Alrighty. We have yet to feel any significant cool down but it looks like we could have our first real cold front of the season this weekend....the first of many to come! Are the models teasing us or are we actually gonna feel this one?
THE SECOND ISSUE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS QUICKLY AND SHOULD STEER WHAT EVER MAY HAVE DEVELOPED
NORTH AND STARTS DRIVING A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
TEXAS (GFS IN CENTRAL TX BY 00Z SUN- ECMWF IN NW TX -- WE ARE
FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS ARE MOST OF THE SURROUNDING
WFO`S...THANKS FOR ALL THE COORDINATION) SO THAT BY SUNDAY
EVENING WE WILL PLACE THE FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH QUICK
DRYING IN ITS WAKE. MINS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO FEEL LIKE FALL.
Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Sunday and Monday may struggle to break 80˚ with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. It is going to feel great!-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
18Z GFS shows Monday-Wednesday am lows below 15ºC behind front in SETX...
And snow in Northern suburbs Kansas City!
And snow in Northern suburbs Kansas City!
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Extremeweatherguy
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The latest forecast now cancels the weekend front and keeps highs near 90˚ through Sunday and Monday with lows near 70˚. This is very disappointing news!-
AnnularCane
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
What do you mean, no strong front? THERE HAD BETTER BE A FRONT LIKE THEY TOLD US WE WOULD GET. 
(Are you allowed to post here if you don't live in TX?
)
(Are you allowed to post here if you don't live in TX?
)
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
I read Jeff's e-mail this morning and what a disappointment! It looks like we are going to have to wait a little while longer till we get our first real taste of fall. UGH!!!!!!!!
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It looks like we will have some dry air move in the middle part of this week and into this weekend. Right now the forecast is showing low's in the 60's and highs in the middle to upper 80's. From the looks of it, just another little teaser. I sure could use a REAL taste of fall right about now. Do y'all see anything on the horizon? I need some good deer hunting weather. It's hard to get out and bowhunt in this crap. lol
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Extremeweatherguy
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Latest forecast for northern Harris county...
..Basically it looks like we will see temperature more near normal by the end of the week. Nothing "chilly", though a few outlying areas may dip into the upper 50s.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
..Basically it looks like we will see temperature more near normal by the end of the week. Nothing "chilly", though a few outlying areas may dip into the upper 50s.
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JonathanBelles
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
I'm ready for it!
Code: Select all
Columbus Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East wind around 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 76. East northeast wind between 10 and 13 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Northeast wind between 8 and 11 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Northeast wind between 6 and 11 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Northeast wind around 6 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. East northeast wind between 3 and 7 mph.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. East wind at 8 mph becoming north.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Northeast wind between 7 and 9 mph.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 86. North northwest wind between 7 and 10 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
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southerngale
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
Johnny wrote:Alrighty. We have yet to feel any significant cool down but it looks like we could have our first real cold front of the season this weekend....the first of many to come! Are the models teasing us or are we actually gonna feel this one?
THE SECOND ISSUE BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS QUICKLY AND SHOULD STEER WHAT EVER MAY HAVE DEVELOPED
NORTH AND STARTS DRIVING A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
TEXAS (GFS IN CENTRAL TX BY 00Z SUN- ECMWF IN NW TX -- WE ARE
FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS ARE MOST OF THE SURROUNDING
WFO`S...THANKS FOR ALL THE COORDINATION) SO THAT BY SUNDAY
EVENING WE WILL PLACE THE FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH QUICK
DRYING IN ITS WAKE. MINS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO FEEL LIKE FALL.
Sounded good, but unfortunately, not even close to what happened.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Scorpion
Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
It looks like we will have some dry air move into the area on Friday but the big question is the potential for a solid cold front to sweep through the area sometime Monday. It also looks like their will be potential for severe weather ahead of this system. I'm ready for some jacket weather! 
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
Listen up Texans! I'm finally going to make it to the Rennaisance Festival this weekend. How's the weather outlook?
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vbhoutex
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
Jagno wrote:Listen up Texans! I'm finally going to make it to the Rennaisance Festival this weekend. How's the weather outlook?
The weather should be nice, maybe warmer than usual, but nice.
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
Thank you VBHoutex; Hopefully the rain Sunday will hold off until late evening! 
