Severe Weather for Gulf Coast Dec 28th,07

[Weatherfreak14]

Already three tornado warnings have been issued this morning and everythings to be in shape for a possible severe weather event today. There should be enough shear in place over LA,AL,MS areas for some isolated tornados and some straight line wind damage.





SPC AC 281601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS SE
LA...SE MS...AL...EXTREME NW GA...

...SE LA/MS/AL AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL EJECT
NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS LA/MS/AL TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD/NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS OF MID MORNING...WITH LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
REACH N AS NE AL AND NW GA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS
REVEALED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM...COMBINED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS...WILL
SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.

THE 40-50 KT LLJ CORE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD AWAY FROM THE WARM
SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SE LA/MS AND AL
THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS
WITHIN THE BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHILE OTHER
MORE ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM FROM SE LA
NEWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL AL. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREATS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SEVERE STORM THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

..THOMPSON.. 12/28/2007

[RL3AO]

The radar indicated tornado warning was breaking news on CNN. I would say it must be a slow news day, but we know thats not true.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

Code: Select all

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 745
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA
          THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
          SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
          SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL 600
   PM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
   TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF ANNISTON
   ALABAMA TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA.  FOR
   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE LA INTO SE MS AND CENTRAL AL.
   FARTHER SE...PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN
   AL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
   SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
   STORMS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   BE THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREATS.


[White Lighten]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

TORNADO WATCH 745 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
035-037-039-041-047-051-053-055-065-073-081-085-087-091-097-099-
101-105-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-129-131-290000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0745.071228T1645Z-071229T0000Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR
BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK
BUTLER CALHOUN CHAMBERS
CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE
CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE
ESCAMBIA ETOWAH HALE
JEFFERSON LEE LOWNDES
MACON MARENGO MOBILE
MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY
PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL
SHELBY ST. CLAIR TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX

[Dionne]

Squall line came through here a little over an hour ago.....wasn't much to it.....brief heavy rain....not much wind.....short duration. It looked more impressive on doppler.

[Weatherfreak14]

It seems that there is alot of moisture, And there is a huge Temp. difference. An area in MS is 50 and about 80 mi away its in the 70's. This is going to be a very intresting day. Lots a shear around

[Ivanhater]

Very windy in Pensacola today...South wind off the gulf is wicked..very warm and muggy...

[Weatherfreak14]

Very windy in Pensacola today...South wind off the gulf is wicked..very warm and muggy...

Thats the type of wind you should watch out for... I have a feeling we might have one "bad" or strong tornado out of this system.

[HarlequinBoy]

Those storms moved through around 3 AM here and dropped some very small hail and heavy rain.

Hope everyone in the rest of the Gulf Coast states stay safe today!

[White Lighten]

http://intellicast.com/Storm/Severe/One ... imate=true

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecvs.html

those breaks in the clouds will contribute to destabilization, watch for the line of storms in MS beginning to enter western AL becoming stronger, but they do look rather weak and there doesn't seem to be anything behind that so if we were going to have an active day ahead of us then we would need more convection.

[Dionne]

NWS Jackson, MS has our location under a hazardous weather watch from 11AM-2PM........it's noon right now and we're under blue sky. 71.6F. Go figure?

[Weatherfreak14]

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1151 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ESCATAWPA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CST

* AT 1146 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
  ESCATAWPA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF   
  EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY NORTH OF I-10.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3042 8856 3046 8858 3047 8857 3060 8859
      3063 8840 3052 8840 3051 8838 3043 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 262DEG 25KT 3052 8847

$$

24

[CrazyC83]

Still only 5% tornado risk though per SPC...