Slight risk for severe today in E NC and E VA

[weatherlover427]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2003

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ILM 30 NNE CRE 20 SSE SOP 45 NNE RDU 20 W DCA 25 WSW DOV 20 E SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CAR 35 N 3B1 35 NNW AUG 10 ESE PSM ...CONT... 25 SE VRB 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 30 WNW PFN 15 ENE CSG 30 WNW AND 45 NE EKN 20 SE PSB 25 ENE ROC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC THROUGH ERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH
THE ERN STATES FRIDAY AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ROUNDING ITS BASE EJECTS ENEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. ATTENDANT MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AND SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY INTO THE NERN STATES. AS LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NEWD...THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...ERN NC THROUGH ERN VA...

MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT ONSHORE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATER THIS MORNING. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG DEVELOPING MOIST AXIS FROM ERN NC THROUGH ERN VA...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING CAN OCCUR...BUT MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. BELIEVE ETA SHALLOW CONVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER INSTABILITY THAN WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED ALONG ERN NC COAST.

AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD...STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LINE OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FROM PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY WITH SLY 50-60 KT AROUND 1 KM AND SSWLY 80-100 KT AT 5 KM. THE FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE EXPECTED LINE. THOUGH THIS ORIENTATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT...IT DOES SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR NNEWD MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE GROUND WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY/MID EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

..DIAL.. 11/28/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
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