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
It looks like we finally will have good one come on down!!!
From Jeff this morning.....
First strong cold front of the fall season forecast to arrive on Monday.
AM temps. range from 56 at Tomball to 72 at Port Lavaca this morning as dry air mass has settled over the region allowing radiational cooling toward the dewpoint. Dry and fair weather will rule through late Saturday before the change to more unsettled weather by Sunday.
Long wave trough entering the Pacific NW this morning will evolve into deep trough over the western US by Sunday. In response surface flow over the western Gulf and TX will return to the SE with pool of deep tropical moisture ready to surge inland. Feel the moisture surge will be rapid with showers and a few thunderstorms possible by Sunday afternoon as Caribbean moisture is advected into the region.
Early Next Week:
Models have come into much better agreement with the GFS being about ½ right and the ECMWF being about ½ right yesterday. Both now agree that a strong front will cross the state on Monday and that the upper trough will cut-off from the main flow and park over the southern plains for much of next week.
Will tackle the frontal push first: Air mass should be moist and unstable by late Sunday with showers and thunderstorms streaming northward off the Gulf. Strong frontal forcing early to midday Monday should produce a line of thunderstorms along and behind the front. GFS 1035-1040mb surface high bridges the Rockies and drops into the plains ushering in a much colder air mass. Expect frontal passage from early Monday to Monday evening across the area with high temps. being before the front and temps. falling rapidly in the post frontal strong cold air advection.
Onset of cold air advection will be very strong with NAM and GFS showing 925mb winds out of the NW at 40-50kts late Monday into Tuesday. Will likely see sustained surface winds of 20-30mph inland and 25-35mph along the coast. As cold air strikes and spreads across the still warm Gulf of Mexico will likely see winds gust to over gale force. Small craft advisories are a given…and offshore gale warnings may be needed. Inland wind advisories and lake wind advisories will likely be needed.
With the upper trough forecast to cut-off over OK and sit and spin for much of next week, mid to upper level SW flow will upglide over the cold dome at the surface (isentropic lift pattern…overrunning). Clouds and a chance of rain may linger much of next week in the post frontal air mass making conditions damp and cool. We will see if in fact the trough cuts-off as forecast as the GFS 500mb height anomaly over the southern plains for the middle of next week is nearing -21dm.
As for temps. a drop of 10-15 degrees is likely with the frontal passage on Monday. Continued cold air advection and post frontal showers will help lower temps. even more. If the clouds linger highs on Tuesday and Wednesday are much too warm as the models are showing a 10-15 degree diurnal range. For now will show temps. falling into the 60’s Monday afternoon and into the low to mid 50’s by Tuesday morning. For Tuesday, highs in the upper 60’s look possible, but if clouds linger highs near 60 would be more likely. Strong NW winds will make it feel much colder as we have become very accustom to the high temps. and humidity of the last 6 months.
From Jeff this morning.....
First strong cold front of the fall season forecast to arrive on Monday.
AM temps. range from 56 at Tomball to 72 at Port Lavaca this morning as dry air mass has settled over the region allowing radiational cooling toward the dewpoint. Dry and fair weather will rule through late Saturday before the change to more unsettled weather by Sunday.
Long wave trough entering the Pacific NW this morning will evolve into deep trough over the western US by Sunday. In response surface flow over the western Gulf and TX will return to the SE with pool of deep tropical moisture ready to surge inland. Feel the moisture surge will be rapid with showers and a few thunderstorms possible by Sunday afternoon as Caribbean moisture is advected into the region.
Early Next Week:
Models have come into much better agreement with the GFS being about ½ right and the ECMWF being about ½ right yesterday. Both now agree that a strong front will cross the state on Monday and that the upper trough will cut-off from the main flow and park over the southern plains for much of next week.
Will tackle the frontal push first: Air mass should be moist and unstable by late Sunday with showers and thunderstorms streaming northward off the Gulf. Strong frontal forcing early to midday Monday should produce a line of thunderstorms along and behind the front. GFS 1035-1040mb surface high bridges the Rockies and drops into the plains ushering in a much colder air mass. Expect frontal passage from early Monday to Monday evening across the area with high temps. being before the front and temps. falling rapidly in the post frontal strong cold air advection.
