinCrunch]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS LATE
TUESDAY...BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

[Guest]

Looks like NWS FWD has a busy evening coming up, potentially!

[TexasStooge]

Let's see what happens in the next few days.

[CaptinCrunch]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS. FEBRUARY 3,

.DAY ONE...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKS INTO NORTH TEXAS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD. NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[Rockstock]

Actually, I would tend to believe SPC about that, but I think you will get Severe Weather. The closer you are to Witchita Falls,TX, the more Severe the weather will be. Ok first of all, I don't believe SPC for anything. They are people like you and me. Doesn't mean they are smarter. I told everyone about my new developed Math, and been using it for months now. With the Math, I have predicted Severe Events days off, and even how strong they will be.

I have done the Math for near Witchita Falls,TX
THIS EVENT IS FROM 12Z to 18Z Wednesday!
OR 6am to 12pmCST

Here it is. tell me what you think. I tend to be more correct than them. Heck they forecast NO THUNDERSTORM in Southern California where I live, when its clearly present to get them.

Dewpoint Forecast shows a dewpoint at 46= 25%
Surface Temperature will be at 35 degrees= 0%
Low Level Jet inflow at 850mb will be at 30-35 knots= 50%
Surface Moisture Carrying Wind= 100%
700MB Dry Air Carrying wind= 100%
Upper Level Jet Stream will be blowing at 100 knots= 50%
500MB vort values= 40%

Probability of Severe Thunderstorms is 52%
So with that 52% it corresponds with my charts on........

Moderate Severe Thunderstorm Risk
On a weather map, it would be SEVERE red shading.
Thunderstorm probability is 50%

CAPE=0%

HELICITY=500+ VIOLENT TORNADOES POSSBILE!
Hail values.

100%
100%
0%
75%
0%

added together is 275 or...
3/4 inch hail size expected or SEVERE THRESHOLD.

So with that, you have a 50% Chance of Thunderstorms in this forecast period. out of the Thunderstorms that develop will have a 51% chance of becoming Severe. Good Low Level Flow will keep them firing from inflow. A good Jet Dynamic will aid the development as well. Cold Air Aloft will be near -28, so it's cold enough for storms. You will also have a bit of Moisture for these storms. Helicity Levels will reach an Amazing 500+ all over Northern Texas Today, excluding the panhandle of course. So with that high of value the atmosphere has enough rotation with wind with height and speed to support Severe Tornadic Potential. That's my forecast for you from that 6hr Window. Let's see what happens! I do believe Severe Weather is possible. And i've posted here to show the Math again, and test it out on Texas.

Kevin Martin

[CaptinCrunch]

Good job Kevin, there is always a potential for sever weather here in Texas, but as of 11am NWS Ft Worth has stated that the high temp will be lowered by about 5 degrees because of the cloud cover coming in earlier than first forecasted, this will put the high temps for the day in the mid 40's rather than the lower 50's there by decressing the chance for sever weather here tonight and tomorrow. It's looks to be a heavy rain event for us, I just hope the rap around cold will be colder than first thought as well and change some of this rain over to snow.

[TexasStooge]

The chances of snow in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area are taken out of the forecast.