Texas Spring 2024

[bubba hotep]

Storms firing off the dryline in West Texas.

[Brent]

First tornado watch of the day goes to Texas

[ElectricStorm]

Wonder if these early cells in TX will spit out outflow/anvils into OK and potentially affect the environment there for later. Something to watch I guess, though I wouldn't put much confidence in that

[bubba hotep]

Wonder if these early cells in TX will spit out outflow/anvils into OK and potentially affect the environment there for later. Something to watch I guess, though I wouldn't put much confidence in that

The other question - do they survive in to the DFW area?

[Brent]

PDS watch coming further north

[bubba hotep]

HiRes models show the cells generally moving NE and then hooking back E/SE. That would make the cell around Munday, TX, the one to watch for DFW. Luckily, I've been swinging and missing all svr season with these guesses lol

[HockeyTx82]

SPC put out an update.... hatched Tornado now for parts DFW.

This seems to be escalating quickly.

[Cpv17]

SPC put out an update.... hatched Tornado now for DFW.

This seems to be escalating quickly.

It honestly doesn’t surprise me. Models had some pretty impressive storms blowing up much further south than what was originally expected. Just as I suspected, the mdt risk just got expanded further south.

[Anti-freeze]

Brutal 76 to 78 dewpoints across DFW right now.

[Anti-freeze]

Tor warns south of Tuscola and north of Throckmorton

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like there was a brief tornado SW of Frederick, OK. Tight couplet and CC drop for a few scans before quickly fading

[rwfromkansas]

Splitting again. N and south sections.

[869MB]

The thunderstorms that are breaking out in NW Oklahoma will need to be watched very closely for the next few hours because they should remain discreet as the low level jet begins to ramp up over the next hour or two.

[869MB]

The one saving grace for the Northern portions of Oklahoma may be the SW Oklahoma storms may cut off some of the instability potential by spreading anvil debris clouds over those areas before the dry line pushes through.

[snownado]

Splitting again. N and south sections.

Is that really a surprise though?

[869MB]

Nonetheless the latest HRRR 21Z run is depicting one of those NW Oklahoma cells could still pose a potential threat for the Kansas/Oklahoma border region.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like storms will mostly miss DFW again. The 21z from FWD showed 6k+ CAPE, but it looks like it will go untapped today. The one cell that did form almost due east of DFW raced off to the NE and merged with the cell to its north. That northern cell was taking on some SE motion but has since taken more of NE component to it's motion since the merger.

[ElectricStorm]

Not feeling concerned right now in Norman, dying cell approaching but probably won't do much here.

But we'll see of course

Edit: Removed the last part, looks like we may have an attempt at another round further west

[bubba hotep]

Both the cell to the NW and SW of DFW are currently tornado warned. Dr. Timmer has video of the northern tornado.

[ElectricStorm]

Well that'll do it for the OKC metro unless that dying storm comes back to life, looks like my suspicions with the early convection was correct. Glad we didn't end up with anything nasty. Overall threat remains though, as we have a confirmed tornado near Ardmore