Texas Spring 2024

[bubba hotep]

From what I can determine, the May 25, 2024 Valley View, Texas EF-2 tornado (preliminary rating from Fort Worth NWS) is now the deadliest tornado in the country so far for the year 2024.

With 7 confirmed deaths, it surpasses the Greenfield, Iowa EF-4 tornado on May 21, 2024 that killed 5 people.

Just horrible news. Prayers for those impacted.

[Anti-freeze]

An EF2 that was more than a half mile wide south of Valley View. And it wasn't just manufactured homes, some typical $300-500k new builds destroyed on county road 200.

[Brent]

I swear 2024 is gonna go down as the year of the nighttime tornadoes. I mean I wasn't even paying attention here(it was after 930 and nothing looked that great) and then all the sudden the far end of the metro had a tornado and 2 dead apparently

And as bad as it was in DFW it's hard to imagine a few miles further south would have been many times worse

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/nwsfortworth/status/1794896280369692880

[869MB]

I swear 2024 is gonna go down as the year of the nighttime tornadoes. I mean I wasn't even paying attention here(it was after 930 and nothing looked that great) and then all the sudden the far end of the metro had a tornado and 2 dead apparently

And as bad as it was in DFW it's hard to imagine a few miles further south would have been many times worse

Brandon Houck ⚡️
@HouckisPokisewx
·
2m

TORNADO EMERGENCY for Dawson Springs Kentucky large violent tornado moving through the north end of the town Thai is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION KHPX - Super-Res Reflectivity 2 9:39 PM Super-Res Velocity 1 9:42 PM #kywx

https://x.com/HouckisPokisewx/status/1794907573088358443

[869MB]

https://x.com/TOWWeather/status/1794909563030057296

[HockeyTx82]

https://x.com/TOWWeather/status/1794909563030057296

I'm not seeing anything

[869MB]

https://x.com/TOWWeather/status/1794909563030057296

I'm not seeing anything

That's because it appears the original poster deleted his original tweet with an alleged picture of the wedge tornado as it passed just to the north of Dawson Springs, KY.

[snownado]

Looking at the list of top 10 warmest Springs for DFW, once 2024 officially closes out this week, 7 of the top 10 warmest Springs will have occured within the last 20 years.

And yes, there's a chance this Spring could end up warmer than 2022 (the last few days of May will challenge that though).

[HockeyTx82]

We just got bumped up to a slight risk mainly for hail. DFW and SW.

Buckle up

[Ntxw]

Dewpoints ridiculous out there upper 70s.

[bubba hotep]

Dewpoints ridiculous out there upper 70s.

Have a feeling today might be a sneaky day for DFW

[Cpv17]

Dewpoints ridiculous out there upper 70s.

80°DP here. Highest I’ve had in a long time.

[bubba hotep]

HiRes models showing b/w 4-6k+ CAPE across DFW later this afternoon

[Ntxw]

I don't think much will happen today. Just hot and extremely humid for most. A few storms may try along the Red River and southeastward but not a lot of mechanism for lift. Tomorrow will be an MCS type system coming from the NW, with such high DPs should be proficient rain producers.

[txtwister78]

Looking forward to cashing in on some rain this week across South Central Texas as our heat high begins to break down into Mexico.

Bonus opportunity today should we manage to get a few storms to fire.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 1017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...portions of north/central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 271904Z - 272130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
afternoon. Very large hail in the 2.75 to 4 inch diameter range will
be possible along with strong gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch
will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A roughly west to east oriented surface boundary is
noted across north Texas this afternoon. To the south of this
boundary, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are prevalent.
Strong heating into the 90s F of this very moist boundary-layer and
very steep midlevel lapse rates is supporting strong to extreme
destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/kg). Visible satellite has shown
an increase in coverage of cumulus over the region, with areas of
vertical development along the boundary and within a band of
low-level confluence to the southwest of the Metroplex. While
large-scale ascent will remain somewhat modest, increasing
thunderstorm activity across northeast Mexico and increase in
midlevel moisture impinging on south-central TX per latest water
vapor imagery suggests some modest ascent is increasing over the
region.

Once convection deepens sufficiently, updrafts will likely grow
vigorously given large instability and very steep midlevel lapse
rates. Vertical shear will support supercells, with long/straight
hodographs within this thermodynamic environment favoring very large
hail. Locally strong to severe gusts may also accompany the
strongest cells. Timing and coverage of severe storms is still a bit
uncertain, but expected storms to develop by around 4pm CDT. While
coverage may be sparse, potential for significant hail will likely
require a watch issuance in the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

[txtwister78]

This seems more likely out of the two regions in my opinion. Slight risk added further southwest into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau.

 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1795180946330935419

[South Texas Storms]

Looking forward to cashing in on some rain this week across South Central Texas as our heat high begins to break down into Mexico.

Bonus opportunity today should we manage to get a few storms to fire.

I sure hope the likely MCS stays west of the hardest hit areas tomorrow. Not liking the 18z HRRR solution of Houston getting hit and the Hill Country missing out again...

[bubba hotep]

SPC mesoanalysis showing a bullseye right over DFW with an SCP of 15+