DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2004
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE WRN U.S. ON
SUNDAY SHOULD ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AND SYSTEM CONTINUES E ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY ON
MONDAY. APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JET ENTRANCE REGION
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN REJUVENATION OF EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER
THE NERN GULF/N FL AND SRN GA EARLY MONDAY. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SE OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST LATER IN THE DAY AS A
SURFACE WAVE DEEPENS AND MOVES EWD FROM NEAR HATTERAS.
...NRN AND CNTRL FL...
MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /500-1000 J/KG/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF
ACCELERATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE NWRN GULF/S GA. GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE...NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH VLYS
WILL STRENGTHEN MID LEVEL WSWLY WINDS TO AOA 60 KT OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE STATE...BUT THE MEAN WLY COMPONENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT LARGE
SCALE CONVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE BAND WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE/FORWARD
PROPAGATION ALONG ASSOCIATED GUST FRONTAL SEGMENTS...SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE /LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF FL ON MONDAY. WEAK
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A SMALL PART OF FL MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD
DIMINISH AS SURFACE WAVE ACCELERATES E OFF THE NC CST LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
..CORFIDI.. 01/24/2004
Convective Outlook (Northern and Central Florida)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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ColdFront77
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
JAX 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 25 W PFN 25 SSW CSG 55 NNW AYS 20 ENE SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HUM 45 W SEM 30
ENE ANB 25 ESE AND 40 ESE CLT 20 SW GSB 10 WSW HSE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SDF PAH 35 ENE
VIH 35 W SPI 45 ESE MMO 35 NE FWA 30 SE MFD 35 E CRW 15 SE 5I3 35 S
SDF.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SE AL/SRN GA AND
NRN FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN
U.S. DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW INVOF
WA/ORE/ID AND BAJA CA PHASE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE
COMBINED SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE PLNS AND MS VLY ON
MONDAY...AND ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS
RISE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC CST.
AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH...LIKELY TO
BE OVER NRN OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT
HEADS NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS. FARTHER SE...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
MAY DEVELOP ALONG EXISTING STALLED FRONT OVER AL/SRN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY
AS PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE
ERN CAROLINAS/N GA. THE WAVE SHOULD ACCELERATE E OFF THE CAROLINA
CST MONDAY EVENING.
...SE AL/SRN GA AND N FL...
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/SQUALL LINE NOW OVER LA/MS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND/OR BECOME STATIONARY OVER SRN AL/THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND
THE N CNTRL GULF BY EARLY MONDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERSPREADS
REGION IN WAKE OF UPPER IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.
AS SRN AL/S GA AND THE NWRN GULF EXPERIENCE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH CROSSING THE LWR MS VLY...EXPECT THAT THE
CONVECTIVE BAND WILL REINTENSIFY AND/OR THAT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR OVER REGION. ONSET OF FAVORABLY-TIMED DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE STORMS SHOULD BOOST
SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE NWD/EWD INTO
PARTS OF S GA AND N FL...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. COUPLED WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WSW FLOW ALOFT /500 MB
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 70 KT/...SETUP SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE NRN EDGE OF THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SHARPLY LIMITED BY
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DAMMING OVER THE CAROLINAS NOSING SW INTO
CNTRL GA.
ANY SEVERE THREAT WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS /1/ THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND /2/ REGION OF STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INFLOW SWEEPS E OFF THE GA/CAROLINA CST.
..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
JAX 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 25 W PFN 25 SSW CSG 55 NNW AYS 20 ENE SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HUM 45 W SEM 30
ENE ANB 25 ESE AND 40 ESE CLT 20 SW GSB 10 WSW HSE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SDF PAH 35 ENE
VIH 35 W SPI 45 ESE MMO 35 NE FWA 30 SE MFD 35 E CRW 15 SE 5I3 35 S
SDF.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SE AL/SRN GA AND
NRN FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN
U.S. DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW INVOF
WA/ORE/ID AND BAJA CA PHASE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE
COMBINED SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE PLNS AND MS VLY ON
MONDAY...AND ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS
RISE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC CST.
AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH...LIKELY TO
BE OVER NRN OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT
HEADS NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS. FARTHER SE...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
MAY DEVELOP ALONG EXISTING STALLED FRONT OVER AL/SRN GA. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY
AS PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE
ERN CAROLINAS/N GA. THE WAVE SHOULD ACCELERATE E OFF THE CAROLINA
CST MONDAY EVENING.
...SE AL/SRN GA AND N FL...
