Friday across the Gulf States Upgraded to Moderate Risk

[Stormsfury]

No big changes to my prognostic discussion from earlier so that will be the last post ...

This is Friday's outlook for SPC - Upgraded Risk to Moderate along the Gulf Coast States.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
SERN TX...MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SRN MISSISSIPPI...SWRN ALABAMA...AND
THE FAR WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM 40 NE CRP 40 WNW VCT 30 SSE AUS SHV 15 E SEM 20 SSE CEW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 SSE DRT 30 ENE JCT 15 NW TXK 20 N PBF 20 SE MEM 30 WSW MSL
25 W GAD 30 ESE TOI PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP 30 N GDP
30 WNW BGS 35 W MWL 15 SE FSM 20 ESE UNO 35 ESE MDH 10 NW SDF
35 NNW LOZ 30 WSW HSS 35 WNW CAE CRE ...CONT... 10 NNE MLB
10 WSW SRQ.

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING FROM
SERN TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO
PER WV IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST SW OF THE TX BIG BEND AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN TX TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON DAY 2. DEVELOPING LOW INITIALLY ALONG THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO ERN TX BY 22/00Z...WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO NRN LA TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVE EWD FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN GULF.

...SRN/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE NWD INTO SRN/ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MID
60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS NERN TX/NRN LA
INTO CENTRAL MS/AL...WITH UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
OVER MUCH OF TX/LA WITHIN REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG AND NORTH
COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN TX INTO SRN LA. THESE STORMS
WILL POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREAT IN THE MORNING.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON
FROM CENTRAL TX/MIDDLE TX COAST AND SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED RESULTING IN RAPID
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE STORMS AS A SQUALL LINE/SUPERCELLS DEVELOP EWD INTO SERN
TX/LA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS/AL TO THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE LIKELY...WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE FROM SERN TX
INTO LA GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..PETERS.. 02/20/03

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.

VALID 221200-231200

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN AL...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC...AND SOUTHEAST NC.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM
NORTHERN MS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY EVENING. VERY STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY MODE AT THIS TIME IS A
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS LINE WILL
LIKELY SWEEP FROM AL TO THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE PERIOD.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WIND FIELDS WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART.. 02/20/03

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z

[Aslkahuna]

when one looks at the WV imagery tonight and notices how that system now just south of me is developing.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

when one looks at the WV imagery tonight and notices how that system now just south of me is developing.

Steve

Exactly Steve, IMO, it's closing off at 500mb ...
Very impressive storm the East will have to contend with ...

Satellite Loop (Water Vapor)
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[southerngale]

It's not supposed to be severe here until Friday/early Saturday, but we have been getting some heavy duty thunderstorms. I was out in it and got home about 20 minutes ago. We were driving 40mph on the freeway and I felt like I was speeding. :o
Anyway, I am hoping the electricity doesn't go out. It went out once about 5 minutes ago but only for a few seconds. I just hope this doesn't become a flooding problem for me as we've had to evacuate several times already in the 3 1/2 years we've lived here because Boggy Creek (Pine Island Bayou) floods and we'd be trapped back here if we stayed. It is POURING here!

I'll check the rain gauge when it lets up.