3/6-7/2007 Clipper: Snowfall Estimates

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, the modeling firmed up on the system's track. As a consequence, it appears that the clipper's best snows will likely fall from southeast Pennsylvania/southern New Jersey southward to northern Virginia and eastern Maryland. At this time, this does not appear to be a big storm, but a few spots might pick up 4" or more of snow. Just south of there, enough warm air will ensure that the precipitation is mostly or wholly rain. Therefore, Richmond and southward will likely see little or no snow (probably less than a half-inch, if that much).

My initial estimates are:

Allentown: 1"-3"
Baltimore: 1"-3"
Harrisburg: 2"-5"
New York City: 1" or less
Newark: 2" or less
Philadelphia: 2"-4"
Toronto: 1" or less (2.5 cm. or less)
Washington, DC (both DCA and IAD): 1"-3"
Wilmington, DE: 2"-4"

[Category 5]

I like the sound of it.

[angelwing]

I'll take that

[donsutherland1]

Very little to change. After reviewing the 18z and 0z guidance, I'll modestly increase the figures for Baltimore and the high-end for Wilmington, DE. The other figures seem reasonable considering ratios, dynamics, and the cold ground.

My final estimates are:

Allentown: 1"-3"
Baltimore: 2"-4"
Harrisburg: 2"-5"
New York City: 1" or less
Newark: 2" or less
Philadelphia: 2"-4"
Toronto: 1" or less (2.5 cm. or less)
Washington, DC (both DCA and IAD): 1"-3"
Wilmington, DE: 2"-5"

[Category 5]

1.25" here just northeast of Philly.

Areas further south of here got more.

[Stephanie]

I had about 1.5" here at my house.

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

From 3/6/2007 7:15 am:
Allentown: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.2"; Within range
Baltimore: 1"-3"; Actual: 0.8"; Error: 0.2"
Harrisburg: 2"-5"; Actual: 2.0"; Within range
New York City: 1" or less; Actual: 0.5"; Within range
Newark: 2" or less; Actual: 1.0"; Within range
Philadelphia: 2"-4"; Actual: 1.7"; Error: 0.3"
Toronto: 1" or less (2.5 cm. or less); Actual: 0.3" (0.8 cm.); Within range
Washington, DC (both DCA and IAD): 1"-3"; Actual: DCA: 1.8" and IAD: 1.9"; Both within range
Wilmington, DE: 2"-4"; Actual: 1.3"; Error: 0.7"

From 3/7/2007 12:30 am:
Allentown: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.2"; Within range
Baltimore: 2"-4"; Actual: 0.8"; Error: 1.2"
Harrisburg: 2"-5"; Actual: 2.0"; Within range
New York City: 1" or less; Actual: 0.5"; Within range
Newark: 2" or less; Actual: 1.0"; Within range
Philadelphia: 2"-4"; Actual: 1.7"; Error: 0.3"
Toronto: 1" or less (2.5 cm. or less); Actual: 0.3" (0.8 cm.); Within range
Washington, DC (both DCA and IAD): 1"-3"; Actual: DCA: 1.8" and IAD: 1.9"; Both within range
Wilmington, DE: 2"-5"; Actual: 1.3"; Error: 0.7"