Major COLD to invade gulf coast states

[Below N.O.]

I hope the GFS is showing us signs of things to come!


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300m.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312m.gif

And look only 300 hours out! :

Below N.O.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ok. This ought to get us going kind of early.

I think everyone is still busy over at the Tropic forum.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I saw this too. Pretty interesting. Now we will need to see if it can become a trend.

Let's hope it does!

[ETXHAMXYL]

I've got some swamp land to sell y'all in Arizona if you even think this is a possiblity of happening. LOL
Even the guys at the accuweather blog were commenting on this one. They were all waiting to see if any other sites were blogging about this long shot.
Not Gonna Happen not even in Jan.

[Miss Mary]

I'm doubtful too and I live all the way the heck up here in the Ohio Valley!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest models are not showing the Gulf coast snowstorm, but they are still looking pretty cold. the 18z GFS even hints at a frost or freeze for Houston next week! Brrr..


^^850mb temps. drop rapidly behind the front^^


^^High pressure right over east TX Thursday morning may equal good radiational cooling and a possible frost/freeze. (surface temp map for 6z [~12am] Thursday morning)^^

[gboudx]

If that verified, grass cutting season will come to an abrupt halt up here. Plants already appear to be going dormant with leaves finally starting to turn colors.

[Portastorm]

If that verified, grass cutting season will come to an abrupt halt up here. Plants already appear to be going dormant with leaves finally starting to turn colors.

Don't worry ... subsequent runs have abandoned this scenario. Ain't happening any time soon. Mild and dry to continue for quite some time in Texas.

[JonathanBelles]

My local NWS is calling for lows in the low 60's on Saturday and Sunday.

[gboudx]

If that verified, grass cutting season will come to an abrupt halt up here. Plants already appear to be going dormant with leaves finally starting to turn colors.

Don't worry ... subsequent runs have abandoned this scenario. Ain't happening any time soon. Mild and dry to continue for quite some time in Texas.

I'll take this weather any day of the year. Although we could use some rain from time-to-time. But highs in the upper-60's to mid-70's? I'll take it!

[LaBreeze]

Local met mentioned this morning that in about two weeks we should be experiencing "winter" conditions here instead of just late "autumn." He also used the term, "big chill." I'm anxious and looking forward to it if it does play out.

[double D]

Oh well. We will have plenty of more times this season to be dissapointed by the prospects of frozen stuff around these parts.

I agree with gboudx, I will be happy if we could just get some rain to wash all this dust out of the air.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like we are still "game on" for some chilly air. The CMC and EURO both show a very cold airmass coming into the plains and the east next week and so do the GFS ensembles. The only model that currently doesn't look promising is the operational 12z GFS. However, this was a flip-flop from it's 6z run and according to the Houston NWS it is an outlier and basically a piece of garbage. Now we shall wait and see if the 18z GFS decides to flip back in line with the other models so that we can have more of a definite consensus.

[Portastorm]

That's still about a week away, buddy.

Don't do it EWG ... don't line up to kick that football. Take it from me ... you'll be sorry!

[Opal storm]

That's still about a week away, buddy.

Yep...sounds nice but it's most likley a bust in the making.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If this busts I will be highly, highly surprised. In fact, I am so confident in this front making it here, that I am willing to officially predict (6 days in advance of the front even arriving) that next Wednesday's high and low temperatures will be at least 7-degrees below normal here in Houston. (Normal high = 75 / Normal low = 52)

If I am wrong, I will gladly eat crow.

BTW: I just want to clarify one thing before it is too late. When I say "Wednesday's" low, I am actually talking about Wednesday night/Thursday morning. So technically, I am actually referring to Thursday morning's low in this prediction, and not Wednesday morning.

[CajunMama]

If this busts I will be highly, highly surprised. In fact, I am so confident in this front making it here, that I am willing to officially predict (6 days in advance of the front even arriving) that next Wednesday's high and low temperatures will be at least 7-degrees below normal here in Houston. (Normal high = 75 / Normal low = 52)

If I am wrong, I will gladly eat crow.

and i've got you quoted so ya can't change your prediction!

[gboudx]

EWG, you gave us your "at least", now how about the "at most", because 7 degrees below normal is not major cold, imo. That would be a high of about 67 here in DFW, which is pretty much what we are expecting today.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG, you gave us your "at least", now how about the "at most", because 7 degrees below normal is not major cold, imo. That would be a high of about 67 here in DFW, which is pretty much what we are expecting today.

It is hard for me to give an "at most" prediction right now. There are just way too many variables involved. From cloud cover to the exact location and strength of the high, etc. it all will affect the temperatures to some degree.

BTW: The average high temperature in DFW for November 7th (which will be next Wednesday's date) is 68˚ and the average low is 48˚. Therefore, if this front manages to bring you temperatures at least 7˚ below normal, then that would mean lower 60s for highs and lower 40s for lows...if not colder. Keep in mind though that my original prediction was for Houston only, so I technically cannot be held responsible if Dallas ends up slightly warmer than that. lol.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston, TX Area forecast discussion...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
307 PM CDT THU NOV 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER SE TX UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FAVORABLE SFC DEWPOINTS...EXPECTING
FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OVER THE SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. LOWEST VISIBILITIES EXPECTED IN THE AREA SOUTH OF I-10.
HAVE MENTIONED DENSE FOG FOR THE SW ZONES AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
MID MORNING FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GREAT ONE. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY SRN
HALF. NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES. ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL AVAILABLE WITH
FRONT (PWS AROUND AN INCH). AT BEST EXPECTING A STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP WITH SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING FROPA. THE
MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FORECAST A STRONG (1030 MB+)
SFC HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS AND THE NW GULF WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
FOLLOWING FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS OF COURSE DIFFERS FROM THIS
SOLUTION. HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAS
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEG COOLER THAN THE 12Z MEXMOS. HOWEVER...IF THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN PARTICULAR
WOULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.