Onset of cold air advection will be very strong with NAM and GFS showing 925mb winds out of the NW at 40-50kts late Monday into Tuesday. Will likely see sustained surface winds of 20-30mph inland and 25-35mph along the coast. As cold air strikes and spreads across the still warm Gulf of Mexico will likely see winds gust to over gale force. Small craft advisories are a given…and offshore gale warnings may be needed. Inland wind advisories and lake wind advisories will likely be needed.
With the upper trough forecast to cut-off over OK and sit and spin for much of next week, mid to upper level SW flow will upglide over the cold dome at the surface (isentropic lift pattern…overrunning). Clouds and a chance of rain may linger much of next week in the post frontal air mass making conditions damp and cool. We will see if in fact the trough cuts-off as forecast as the GFS 500mb height anomaly over the southern plains for the middle of next week is nearing -21dm.
As for temps. a drop of 10-15 degrees is likely with the frontal passage on Monday. Continued cold air advection and post frontal showers will help lower temps. even more. If the clouds linger highs on Tuesday and Wednesday are much too warm as the models are showing a 10-15 degree diurnal range. For now will show temps. falling into the 60’s Monday afternoon and into the low to mid 50’s by Tuesday morning. For Tuesday, highs in the upper 60’s look possible, but if clouds linger highs near 60 would be more likely. Strong NW winds will make it feel much colder as we have become very accustom to the high temps. and humidity of the last 6 months.
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wxman57
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
To give you an idea what the models are forecsting, here's a comparison of the 500mb (19,000 ft) level for the ECMWF and GFS for next Wednesday morning at 7am CDT. ECMWF is in yellow, GFS in pink. Intervals on contours are 20 meters. Very similar in that they both show a deep low over northeastern OK
It gets more interesting when I just look at the GFS and add in 500mb thickness levels (blue dashed lines), 6-hour precip amounts (green solid lines), surface pressure isobars (yellow solid lines), and the 850mb freezing line (solid purple line). Generally, to get snow down south, the thickness has to be lower tan about 546 (5460 meters). Look across OK, KS, MO, the thicknesses are WAY below that, and the 850mb freezing line is all the way south to the Red River. Precip is in the 0.1" range (= 1" snow), and that's just for the 6-hour period from 1am to 7am Wednesday. Could be interesting up there next week. Precip amounts in the cold air increase after Wednesday morning as more moisture wraps into the low center.
As for temps in SE TX, models currently forecasting a 21 deg diurnal range! Not likely given the likely overcast sky and cold advection. I agree with Jeff that we could see highs closer to 60 or the low 60s next Tue-Thu.
It gets more interesting when I just look at the GFS and add in 500mb thickness levels (blue dashed lines), 6-hour precip amounts (green solid lines), surface pressure isobars (yellow solid lines), and the 850mb freezing line (solid purple line). Generally, to get snow down south, the thickness has to be lower tan about 546 (5460 meters). Look across OK, KS, MO, the thicknesses are WAY below that, and the 850mb freezing line is all the way south to the Red River. Precip is in the 0.1" range (= 1" snow), and that's just for the 6-hour period from 1am to 7am Wednesday. Could be interesting up there next week. Precip amounts in the cold air increase after Wednesday morning as more moisture wraps into the low center.
As for temps in SE TX, models currently forecasting a 21 deg diurnal range! Not likely given the likely overcast sky and cold advection. I agree with Jeff that we could see highs closer to 60 or the low 60s next Tue-Thu.
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wxman57
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
Take a look at a GFS forecast Skew-T diagram valid 4pm next Wednesday in Oklahoma City. Sort of technical, but I identified the areas of interest. Temperature lines run from the bottom to the upper right. Colder is to the left. Air aloft over OKC is below freezing from about 4000 ft up, and not much above freezing below 4000 ft. Air saturated from the surface to about 20,000-22,000 ft up, meaning overcast and most likely precip.
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Re: Southeast, Texas Fall Weather Kickoff...
Thanks WX...I saw those maps over at KHOU. What is your overrall opinion on what this front will bring down? Around noon today, I saw hundreds and hundreds of Canadien Geese flying south silhouetted against the blue bird skies...very pretty site. This tells me that we have an actual cold front heading down! 
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