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/SQUALL LINE NOW OVER LA/MS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND/OR BECOME STATIONARY OVER SRN AL/THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND
THE N CNTRL GULF BY EARLY MONDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERSPREADS
REGION IN WAKE OF UPPER IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.
AS SRN AL/S GA AND THE NWRN GULF EXPERIENCE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH CROSSING THE LWR MS VLY...EXPECT THAT THE
CONVECTIVE BAND WILL REINTENSIFY AND/OR THAT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR OVER REGION. ONSET OF FAVORABLY-TIMED DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE STORMS SHOULD BOOST
SBCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE NWD/EWD INTO
PARTS OF S GA AND N FL...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. COUPLED WITH ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WSW FLOW ALOFT /500 MB
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 70 KT/...SETUP SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE NRN EDGE OF THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SHARPLY LIMITED BY
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DAMMING OVER THE CAROLINAS NOSING SW INTO
CNTRL GA.
ANY SEVERE THREAT WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS /1/ THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND /2/ REGION OF STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INFLOW SWEEPS E OFF THE GA/CAROLINA CST.
..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2004
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
GRRR I wanna see...I wanna see what tomorrow will bring!
Can we fast forward this thing???????
NWS Jax HWO
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEST OF A ALMA TO LAKE CITY LINE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA BETWEEN 3 AND 5
PM. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
Can we fast forward this thing???????
NWS Jax HWO
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEST OF A ALMA TO LAKE CITY LINE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA BETWEEN 3 AND 5
PM. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
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Josephine96
Remember guys.. It may be doubtful.. But I hate to bring up a day in Central Florida History
February 22nd-23rd 1998
I actually just peaked at this afternoons' discussion. Sounds kinda ominous
MON THROUGH TUES...THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR SOME ACTIVE
WEATHER. UPPER JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
INCREASING UPPER DIFF/DIV OVER THE REGION...WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
140KT MAX OF JET AND UPPER TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. FLOW
THRU LOWER LEVELS WILL VEER TO S-SW AND INCREASE INTO MONDAY...AND
ADVECT A GOOD FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM UP QUICKLY MON IN SW FLOW WITH SOME AREAS TOPPING
80 DEGREES. WHILE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE NORTH
OF EC FL...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT
TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO EC FL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TRENDS FROM THE 12Z MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MON NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUES...BUT WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF FAST MOVING
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP DAYTIME AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN OVER THE AREA AND
WIND FIELDS/SHEAR STRENGTHENS. HAVE INCREASED POPS/STORM COVERAGE IN
GRIDS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT. 12Z GFS/ETA A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PRECIP
BAND CLEARING OUT TUES AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT.
February 22nd-23rd 1998
I actually just peaked at this afternoons' discussion. Sounds kinda ominous
MON THROUGH TUES...THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR SOME ACTIVE
WEATHER. UPPER JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
INCREASING UPPER DIFF/DIV OVER THE REGION...WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
140KT MAX OF JET AND UPPER TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. FLOW
THRU LOWER LEVELS WILL VEER TO S-SW AND INCREASE INTO MONDAY...AND
ADVECT A GOOD FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA. TEMPS
WILL ALSO WARM UP QUICKLY MON IN SW FLOW WITH SOME AREAS TOPPING
80 DEGREES. WHILE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE NORTH
OF EC FL...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT
TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO EC FL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TRENDS FROM THE 12Z MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MON NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUES...BUT WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF FAST MOVING
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP DAYTIME AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN OVER THE AREA AND
WIND FIELDS/SHEAR STRENGTHENS. HAVE INCREASED POPS/STORM COVERAGE IN
GRIDS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT. 12Z GFS/ETA A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PRECIP
BAND CLEARING OUT TUES AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT.
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Anonymous
Looks like decent storms moving into the panhandle area---and they may actually hold together today! 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
611 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA
* UNTIL 700 AM CST
* AT 609 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER PALMETTO
BEACH...AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* THE TORNADO PRODUCING STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
ROMAR BEACH BY 635 AM CST
LILLIAN BY 700 AM CST
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...ABANDON VEHICLES AND
MOBILE HOMES AND SEEK A REINFORCED SHELTER. MOVE TO THE LOWEST FLOOR
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR CLOSET. COVER YOUR BODY WITH BLANKETS OR PILLOWS.
IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST MONDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
611 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA
* UNTIL 700 AM CST
* AT 609 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER PALMETTO
BEACH...AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* THE TORNADO PRODUCING STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
ROMAR BEACH BY 635 AM CST
LILLIAN BY 700 AM CST
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...ABANDON VEHICLES AND
MOBILE HOMES AND SEEK A REINFORCED SHELTER. MOVE TO THE LOWEST FLOOR
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR CLOSET. COVER YOUR BODY WITH BLANKETS OR PILLOWS.
IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST MONDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
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ColdFront77
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
CEW 15 N DHN 50 NE MGR 30 NNE SSI ...CONT... 35 NNE MLB SRQ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LCH 20 ESE LFT
45 E MCB 30 N MEI 20 WSW CBM 30 SE PBF ARG MVN MIE 25 WSW ZZV 30 SW
HSS 25 SSE SPA 25 NW SOP 35 SE ECG.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PBI 55 SSE
FMY.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL...SRN
GA AND SERN AL...
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS TODAY AND LOWER MO
VALLEY TONIGHT. STRONG MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS ARE ROTATING AROUND
TROUGH ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SERN U.S. WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NRN AR. THE MOIST
GULF AIR MASS IS CONFINED TO THE AREA OF THE ERN GULF STATES TO THE
S OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WHICH RUNS E/W ACROSS SRN GA
INTO CENTRAL MS.
...NRN FL/SRN FL AND SERN AL...
THE ETA SUGGEST THAT ONLY SLOW EWD DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE
AREA OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN
AL/SWRN GA UNTIL TONIGHT. AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WIND
MAX ROTATES ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF NRN FL/SRN GA AND OFFSHORE BY 12Z
TUE.
DUE TO LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF CURRENT CONVECTION IS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
STRONG WITH 30-40 KT LLJ COUPLED WITH 500MB WINDS OF 70-80 KT
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES THRU MUCH OF FORECAST
PERIOD. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD AND EXTEND S INTO NRN FL
EARLY TONIGHT AS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS SPREAD EWD ACROSS
THIS AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
...WRN TN VALLEY...
HAVE CONTINUED A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PORTIONS OF WRN TN VALLEY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AREA OF
STRONG ASCENT SPREAD EWD WITH UPPER S/WV TROUGH. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED...GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT THE COLD AIR ALOFT
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH TROUGH DO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
..HALES/BANACOS.. 01/26/2004
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ColdFront77
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1110 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
262200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1110 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
CONSIDERABLY. SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE EVENING. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WHEN A LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HIGHER SEAS.
DUE TO STRONG WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE...ADDITIONALLY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO.
CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT PERSONS SHOULD
REMEMBER A SAFE PLACE WHERE TO CAN GO SHOULD THEIR AREA BE
THREATENED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS READINGS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 DEGREES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES TO BE COLDER
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FROST...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ORLANDO WHERE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO OCCUR.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1110 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
262200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1110 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
CONSIDERABLY. SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE EVENING. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WHEN A LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HIGHER SEAS.
DUE TO STRONG WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE...ADDITIONALLY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO.
CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT PERSONS SHOULD
REMEMBER A SAFE PLACE WHERE TO CAN GO SHOULD THEIR AREA BE
THREATENED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS READINGS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 DEGREES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES TO BE COLDER
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FROST...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ORLANDO WHERE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO OCCUR.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
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Rainband
Maybe some wind
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
210 PM EST MON JAN 26 2004
.CURRENTLY...SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH TLH. CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER
THE CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FA BY TUE
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT WITH SOME DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. A FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS BEING 30-35 NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER
WITH WINDS STILL AROUND 10 MPH...MAY BE MORE OF A WIND CHILL
PROBLEM. WILL LEAVE TO MID SHIFT TO DECIDE.
.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL REBOUND THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
210 PM EST MON JAN 26 2004
.CURRENTLY...SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH TLH. CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER
THE CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND CLEARING THE SOUTHERN FA BY TUE
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT WITH SOME DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AS A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. A FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS BEING 30-35 NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER
WITH WINDS STILL AROUND 10 MPH...MAY BE MORE OF A WIND CHILL
PROBLEM. WILL LEAVE TO MID SHIFT TO DECIDE.
.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC FRIDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL REBOUND THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
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ColdFront77
ColdFront77 wrote:EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1110 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
262200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1110 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
CONSIDERABLY. SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE EVENING. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WHEN A LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HIGHER SEAS.
DUE TO STRONG WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE...ADDITIONALLY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO.
CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT PERSONS SHOULD
REMEMBER A SAFE PLACE WHERE TO CAN GO SHOULD THEIR AREA BE
THREATENED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS READINGS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 DEGREES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES TO BE COLDER
THURSDAY MORNING WITH MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FROST...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ORLANDO WHERE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO OCCUR.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
Sorry John and everyone, I realized shortly after I posted the above statement, that you (John)did so in the last 4 hours, as well. I bolded some interesting information.
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