MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 091910Z - 091945Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS/NWRN MO AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THIS REGION. WW MAY BE REQUIRED
SHORTLY.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN
NEB SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS TO THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. AIR MASS EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE CAP SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD
PER VIS IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ALSO SHOW WEAKENING CIN ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN KS. SRN EXTENT OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH... MOVING INTO
SWRN IA ATTM...IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES A FEW STRIKES DURING THE LAST HOUR
OVER CENTRAL KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED
STORMS.
..PETERS.. 07/09/2003
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
39099712 40169573 39439411 38169487 37309635 37599883
38529771
IF a watch is posted, I will post it, and radars. I'll let Harry take a break, i'll cover my area.
Watch this thread folks, you may see the infamous bubble. :o
David
Good luck and keep us updated! 
