Florida Weather

[chaser1]

I'm not sure what the threshold temp is for Orchids but peeps should plan on bringing those in this weekend wherever you might happen to live in Florida (with possible exception to the lower Keys?)

[FireRat]

While this is now in the past, the thermometer at Miami International Airport dropped to 44°F on the morning of January 16, at 7:13 AM.

That was the first time that had happened since January 2022, and only the ninth time since 2011.

Currently, NWS Miami forecasts this to be surpassed both on the morning of Sunday, January 31, and the morning of Monday, February 1!

So far this January, we have already seen four separate sub-50 degree days in Miami.

https://i.imgur.com/UA0XvBa.png

Its sure is being a notable winter for the Miami area, and now it's about to get real interesting! I still remember the 2010 winters when I lived down in Broward, saw many nights in the 30s and even a few in the 20s well inland. Iguanas suffered greatly that year, and now they might be in big trouble this coming weekend if the models verify

[cycloneye]

Wow.

 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/2016497998201540676

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2016562344181076268

[HurricaneBelle]

Flurries now officially in the NWS Tampa forecast - from this afternoon's AFD:

MODELS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF CYCLE HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED THE PROBABILITY
OF SEEING SOME GULF EFFECT FLURRIES OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER OUR
COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND
A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WATER TEMPERATURES AND AIR TEMPERATURE.
EVEN THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE TIME WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT FLURRIES. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF
WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO PRODUCE ANY FLURRIES. RIGHT
NOW WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A 20 PERCENT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN PINELLAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COAST
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR RIGHT NOW. WE WANT TO
EMPHASIZE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS ANY SNOW THAT
DOES FALL WILL MELT AS SOON AS IT TOUCHES THE GROUND.

[FireRat]

Big dawg cold outbreak incoming indeed, holy cow. Feb 1996 coming back to haunt South FL, 30 years later. Brutal freeze on par with 2010 too. Wild times ahead for you guys down there!

[Abdullah]

The last time Miami International Airport got below 40 degrees Fahrenheit was December 2010.

Models are locking in that both February 1 and February 2 will break this barrier again. More than a 90% chance for both days. Seems like 95% to 97% at this point that it's gonna happen at least on one of those two days.


https://i.imgur.com/LpiSyun.png

https://i.imgur.com/wyaublX.png

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NOAADrought/status/2016913989716922625

[chaser1]

Well if for no other reason then entertainment purposes, keep an eye on each 6 hourly update of the GFS for forecast Florida frozen precipitation or snowfall! Consecutive model runs appearing to drag snow across anywhere between the Panhandle, Clearwater, Orlando, Jax, and even Okeechobee around the final days of this month. The cold air dropping south is looking pretty real but just "how cold" along with where low pressure develops, timing of frontal passage, etc are anyone's guess.

Perhaps a fun "Furthest South Snow Event Poll" ?
- No Snow for Florida or Southeast Georgia
- Limited to West Florida Panhandle
- from Tallahassee, east to Jacksonville
- from Cedar Key, to Ocala to Palm Coast
-from Spring Hill, to Orlando area, to Titusville
-Sarasota to Melbourne
Ft Myers, to Lake 'O, to Stuart and all areas South of there.

Hmm, no takers? Okay, I'll throw in. Some type of frozen precipitation by Feb 5, from Cedar Key to Titusville

Think I'm gonna hedge my guess for some flurries to be spotted a tad further south then Cedar Key, to instead occur from Hudson southward to about Palm Harbor Saturday night between 10:00 p.m. - 2:00 a.m . Air temps aloft will be plenty cold even though ground level temps may still be well above freezing (mid 30's?).

Edit: 0Z NAM (3KM resolution) does depict a very small area of frozen precipitation in the Tampa area between 3Z - 4Z Saturday night

[FireRat]

This just keeps looking more brutal for South FL

Indeed, the greatest cold wave since 2010 incoming, and could be on par with Feb 5 1996 especially since it will be the start of February as well. Still remember TWC showing a wind chill of 16 degrees in Fort Lauderdale one of those cold 1996 mornings, likely 2/5/96. Brrr-utal.

Y'all stay warm!

[Abdullah]

The western part of Miramar, FL*, where I live, at just had its forecast low temperature Sunday morning bumped down to 32.

*Didn't say the whole city since East of I-75 it's at 33