October 5-6 - Severe weather outbreak? - Midwest/Plains

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CrazyC83
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Re: October 2 - Severe weather outbreak? - Midwest/Plains

#21 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 02, 2007 7:06 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:Up to 10 tornado reports now, including 2 injuries.

Was there just a tornado warning in Arizona? I was looking at the NWS page and it had a red tornado warning dot in central north Arizona. Coconino County, I think.


Yes I saw that earlier - probably an isolated report.
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#22 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 02, 2007 7:07 pm

Radar says it all. You can see the low over NRN MN and the storms ahead of the cold front.

Image
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#23 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 02, 2007 7:43 pm

Now up to at least 11 reports and three injured. Hopefully there won't be any fatalities though...
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#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:19 am

12 tornado reports appear to be the final count. Now Friday and Saturday could be interesting...
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#25 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 03, 2007 3:33 pm

Day 3 looks interesting. 30% over the NRN half on MN with a hatched area over the SRN half.
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Re:

#26 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:39 pm

RL3AO wrote:Day 3 looks interesting. 30% over the NRN half on MN with a hatched area over the SRN half.


The 15H suggests that there is great uncertainty but the potential exists for a major outbreak.
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#27 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 03, 2007 10:10 pm

One tornado yesterday was quite remarkable:

THE FOLLOWING IS A FINAL ASSESSMENT FOR THE DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED OVER
DOWNTOWN DES MOINES ON 2 OCTOBER 2007.

* EVENT DATE: 2 OCTOBER 2007

* ESTIMATED START TIME: 440 PM CDT

* EVENT TYPE: EF1 TORNADO

* EVENT LOCATION: DOWNTOWN DES MOINES ALONG MULBERRY STREET BETWEEN 13TH STREET
AND 6TH AVENUE.

* PEAK WIND: EF1 TORNADO WITH POSSIBLE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 110 MPH FOR A VERY
BRIEF DURATION AND OVER A VERY SMALL AREA.

* MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 20 YARDS WITH NO DAMAGE OVER MOST OF PATH.

* PATH LENGTH: 8 BLOCKS OR ABOUT 0.6 MILE WITH INTERMITTENT DAMAGE.

* INJURIES: NONE

* FATALITIES: NONE

* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE: TWO POWER POLES SNAPPED AND POWER LINES DOWN AT 13TH AND
MULBERRY. AT 6TH AND MULBERRY...TWO VEHICLES FLIPPED INCLUDING ONE SUV THAT
WAS LIKELY FLIPPED NOSE DOWN DUE TO ENGINE WEIGHT. SUV SLID ABOUT 30 FEET.
EYEWITNESS SAW A SMALL 10 FOOT TREE LIFTED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND ROTATING
AROUND BRIEFLY. MEDIA REPORTED SOME ROOF DEBRIS ON THE SW 9TH OVERPASS AT
MARTIN LUTHER KING PARKWAY...BUT NO BUILDING DAMAGE IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.
SOME BUILDINGS IN THE AREA MULTI STORY AND ROOF DAMAGE WOULD BE DIFFICULT
TO SEE FROM THE STREET.

THE LAST CONFIRMED TORNADO WITHIN THE CITY LIMITS OF DES MOINES OCCURRED
FROM THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF DES MOINES INTO ALTOONA ON 30 MAY 2000.
THAT TORNADO WAS RATED EF1 AND PRODUCED MINIMAL DAMAGE ALONG AN
INTERMITTENT PATH.

DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED AT THE SOUTH ECONOMY PARKING LOT AT THE DES MOINES
AIRPORT AROUND 447 PM CDT ON 2 OCTOBER 2007 HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO A
MICROBURST...OR LOCAL STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA. NO OTHER DAMAGE OCCURRED AT THE AIRPORT OR IN
THE SURROUNDING NEIGHBORHOOD.
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#28 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 03, 2007 10:32 pm

It seems strange to have a hatched area on Day 3, especially this far north.
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#29 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 04, 2007 6:40 am

Day 2 seems like a very complex with Day 3 looking like more of a possible tornado outbreak.
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#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 04, 2007 2:32 pm

Now down to 15% for tomorrow due to uncertainty. (Personally I think 15-hatched is what it should be)
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#31 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 04, 2007 11:26 pm

And now the storms are starting to pop in ERN SD.
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