Florida weekend and extended weather outlook

[Amanzi]

Florida Daily Weather Discussion
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

#2003-32 Published Friday 02/21/03 At 11:00 AM EST

We saw another very warm day on Thursday 02/20/03 with maximim temperatures
reaching the low to mid 80's across the peninsula. The warmest reading was 89
deg. in Kenneth City, with 85 deg. here in SW Plant City and also Avon Park and
St. Leo.

With the warm front across the northern peninsula and a strong S-SW wind today
temperatures should surge into the 80's again, with a 30-40% chance of
thunderstorms. NWS Tampa Bay said it best for thunderstorm probabilities today.

....KTBW SOUNDING RATHER UNSTABLE THIS MORNING...WITH CAPE VALUE NEAR 1500 AND
LI AT -4.3. MODIFIED SOUNDING FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 AND DWPTS IN THE U60S
LEAVES LI'S AT -6 AND HEALTHY CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE AND CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON CONVERGENCE AS A
TRIGGER.....

Looking at the next three day period of Friday-Sunday 02/21-23/03, we are
looking at another intense El Nino enhanced winter storm system tracking across
the deep south and then up the U.S. East Coast. Unfortunately all dynamics are
in place for the largest severe weather outbreak across the deep south since
November 2002. F5 finger of God tonado potential! Much of the same region that
saw 20-50" of snowfall last weekend will see snowfall melting heavy rainfall and
big time flood potential. With another round of bitterly cold Arctic air getting
involved, some areas will see an ice storm and even more snow.

Here in Florida the best chance of severe weather be be across the north during
the day Saturday, as best dynamics will coincide with the added instability from
the Sun. The bulk of the heavy weather will be across the central and southern
peninsula late Saturday into early Sunday, reducing severe weather chances.
However severe weather is still a distinct possibility for the peninsula.
Much cooler weather returns for much of the state on Monday 02/24/03.

Looking down the road during the next 10 days we should see a very changeable
period of weather with both warm and cold spells and bouts of heavy
precipitation and severe weather, as the teleconnection pattern signals of El
Nino and it's enhanced subtropical jet stream (-SOI) tanks at it's lowest value
of the current event, in conjunction with a return to a negative North Atlantic
Oscillation (-NAO), which promotes colder low pressure troughing in the eastern
U.S.

Best rain chances for Florida during the period will be on or around Friday
02/28/03, Sunday 03/02/03 and Tuesday 03/04/03.

Thomas Giella
Plant City, FL, USA
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm

[chadtm80]

OMG i havent seen clouds this Black in a while. Getting realy nasty over my area right now. Not going to last much longer but its been raining for about an hour. Getting lightning and thunder too.. Cant wait to see what tommorow brings. hehe

[Amanzi]

YEP, I just looked at the radar Chad looks pretty nasty where you are, I think I'm next inline.......WHOOO

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kjax.shtml

[Rainband]

DAY ONE...THIS EVENING:

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET OVER
INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...MAINLY IN HIGHLANDS...POLK...AND
SUMTER COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...
...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...

STORMS...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AND MOVE STEADILY TOWARDS THE
SUNCOAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THE LINE WILL
REACH THE NATURE COAST BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM...THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY 7
PM...SARASOTA AND BRADENTON BY 8 PM...AND THE FORT MYERS AREA
BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM.

SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH THROUGH LEVY
COUNTY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. FARTHER
SOUTH...STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AS THE
LINE MOVES IN. ALL STORMS WILL CONTAIN OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

TIDES...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FEET AHEAD OF THE LINE. TIDES
WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST.

SHOULD THE LINE DEVELOP AND REMAIN STRONG AS IT CROSSES THE COOLER
SHELF WATERS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...ALLOWING THE HIGH WATERS TO MOVE ONSHORE.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WOULD BE FROM THE SHORELINE OF PASCO
THROUGH LEVY COUNTIES. HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SUNCOAST ARE GENERALLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTENSITY
AND SPEED OF THE LINE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES OR WARNINGS SATURDAY.

[HurricaneGirl]

Frontal Boundaries, Preliminary Squall Lines, Multi-SuperCells and Bow Echo Segments. I love it!! Tomorrow should be very interesting indeed. Can't wait! It's already raining here in Jax.